1. Centre for Diet and Activity Research A new tool for modelling the public health impacts of transport policies James Woodcock University of Cambridge 24/01/2012

2. Centre for Diet and Activity Research Where does modelling fit?

3. Centre for Diet and Activity Research Where does modelling fit?

4. Centre for Diet and Activity Research ITHIM

5. Centre for Diet and Activity Research ITHIM

6. Centre for Diet and Activity Research California Bay Area Maizlish N, Woodcock J, Co S, Ostro B, Fanai A, Farley D. Health Co-Benefits and Transportation-Related Reductions in Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Bay Area: Technical Report. California Department of Public Health, November 2011.

7. Centre for Diet and Activity Research England & Wales Scenarios

8. Centre for Diet and Activity Research 2030: A Typical English Street?

9. Centre for Diet and Activity Research Baseline Vision 3Vision 2 Vision 1 Median: 9 min Median: 14 min Median: 19 min Median: 30 min Physical Activity Exposure Modelling

10. Centre for Diet and Activity Research Dose Response Relationship: CVD Derived from Hamer et al Br J Sports Med 2008;42:238-243

11. Centre for Diet and Activity Research b p m c d h Bicyclebk bb k bp k bm k bc k bd k bb Pedestrianpk pb k pp.... Motorbikem k mb k mp k mm... Carck cb etc.... Busdk db..... HGV h k hb..... NOVnk b..... Striking Vehicle Injured party Road Traffic Injury Modelling Methods

12. Centre for Diet and Activity Research

13. Methods development Multiple health pathways Physical activity: Age specific distributions Non-linear dose-response relationship Morbidity not just mortality Injuries: Sensitivity to motor vehicle volume Inclusion of speed

14. Centre for Diet and Activity Research England & Wales Results

15. Centre for Diet and Activity Research Impact

16. Centre for Diet and Activity Research Modelling Geographical Variation

17. Centre for Diet and Activity Research Modelling Policies

18. Centre for Diet and Activity Research Next Steps

19. Centre for Diet and Activity Research ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This work was undertaken by the Centre for Diet and Activity Research (CEDAR), a UKCRC Public Health Research Centre of Excellence. Funding from the British Heart Foundation, Economic and Social Research Council, Medical Research Council, the National Institute for Health Research, and the Wellcome Trust, under the auspices of the UK Clinical Research Collaboration, is gratefully acknowledged. In addition acknowledge support from the California Public Health Department and Visions 2030 Walking and Cycling Project (EPSRC funded)

20. Centre for Diet and Activity Research Dose Response ARR: Impact on CVD