1. Eutrophication 4 Modelling, Assessing, Monitoring and Remediation G. Giordani Yongjin Xiao Ana Cristina Cardoso Laurence Mee Joao Gomes Ferreira F. Coljin Alice Newton

2. This lecture is a summary overview, a series of detailed separate lectures are also available

3. Modelling, Monitoring, Assessing and Remediation ~ Nutrient budget model (LOICZ tool) ~ Monitoring eutrophication ~ Assessing Eutrophication ~ Europe ~ OSPAR ~ DPSIR ~ ELME scenarios and indicators (Black Sea) ~ NEEA-USA ~ ASSETS- Global (LOICZ tool)

4. LOICZ Nutrient budget modelling (for full presentation use file Eutrophication 4.1Modelling)

5. The LOICZ Biogeochemical model Gianmarco Giordani Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Parma, Italy giordani@nemo.unipr.it

6. LOICZ Budget Sites to Date > 200 sites so far Poor coverage at high latitudes “Spotty” coverage in Central Africa, Asia and N America

7. Information needed for the model ~ General description of the system with surface area, mean depth and seasonal evolution. ~ Estimations of water loads and output ( as runoff, precipitation evaporation, groundwater etc.) ~ Mean salinity of the inputs (if relevant), the system and the adjacent sea. ~ Concentrations of nutrients in the loads, water column of the system and adjacent sea ~ Seasonal evolution of the main primary producers and their CNP ratio ~ Concentrations of dissolved organic N and P (optional)

8. Monitoring Eutrophication EEA and JRC

9. Monitoring EUtrophication, EEA Nutrients Watershed input Oxygen level Transparency Phytoplankton Benthic vegetation Benthic fauna

10. FerryBoxes Monitoring of the Eutrophication in the North Sea W. Petersen, H. Wehde, M. Gehrung, F. Schroeder GKSS Research Centre, GERMANY FerryBox Outline: FerryBox System Special sensors Algal group detection and oxygen sensors Nutrient detectors Combination of FerryBox and Remote Sensed Data Conclusion

11. http://www.ferrybox.org Baltic Sea Helsinki (FI) - Travemünde (D) Helsinki (FI) - Tallinn (EE) Skagerrak Oslo (N) - Hirtshals (DK) North Sea Cuxhaven (D) - Harwich (UK) Wadden Sea Den Helder – Texel (NL) Irish Sea Liverpool (UK) - Isle of Man (UK) Engl. Channel Southampton - Isle of Wight (UK) Bay of Biscay Portsmouth (UK) - Bilbao (ES) Aegean Sea Athens - Heraklion (GR) EU FerryBox Project (9 Lines) 2002 - 2005

12. Combination of FerryBox & Remote Sensed Data MERIS ENVISAT

13. Assessing Eutrophication various methods

14. ~ “Phase I” approach: nutrient-based ~ Nutrient Index Method I/II ~ Principal Component Analysis (PCA) ~ Fuzzy Analysis ~ “Phase II” approach: symptom-based ~ OSPAR COMPP ~ EPA NCR Water Quality Index ~ ASSETS Various eutrophication assessment methods

15. Monitoring and methodology Variables Nutrient Index I Nutrient Index II PCA Fuzzy Analysi s OSPAR COMPP EPA NCR ASSETS Nutrient (DIN, DIP) load or concentration ×××××× Chlorophyll a ×××××× Dissolved oxygen ××××××× Water clarity ××× HABs/Nuisance ×× Phytoplankton indictor SPP × Macroalgal abundance ×× Submerged aquatic vegetation loss ×× Zoobenthos/fish kills ×

16. Comparison of “Phase I/II” methods MethodsTemporal focus Indicator criteria/ thresholds Combination method Nutrient Index I Not specified Modified after Japanese criteria Sum of four ratios Nutrient Index II Not specified Modified after Japanese criteria Ratio of three parameters to their threshold values PCA Not specified Modified after Japanese criteria Comparisons among primary components and their threshold values Fuzzy Analysis Not specifiedNational standardsProbabilities comparison OSPAR COMPP Growing season, winter for nutrients No Integration of scores for four categories EPA NCR Summer Determined from American national studies Ratio of indicators: good/fair indicators to poor/missing data ASSETS Annual cycle Determined from American national studies Average of primary and highest secondary are combined by matrix

17. Assessing Eutrophication in Europe

18. Evaluation of Impact of EU Directives on nutrients ~ Assessment of Directive (UWWT) effect on P ~ Assessment of Directive (Nitrate Directive) effect on N

19. Systematics of the eutrophication process (OSPAR 1992) Causative factors: nitrogen & phosphorus inputs/concentrations + shifts in the N/P/Si ratio + Supporting factors (examples): adequate light availlability in the water (+) low flushing rates (+) Direct / indirect effects (examples): shifts in algal species composition + mass development of algae + oxygen deficiency (+) benthic mortality etc. (+)

20. DPSIR framework for Assessment of Eutrophication

21. DPSIR assessment framework for eutrophication in coastal EU waters

22. D riving forces, P ressures, S tate, I mpact, R esponses Indicator Policy issue DPSIR N & P in rivers do we see the results of nutrient policies in rivers? state N run-off what have been the main contributions to the total load of nitrogen? pressure N balance has agriculture balanced its inputs and ouputs of nutrients? pressure P load what have been the main contributions to the total load of phosphorous? pressure P from treatment plants what has been the result of the urban wastewater directive and national measures? pressure wastewater treated what has been the result of the urban wastewater directive and national measures? response NO3 in groundwater how often are groundwater quality aims for nitrogen exceeded? state P in lakes do we see the results of a decrease in phosphorous emissions? state PO4 in coastal water do we see the results of nutrient policies in coastal waters? state NO3 in coastal water what has been the result of the urban wastewater directive and national measures? state

23. Coastal eutrophication Pressure-State-Response Drivers l Agriculture – loss of fertilizer, etc l Urban discharges (sewage) l Industrial discharges l Atmospheric deposition l Internal (secondary) sources (e.g. P from sediments) l Advection from offshore (e.g. N and P, certain types of HAB) Response l Fertilizer reduction l WWTP (sewage, industry) l Emmission controls l Sediment dredging etc l Time... l Interdiction (e.g. HAB events) Pressure l N and P loading to the coastal system l HAB phytoplankton “loading” from offshore State l Primary symptoms l Decreased light availability l Increased organic decomposition l Algal dominance changes l Secondary symptoms l Loss of SAV l Low dissolved oxygen l Harmful algae

25. Scenarios and Indicators ELME Black Sea example

26. Links between lifestyle and environmental change

27. ELME Scenarios

28. Application of indicators: Eutrophication System indicators ~Benthic mass mortality ~Pelagic/demersal fish catch ~Benthic hypoxia ~Trophic Transfer efficiency ~Fodder/non-fodder zooplankton ~Diatoms/non-diatoms ~Chlorophyll (satellite) ~Ratio of new/regenerated nutrients ~Winter nutrient stock ~Land-based discharge loads Complexity * *** **** *** **** ** ***** **** *** Trophic effects Pressures Major change Specificity ***** *** ***** ** **** *** ***** **** **

29. Noctiluca: A trophic dead end Eutrophication threshold Data from Koval (1984) Trophic ‘dead ends’ as indicators of eutrophication

30. NEEA-USA Eutrophication Assessment

31. Simplified Eutrofication Model of NEEA Now updated through ASSETS

32. Expanded Eutrophication Model, NEEA

33. Matrix for Determining Level of Eutrophication NEEA

37. International Assessment of Eutrophication ASSETS http://www.eutro.org Slides from Joao Gomes Ferreira LOICZ tool for assessment of eutrophication

38. Key aspects of the ASSETS approach The NEEA approach may be divided into three parts: Division of estuaries into homogeneous areas Evaluation of data completeness and reliability Application of indices l Tidal freshwater (<0.5 psu) l Mixing zone (0.5-25 psu) l Seawater zone (>25 psu) Spatial and temporal quality of datasets (completeness) Confidence in results (sampling and analytical reliability) Overall Eutrophic Condition (OEC) index Overall Human Influence (OHI) index Determination of Future Outlook (DFO) index Pressure State State Response Response S.B. Bricker, J.G. Ferreira, T. Simas, 2003. An integrated methodology for assessment of estuarine trophic status. Ecological Modelling, In Press.

39. ASSETS extensions to the NEEA approach Complementing datasets using research models (tested for the Ria Formosa)  Use of seaweed biogeochemical and population models;  Use of “local” models for O 2 in intertidal areas;  Use of relational databases to assimilate dispersed data into an easily searchable data mining framework;  Use of simple models to determine pressure;  Use of GIS techniques to improve spatial weighting, and additional zonation if required;  Use of statistical criteria for some of the descriptors of state, such as chlorophyll a and dissolved oxygen;  Synthesis of results using a PSR approach

40. ASSETS scoring system for PSR

41. Mitigation and Remediation of Eutrophication

42. Remediation ~ Sewage treatment (with biological nutrient removal). Smart septic tanks ~ Restoring wetlands and riperian vegetation ~ Reduction of nonpoint sources of N & P ~ Efficient and intelligent use of fertilizer inc. timed application & sub soil delivery ~ Treatment of animal wastes and utilization of manure as fertilizer ~ Decrease animal protein diet demand ~ Controls on vehicles and industrial atmospheric outputs ~ Nutrient trading…although CO 2 trading has NOT been a success home.cc.umanitoba.ca/~vsmil

43. Discharge of P from water treatment in NW EU. EEA Total phosphorus discharges from urban wastewater treatment plants in north-west European countries have fallen 50-80 % during the past 15 years. The main reason for this reduction is the upgrading of wastewater treatment plants to include phosphorus removal. The shift to phosphate-free detergents has also contributed.

44. Impact of Urban Watewater treatment Nordic and central European countries have the highest percentage of wastewater subject to tertiary treatment (particularly phosphorus removal)EEA