1. Housing and NDCs Key Findings from Phase 1 of the National Evaluation Ian Cole CRESR Sheffield Hallam University

2. Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 Outline of presentation  The NDC programme  Housing and the NDC paradigm...  the impact of housing interventions  neighbourhood renewal in a differentiated housing market  the crucial role of household mobility  outstanding challenges for NDC housing strategies.. ..and for the next phase of the evaluation.

3. Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 The Different Emphasis of the NDC programme Short – term (e.g. SRB typically 3 year schemes) 10 year horizon Distrusted by local residents Communities at the centre Overly focused on physical regeneration ‘Holistic’ approach Divorced from long-term public service providers Close working with LA and key agencies Designed to produce Sustainable renewal for both people and places

4. Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 Relative Area Deprivation and NDCs

5. Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 Housing as the latecomer  Not originally a key outcome area ..but included due to community concerns  even if leverage over large scale investment is limited  long lead-in time for housing strategies ..feeding some community frustration  number of NDC projects increased by 78 per cent 2001 – 2004 ..but housing projects increased by 115 per cent!

6. Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 Housing in the NDC paradigm  community-led emphasis often delayed agreement over approach  focus on improving what there was, not creating something new...?  NDC often became local catalyst for debates around stock transfer, new forms of investment, rise of buy to let markets.. ..and initially apart from parallel interventions – eg HMR  NDC as an 'inward-looking' not 'outward-looking' initiative?

7. Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 Inward-looking?: NDC Outward-looking?: HMR EmphasisAgencyStructure FocusExisting residents Neighbourhood Potential residents Sub-region Approach to housing stock Re-investRemodel Priorities in housing mgmt Accessibility/ support 'Marketing'/ 'rebranding' Nature of linksManagement- centred Inter-departmental Strategy-centred Inter-sectoral Priority to c'ty involvement HighLow StrengthsVisible impactMarket-centred Vulnerabilities Spill-over Displacement C'ty support Delivery vehicle

8. Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 Outcomes for Housing and the Physical Environment  improving environment/levels of satisfaction (25)  improving housing quality/satisfaction (24)  improving appearance of the area (19)  green/open spaces (17)  reducing proportion of voids (12)  reducing rates of out-migration (9)  increasing house prices in relative terms (8)  Source: NDC Delivery Plans 2004

9. Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 Average dwelling price by type in NDC areas Source: SDRC

10. Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 Average dwelling prices: NDC areas with highest and lowest prices 2004 Source: SDRC

11. Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 Neighbourhood renewal for differentiated housing markets (1) in London.....  affordability dominates all  impact on leaseholders  risk of 'two tier' markets ..but receipts from land sales offer some leverage  overcrowding more an issue than high void rates

12. Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 London: 9 of 10 areas with highest rates of residential overcrowding

13. Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 Neighbourhood renewal for differentiated housing markets (2) in Hartlepool.....  300 properties to be demolished ..but further demolition opposed by residents  how to find up to £12 million for refurbishment?  concerns about poor management in PRS  extensive developable land – why invest in the NDC area?  poverty is 'widespread not concentrated' ..so where are the affluent to help produce the 'mix'?

14. Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 Tenure in NDC areas Base: All Source: MORI/NOP

15. Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006..but big changes on the horizon..? Southwark: projected proportion of home owners (2011) 8% Delivery Plan objective (2011)50% Brent: projected proportion of home owners17% Delivery Plan objective38% Newcastle projected proportion of home owners14% Delivery Plan objective 40-50%

16. Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 Impact of housing interventions...  too soon to tell..?  disruption for many communities  but intensive management has been selectively introduced  market change and mobility more telling than specific interventions?

17. Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 Additionality of NDC expenditure and outputs Housing and Environment (£333) 8,000 Homes improved or built Education (£244) 9,500 adults obtaining qualifications Crime and disorder (£164) 70,000 young people involved in diversion activities 17,000 received job training 104 new or improved health facilities Worklessness (£154) Health (£149) Per capita NDC spend 2000/01 to 2003/4.52.64.82.85 Additionality Ratio Example output

18. Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 Perceptions of the area are improving (2002-2004)

19. Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 Limited impact on satisfaction with accommodation, repair and landlords Base: (a) All; (b) All tenants, including shared ownership; NDC Aggregate 2002 (13,222), 2004 (12,883); Comparator 2002 (1,052), 2004 (2,109) Source: MORI/NOP

20. Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006..but the impact of inward and outward mobility is significant

21. Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 the circumstances of outmovers from NDC after 2002

22. Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 the impact of mobility....  does it show latent demand for affordable home ownership locally...  or is it a sign of getting on, by getting out?

23. Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 Housing in Phase 1 of NDC evaluation  discernible shift from environmental uplifts and housing management focus to investment, restructuring and tenure change..  synthesis emerging between 'inward' and 'outward' approaches?  more 'market aware' approaches being developed.. ..but transformational change will depend on patterns of mobility as much as quality of interventions

24. Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 and some outstanding 'challenges'..  scale of investment required for transformational change  while managing local expectations  the development of intermediate housing options..  the potential threats to community cohesion in segmented housing markets  partnership approach with LAs, RSLs, HMR, RHBs EP etc is essential for NDCs... ..but not a meeting of equals?  and clashing time frames for delivery..  is 10 years long enough?

25. Presentation to NRU/DLGC 9 May 2006 and challenges for Phase 2 of the evaluation... use 2006 and 2008 MORI household surveys to map changing profile of in-migrants..but cannot follow out-movers six case study NDCs will offer detailed monitoring in different market contexts need to explore changing circumstances of particular communities over time success of new residential developments is key but inevitable time lag between changing the landscape....and changing the image.

26. Housing and NDCs Key Findings from Phase 1 of the National Evaluation Ian Cole CRESR Sheffield Hallam University