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Cumulative emissions scenarios IPCC Mitigation TS2001.

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Presentation on theme: "Cumulative emissions scenarios IPCC Mitigation TS2001."— Presentation transcript:

1 Cumulative emissions scenarios IPCC Mitigation TS2001

2 Emissions 2004

3 Energy share by economic region

4 Growth by region

5 Emissions growth by cause IPCC 2007 Mitigation TS

6 Total fuel mix to 2005

7 Electricity production G8 Renewable Energy Taskforce 2001 report “business as usual” “diversify + renewables scenario” ~ B

8 “Diversible Renewables”- breakdown G8 Renewable Energy Taskforce 2001 report

9 Total system cost/year G8 Renewable Energy Taskforce 2001 report

10 Making up ones mind …. IPCC Mitigation TS2001

11 Stabilisation costs “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change” CUP 2006

12 CO2 prices “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change” CUP 2006 Longer term with trading

13 Induced Technology Change effect “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change” CUP 2006

14 Mitigation “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change” CUP 2006

15 11 Wedges …. “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change” CUP 2006

16 Wedges 1 Potential wedges: Strategies available to: reduce the carbon emission rate in 2055 by 1 GtC/year, or to reduce carbon emissions from 2005 to 2055 by 25 GtC. “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change” CUP 2006 1-5 All these happening?

17 6-10 Current or nearly current engineering ? “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change” CUP 2006

18 11-15 Societally harder ? “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change” CUP 2006

19 IPCC 2007 Mitigation, TS. Biofuels

20 Evolving costs for alternatives (data of 2001) G8 Renewable Energy Taskforce 2001 report

21 External costs G8 Renewable Energy Taskforce 2001 report

22 Stabilisation scenarios “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change” CUP 2006

23 IPCC 2007 Mitigation, TS.

24 Forest management IPCC Mitigation TS2001

25 When to act … “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change” CUP 2006

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27 11 Wedges …. “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change” CUP 2006

28 Carbon capture and storage

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