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1 GFNORTE: 4Q07 Results February, 2008
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2 1.4Q07 Overview. 2.Asset Quality. 3.Stock Metrics. 4.Final Considerations. Contents
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3 Yearly Recap Performing Loan Growth19%32% 2007 Net Income Stock Price P/BV 2006 6,185 Net Interest Margin 11% 42.25 3.15 7.7% 7% 2.75 7.6% 6,810 45.08 ROA2.8%2.6% ROE24.9%22.6% Book Value13.4216.42 Past Due Loan Ratio1.4%1.5% 22%10% CONSTANT MILLION PESOS
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4 Quarterly Net Income CONSTANT MILLION PESOS 1,685 1,018 4Q044Q05 1,560 4Q06 1,263 4Q07
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5 2006 15% 12% (36%) (28%) (2%) 9%9% 12% 6%6% 798% 1%1% 10% 67% (95%) 2007 17,384 6,028 580 1,292 7,899 25,283 14,432 10,851 1,867 (3,293) 6,810 (2,645) 31 Change 15,069 5,391 900 1,782 8,072 23,141 12,931 10,210 208 (3,255) 6,185 (1,588) 610 QoQ YoY 24% 17% 21% (82%) (5%) 14% 13% 16% 3,283% (8%) 8%8% 170% (130%) 4Q064Q07 4,881 1,666 164 83 1,914 6,795 3,841 2,954 382 (694) 1,685 (921) (36) 3,931 1,424 136 450 2,010 5,941 3,395 2,546 (12) (756) 1,560 (341) 122 Income Statement CONSTANT MILLION PESOS Net Interest Income Service Fees Recovery FX and Trading Non Interest Income Total Income Non Interest Expense Net Operating Income Non Operating Income, Net Income Tax Net Income Provisions Subs & Minority Interest
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6 Comparable Results Net Interest Income14,515 2007 17,384 20% MILLION PESOS Non Interest Income7,1857,899 10% Total Income21,70025,283 17% Non Interest Expense13,15714,432 10% 2006 Accounting Standards ‘07 Operating Profit8,53410,851 27%
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7 Non Interest Expense CONSTANT BILLION PESOS EFFICIENCY RATIO Non Interest Expense 2006 12.9 2007 14.4 12% 56.8% 2005 55.0% 2006 56.3% 2007 Accounting Changes 52.9% 3.4 pp
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8 Net Interest Margin vs CETES PERCENTAGE CETES NIM 4Q051Q062Q063Q064Q061Q072Q073Q07 99% 111% 4Q07 8.6 7.6 7.1 8.5 7.5 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.9 8.0 7.7 7.5 7.7 8.2
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9 Core Deposits CONSTANT BILLION PESOS Mix Demand Time Demand Time Total Deposits4Q054Q074Q06 111 64 175 99 56 154 82 43 125 13%23% 13% 14% 21% 30% 63% 37% 100% 64% 36% 100% 66% 34% 100%
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10 CONSTANT BILLION PESOS Performing Loan Portfolio 4Q063Q074Q07 QoQ Change YoY Commercial Corporate Government Total Consumer 23%10% 47%19% 60%0%0% 32%10% 29%7%7% 75 37 18 193 63 68 31 18 175 59 61 25 11 146 49 4Q063Q074Q07 146 175 193
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11 Performing Consumer Loan Portfolio CONSTANT BILLION PESOS 4Q053Q074Q07 49 59 63 4Q063Q074Q07 QoQ Change YoY Car Loans Credit Card Loans Payroll Loans Consumer 10%3% 41%9% 20%1%1% 29%7%7% 7 14 6 63 7 13 6 59 7 10 5 49 Mortgage Loans 31%9%363328
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12 AUTO 20052006 4.7 5.3 2007 6.3 MORTGAGE 20052006 7.4 11.0 2007 12.0 PAYROLL & PERSONAL 20052006 4.3 5.6 2007 6.7 Consumer Loans ORIGINATION IN CONSTANT BILLION PESOS
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13 Credit Cards THOUSANDS OF NEW CARDS 263 518 20052006 190 2004 709 2007
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14 Increase in risk adjusted profitability. New products: Mujer Banorte / Inmediata / Platinum / Empuje Negocios. Ya Bájale: record level of balances transferred. Ps $3.0 billion pesos (+47% YoY). Diversification of distribution channels. Development of existing portfolio. Campaigns to promote usage and commercial alliances. Credit Card: 2007 Achievements
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15 Capitalization Ratio Tier 1 Tier 2 TOTAL Percentage Tier 1 PERCENTAGE 10.2% 3.6% 13.8% 200520062007 74% 13.3%12.2% 2.8%5.1% 16.1%17.4% 83%70%
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16 Credit Ratings +1 +2 = Notches Over Investment Grade Baa1 BBB BBB- International Rating Fitch Moody’s Standard & Poor’s Agency Positive Stable Outlook Date Sep-07 Dec-07
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17 Subsidiaries
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18 Recovery Banking NET INCOME IN MILLION PESOS Total 2005 917 2006 715 2007 766 AUM IN BILLION PESOS 2007 2006 5.2 54.4 6.7 51.8Loan Book Assets % 29% (5%) 1.32.4Projects 85%
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19 Long Term Savings AFORE 148 53 20052006 INSURANCE 224 168 20052006 ANNUITIES 50 323 200520062007 82 2007 136 2007 170 Total 2005 422 2006 545 2007 388 ROE: 16% ROE: 24% ROE: 20% NET INCOME IN MILLION PESOS
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20 Other Finance Companies FACTORING 73 92 WHAREHOUSING 1511 LEASING 86 122 107 140 15 Total 2005 197 2006 256 2007 271 ROE: 23% ROE: 30% ROE: 13% 2005200620052006200520062007 NET INCOME IN MILLION PESOS
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21 Other Subsidiaries BROKERAGEMICROLENDING (20) 23 2005 2006 (30) 2007 ROE: 33% 80 191 20052006 288 2007 NET INCOME IN MILLION PESOS
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22 Banorte USA MILLION DOLLARS 2007 2006 INB Performing Loans Efficiency ROE Net Income (70%) Net Interest Margin 974 4.4% 15.8 41.6% 21.5% 779 12.5 19.4% 46.4% 4.6% 11% 25% 11% 26%
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23 Business Indicators Customers AUM Infrastructure
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24 Customers 3.9 2.9 2.4 2004 Bank Afore Insurance MILLIONS 9.2 4 2.4 6.2 3.3 3.2 2007 12.7
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25 BILLION PESOS Assets Under Management Bank Brokerage House Long Term Savings 242 119 2004 395 34 357 181 2007 596 58
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26 Infrastructure Distribution Channel 2007 Branches ATM´s POS 1,051 3,674 27,857 Employees17,348 994 3,140 21,453 15,929 2006 6% 17% 30% 9%
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27 2. Asset Quality
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28 Asset Quality Past Due Loans Loan Loss Reserves RESERVE COVERAGE PAST DUE LOAN RATIO Total Loan Portfolio CONSTANT BILLION PESOS 4Q063Q074Q07 2.1 3.7 150 2.7 3.6 179 2.9 3.8 197 131% 172% 132% 4Q063Q074Q07 1.5% 1.4% 4Q063Q074Q07 1.5%
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29 Reserve Creation from Loan Book Mortgage Corporate / Commercial Government Credit Card 696 76 1,229 539 Other Consumer 279 2007 Total2,818 % of Total 25 2 44 19 10 100 69% of total CONSTANT MILLION PESOS
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30 Loan Book Performance Mortgage Corporate / Commercial Government Credit Card 14% 60% 41% 31% Other Consumer 30% Total32% ROE 38% 19% 31% 16% 21% 3.6% 0% 6.5% 0.8% (0.2%) Loan Growth Net Credit Losses 23%0.9% 2007
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31 3. Stock Metrics
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32 Stock Performance IPC: 341 Banorte: 483 2004-2007 Inbursa: 244
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33 Stock Turnover: Daily Volume MILLION DOLLARS 20032004 2.3 4.9 2005 10.3 2006 13.9 CAGR = 72% 2007 20.3
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34 Market Capitalization 7,858 2006 3,174 1,751 20032004 4,229 2005 8,341 2007 CAGR = 48% MILLION DOLLARS
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35 LatAm Bank’s Performance Bradesco (23%) Banco de Chile 46% Unibanco 55% (4%) Banco Macro Bancolombia 11% ItaúBanorte 7% 44% Inbursa 2007 RETURNS IN DOLLARS 34%
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36 LatAm Valuations 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5 13.0 2.02.12.22.32.42.52.62.72.82.93.0 P/BV P/E Bradesco 54.6 Santander - Chile 8.7 Bancolombia 6.2 Unibanco 18.3 Banco do Brasil 41.7 GFNorte 7.9 Itaú 55.1 BILLION DOLLARS
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37 4. Final Considerations
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38 Financial Penetration 7% 6% 14% 38% BANK CREDIT TO PRIVATE SECTOR AS % OF GDP 8% 10% 12% 26% 10% 8% 7% 15% +23 pp
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39 LatAm Comparison 34% 33% 13% 24% 72% ChileColombiaAverageArgentinaMexico Bank Other 15% 9% 33% Brazil 22% Peru CREDIT TO PRIVATE SECTOR AS % OF GDP
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40 Challenges 2008 Infrastructure 80 new branches + 20 refurbishments. 600 new ATM’s + 330 substitutions. 12,000 POS’s. SME’s Low bancarization levels. New secular growth story. Specialized products & sales force. Asset Quality Improve origination & follow up process. Efforts to reduce reserve requirements.
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41 Challenges 2008 Banorte USA Microlending Alternate channels Greater revenue synergies. New products. Calibration of business model. Emphasis on profitability & asset quality. Seek new alliances. Middle & lower income segments. Government banking Increased loan demand. Emphasis on payrolls.
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42 Medium Term Challenges Adequate reading of uncertain environment. Asset quality & profitability. Investment: Competitive infrastructure. Cost containment. Alternate distribution channels. Funding costs and capitalization.
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