1. 1 Zsolt HARNOS BUESPA Department of Mathematics and Informatics Potential impact of climate change on wheat production in Hungary June 28-July 2, 2004 Grainau, Germany

2. 2 CLIMATIC CHANGE THE PROGNOSED CLIMATIC SITUATION IN HUNGARY THE CHANGING TENDENCIES OF THE HUNGARIAN CLIMATE THE IMPACT OF THE PROGNOSED CLIMATIC CHANGE ON THE CONDITION OF THE WHEAT PRODUCTIVITY

3. 3 Summer mean temperature change (ºC) in Europe

4. 4 Summer precipitation change (%) in Europe

5. 5 Change in winter wheat and sunflower yield under the UKTR 2064 climate change scenario

6. 6 5 years moving average of yearly temperature years y early temperature

7. 7 5 years moving average of yearly precipitation y early precipitation years

8. 8 temperature months

9. 9 Mean temperature 1951-90

10. 10 Yearly precipitation 1951-90

11. 11 Debrecen precipitation (mm) I-III month IV-VI month VII-IX month X-XII month yearly average I-III month IV-VI month VII-IX month X-XII month yearly average 1951-1991 average 961791551265561951-1991 average 0,915,218,95,110 minimum39803543321minimum-3,313,216,72,88,8 maximum208333376272950maximum4,216,821,28,211,8 GCM I. period16017090150570I. period4,116,320,47,011,9 II. period130190150155625II. period5,617,121,89,113,4 Debrecen mean temperature (ºC)

12. Frequency of the 4 climatic year types in each 20 year period 18

13. 13 Precipitation sum of April and May Precipitation (mm)

14. 14 Effective temperature sum of May and June Temperature sum 1951-1990

15. 15 Distribution of precipitation sums of April and May

16. 16 Distribution of effective temperature sum of May and June

17. 17 Model validation (winter wheat) simulated observed

18. 18 The results of the simulation

19. 19 Simulated winter wheat yields CountyObserved yield (t/ha)Simulated yield (t/ha) AFRCWHEAT Győr Observed weather4.880.634.90.5 Generated weather CO 2 conc.: 360 ppm3.70.4 CO 2 conc.: 500 ppm4.20.5 Debrecen Observed weather4.690.694.80.6 Generated weather CO 2 conc.: 360 ppm3.80.4 CO 2 conc.: 500 ppm4.40.5

20. 20 Winter wheat yield simulation under the HadCM2 scenario Győr Debrecen precipitation years

21. 21 Cumulative distribution of (a) winter wheat yields and (b) percentage yield loss for the Debrecen region using the BASE, HCGG scenarios

22. 22 Productivity of winter wheat in Hungary

23. Definition of the production risk The production (yield) function is where x – state variable  – stochastic variable representing the weather u – control variable (agrotechnique) The distribution of the yield 26

24. 24 The determination of the functions and based on the analysis of yield time series The simplified model is: where expresses the genetic and agrotechnical development.

25. Empirical distribution of maize yield loss 28 relative residual

26. The distribution of relative loss of yield wheat maize Csongrád county Hajdú-Bihar county 29

27. 27 THE EXPECTABLE CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATIC CHANGES ARE THE EXISTING AGRICULTURAL ZONES WOULD BE PUSHED FURTHER NORTH THE ARID NATURE OF CLIMATE WOULD STRENGTHEN, WHICH WOULD BRING ALONG WITH IT INCREASED RISK FOR CULTIVATION