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Andrew Cote Sales Manager, South Region World Fertilizer Outlook
PotashCorp Andrew Cote Sales Manager, South Region World Fertilizer Outlook PotashCorp.com 1
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Forward-Looking Statements
PotashCorp Forward-Looking Statements The following presentation contains forward-looking statements. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions including foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities and effective income tax rates. While the company considers these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: fluctuations in supply and demand in fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; timing and amount of capital expenditures; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes in capital markets and corresponding effects on the company’s investments; changes in currency and exchange rates; unexpected geological or environmental conditions, including water inflow; strikes and other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns including the possibility of work stoppages at our Allan, Cory and Patience Lake facilities; changes in and the effects of, government policy and regulations; and earnings, exchange rates and the decisions of taxing authorities, all of which could affect our effective tax rates. Additional risks and uncertainties can be found in our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2007 under captions “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Item 1A – Risk Factors” and in our filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as at the date of this presentation and the company disclaims any obligation to update or revise the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
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Fertilizer Demand Drivers
PotashCorp Food is the primary driver of fertilizer growth. Fertilizer Demand Drivers
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Fertilizer Industry Demand Drivers
PotashCorp Fertilizer Industry Demand Drivers Rising Population and Improving Diets Drive Grain and Fertilizer Consumption Billion People Million Tonnes Billion Tonnes Million Tonnes This provides the foundation for growth in the fertilizer industry. Farmers need to grow more grains that are needed for human and animal consumption. This is leading to increased fertilizer applications to maximize the productivity of the land. As you can see, the growth in grain and fertilizer consumption has followed a similar path. Source: United Nations, FAO, IFA, Fertecon, PotashCorp
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World Grain* Stocks Global Stocks Remain Tight
PotashCorp World Grain* Stocks Global Stocks Remain Tight Million Tonnes Percent Grain Stocks Are Critically Low Global grain stocks are at critically low levels. In July, USDA set its world grains ending stocks-to-use ratio for the 2008/09 crop year to 15.4%, less than two months of supply and the lowest level on record. The previous record was last year at 15.8%. * Includes wheat and coarse grains Source: USDA August 2008 5
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US Crop Prices Significant Improvement in Crop Prices
PotashCorp US Crop Prices Significant Improvement in Crop Prices $US/bushel Crop Prices Have Been Stagnant Over the period from 1973 to 2005, crop prices in actual dollars did not increase for the three major crops corn, wheat and soybeans. The ability to draw down stocks from inventory created the illusion of adequate supply and resulted in the long period of artificially low crop prices. These stagnant prices did not provide farmers with the incentive to increase production. Source: USDA
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Selected International Commodity Prices
PotashCorp Selected International Commodity Prices Not Just Rising Corn, Wheat and Soybean Prices Index 2001 = 100 Rice Coffee Sugar Bananas Cocoa Palm Oil Rubber Strong Crop Prices Are a Global Phenomenon Strength in agricultural commodities is not just a story of key North American crops, but rather a global phenomenon. Prices for international staples like rice, coffee, cocoa, palm oil and rubber were very strong in 2007, and are showing continued strength in Farmers are responding to the greater profit potential by planting more acres and using more fertilizer. Source: World Bank July 2008 7
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US Fertilizer Prices Paid by Farmers For Spring Planting
PotashCorp US Fertilizer Prices Paid by Farmers For Spring Planting Higher Prices Reflect Strong Demand and Tight Supplies $US/Short Ton KCl DAP Ammonia Urea Source: USDA - April 2008 fertilizer prices
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US Crop Revenue Per Acre
PotashCorp US Crop Revenue Per Acre Higher Crop Prices Drive Significant Increase in US Crop Revenues $US/Acre Corn Soybean Wheat Based on estimated 2008 farm prices of $5.50/bushel for corn, $12.50/bushel for soybeans and $7.50/bushel for wheat. Source: USDA, PotashCorp
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US Fertilizer Costs and Crop Return Over Variable Costs
PotashCorp US Fertilizer Costs and Crop Return Over Variable Costs Sensitivity Analysis – Farmer Returns Still Excellent With Higher Fertilizer Prices Per Acre Fertilizer Cost* (potash less than 20% of fertilizer cost in 2008) Per Acre Return Over Variable Costs* $US/Acre $US/Acre Corn Soybean Wheat Corn Soybean Wheat $208 $115 $47 $46 * F cost assumptions based on USDA crop budgets and April Fertilizer Prices Paid Report **2008F fertilizer cost based on $561/ST KCl, $850/ST DAP and $552/ST urea ***Alternate scenario assumes pricing of $1,000/ST KCl, $1,200/ST DAP and $800/ST Urea Source: USDA, PotashCorp
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US Net Cash Farm Income Robust Farm Economy Robust Farm Economy
PotashCorp US Net Cash Farm Income Robust Farm Economy $US Billions Robust Farm Economy USDA is forecasting record US net cash income of $92.3 billion in This represents an increase of about $4 billion above 2007, which was the previous record, and over $23 billion higher than the previous 10 year average. Significantly higher projected crop returns more than offset the expected increase in farm production costs. This positions farmers well to set their fertilizer application rates to healthy levels to boost yields and take advantage of the strong crop prices. Source: USDA, Doane
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World Fertilizer Consumption Growth
PotashCorp World Fertilizer Consumption Growth Increasing Global Demand for the Three Primary Nutrients Cumulative Growth % YOY KCl P2O5 N Fertilizer Consumption – Especially Potash – Is Growing Rapidly Understanding the link between proper soil fertility and profitability, farmers in developing nations have begun to reverse their decades-long trend of under-applying fertilizer, particularly potash. Recognizing that without sufficient potash they cannot raise their yields – no matter how much N and P they apply – farmers have raised their potash consumption an average 5.6 percent per year for the past five years. This compares to 2.7 percent for N fertilizer and 3.8 percent for P. This “catch-up” in soil fertility will take years, so continued high growth rates in potash consumption are expected. Source: Fertecon, PotashCorp
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World and US Fertilizer Consumption by Crop
PotashCorp World and US Fertilizer Consumption by Crop Fertilizer Used on a Diverse Set of Crops World US All Other Crops Wheat Wheat All Other Crops Rice Fruits & Vegetables Fruits & Vegetables Rice Sugar Cotton Sugar Other Oilseeds Cotton Corn Fertilizer Used on a Diverse Set of Crops Globally, fertilizer is used on a diverse group of agricultural commodities. Wheat, rice, corn and other cereals that are staple crops for humans and animals consume roughly half of the world’s fertilizer. The remaining half is split between various fruits and vegetables, cotton, soybeans and other industrial and consumer crops such as oil palm, rubber, coffee and cocoa. No single crop accounts for more than 17% of total global fertilizer use. In the US, with its temperate climate and large animal industry, corn uses as much as 45% of the fertilizer applied. The increase in corn acres over the past two years has supported growth in US nutrient consumption. Soybeans Other Oilseeds Corn Other Cereals Soybeans Other Cereals Source: IFA
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Improved Fertilization Can Raise Yields
PotashCorp Improved Fertilization Can Raise Yields Potential Levels Exceed Current Application Levels Million Tonnes China India Brazil Developing World Fertilizer Applications are Low Farmers have a great opportunity to increase food production and feed more people and animals by following best practices for fertilizer application. China is the world’s largest fertilizer consumer but, with unbalanced fertilization and low application rates, it needs to apply more of all three nutrients to maximize yields. According to the International Plant Nutrition Institute (IPNI), it needs to use 40% more N and P2O5 and nearly triple its potash consumption. India has a huge need for all three nutrients. IPNI estimates that its N and P2O5 consumption could more than double, while there is potential for KCl to almost triple. Brazil is a unique market. Because of its relatively poor soils, and significant soybean plantings, it uses more potash and phosphates than nitrogen. According to IPNI, it should be applying twice as much N and KCl and 80% more P2O5. N P2O5 KCl Source: IPNI, Fertecon, PotashCorp
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Phosphate Overview PotashCorp PotashCorp PotashCorp
Now we’ll turn to the phosphate outlook. 15 15 15
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New Phosphate Rock Capacity vs Demand
PotashCorp New Phosphate Rock Capacity vs Demand Supply/Demand Balance to Remain Tight Million Tonnes Rock, Cumulative Growth Global Phosphate Rock Market is Tight The global phosphate rock market tightened in 2007 because of strong demand for phosphate fertilizer and limited phosphate rock capacity additions. Rock markets are expected to remain tight over the medium-term, driven by the anticipated growth in global phosphate demand. In addition, other than a potential project in Peru that would require years of lead time, there are a limited number of new projects scheduled to come on line to add export capacity. Source: Fertecon, PotashCorp
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Non-Integrated Phosphate Producer Cost
PotashCorp Non-Integrated Phosphate Producer Cost Non-Integrated Producers at a Significant Cost Disadvantage $US/Tonne of DAP Producers that rely on purchased rock have had to significantly raise prices for end-use phosphate products. For those producers, the current cost per tonne of rock alone in DAP could be more than $600 per metric tonne – almost three times higher than the previous five-year average price for the price of DAP itself. Including a 10-fold increase in international sulfur costs and substantially higher ammonia costs, the cash production costs for these non-integrated producers could increase to over $1100 per metric tonne of DAP. Source: Fertecon, PotashCorp
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New DAP/MAP Capacity* vs Demand
PotashCorp New DAP/MAP Capacity* vs Demand Market Expected to Remain Snug Until at Least 2012 Million Tonnes Product, Cumulative Growth Global DAP/MAP New Capacity vs Demand Balance to Remain Tight While China will continue to bring on new capacity, we do not expect this to increase export supply – based on the expectation of growth in its domestic demand, some potential closures of smaller facilities, higher input costs and government intervention. Morocco is likely to increase granulation production using excess capacity as it brings on new phosphoric acid capacity in 2008 and 2009. * Capacity includes several projects classified by sources as uncertain, and excludes projects classified as unlikely Source: British Sulphur, Fertecon, PotashCorp
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PotashCorp China DAP & MAP Exports Chinese Export Tax Tightens the Phosphate Market DAP MAP Million Tonnes Million Tonnes Export Tax Reduces Chinese Supply China exported close to 4 million tonnes of DAP and MAP in From April 20 through September 30, 2008, the Chinese government imposed a special 100% tax on phosphate exports, which was on top of a 35% tax already in place. If this tax is extended to the end of the calendar year it would effectively remove Chinese product from the export market for the remainder of In the second half of 2007, China exported almost 2.5 million tonnes of DAP and MAP. Source: Fertecon, PotashCorp
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Indian DAP Imports Indian Import Growth Drives Global DAP Market
PotashCorp Indian DAP Imports Indian Import Growth Drives Global DAP Market Million Tonnes Product Indian Import Growth Drives World Urea Trade The rapid growth in Indian urea imports has been the single biggest driver for the world urea market over the past three years. India has grown from a marginal importer of urea to the world’s largest urea importer in 2007. India’s domestic urea consumption grew by 42 percent over the past 5 years as the country attempts to keep pace with rising domestic food demand. India’s domestic urea production growth has stagnated due to rising consumption of its limited gas production for household, commercial and other industrial uses. India’s urea imports are expected to continue growing to support growth in domestic consumption. Source: Fertecon, PotashCorp
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PotashCorp Nitrogen Overview Next, we’ll turn to the nitrogen outlook.
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World Natural Gas Prices
PotashCorp World Natural Gas Prices Global Gas Prices Rising $US/MMBtu Western Europe US Gulf Ukraine Global Gas Prices Rising Natural gas prices have risen significantly in many key nitrogen producing regions of the world. Higher global oil prices have directly impacted Western European natural gas prices, and therefore the cost of producing nitrogen, as approximately 60% of Western European nitrogen production is based on oil-linked contract pricing. The weighted average price of gas for Western European nitrogen producers is forecast at $13/MMBtu in 2008. The futures market is projecting US natural gas prices to remain strong over the medium term. Ukrainian gas prices have more than tripled over the past 3 years as Russia has increased its gas price to neighboring countries. Reports indicate that gas prices to Russian producers should also increase over the next 5 years. Russia Source: Fertecon, PotashCorp
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Delivered Ammonia Costs to US Gulf/W. Europe
PotashCorp Delivered Ammonia Costs to US Gulf/W. Europe Higher Gas Prices Impact Ammonia Production Costs $US/tonne Ukraine Port Producer to US Gulf US Gulf Producer to US Gulf W. Europe (Netherlands) Producer to W. Europe Higher Gas Prices Dive Ammonia Costs Western Europe is projected to be the high cost global ammonia producer. For the second half of 2008, Western European producers’ delivered ammonia costs are expected to exceed US$500 per tonne. Ukrainian gas prices are expected to increase again in the second half of 2008, which would increase the international floor price for nitrogen exports. Ammonia supply into the US from Former Soviet Union states has become less competitive as gas prices in that region increase. The forward market for North American gas also indicates that domestic producers could be faced with higher production costs through the second half of 2008. Source: Fertecon, PotashCorp
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Urea Capacity Change vs Demand Growth
PotashCorp Urea Capacity Change vs Demand Growth Cumulative Growth Excluding China Shows Balance Million Tonnes Product China Excluding China Balanced World Urea Market Outside of China World urea capacity additions and demand growth outside of China are expected to be relatively balanced over the next four to five years. Production from new export based plants over the next 12 months in Iran, Oman, and Egypt will need to be placed in the market. China could be the wild card as its urea capacity is expected to grow by over 16 million tonnes from 2007 to If it were to increase exports significantly, there is potential for the urea market to turn long. China’s growth in demand, government policies, and the potential closure of inefficient nitrogen product capacity could impact China’s urea trade balance over the next 5 years. In 2008, China has imposed an export duty of 135% on urea exports, which is expected to reduce exports and tighten global markets. Source: Fertecon, British Sulphur, Potash Corp
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China Urea Exports Special Export Tax Could Reduce Chinese Exports
PotashCorp China Urea Exports Special Export Tax Could Reduce Chinese Exports Million Tonnes Product Major Swing Factor for Global Urea Trade China emerged as the world’s largest urea exporter in 2007, exporting more than 5 million tonnes of product. China exported an estimated 3.5 million tonnes of urea in the first half of 2008, far exceeding the previous year’s level. However, with the imposition of a 135% export tax on urea, the level of Chinese exports in the second half of 2008 could be significantly reduced. Given the uncertainties around Chinese government intervention, the level of Chinese exports will remain a major swing factor for the global market on a year to year basis. Source: Fertecon
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Indian Urea Deficit Indian Import Growth Drives Global Urea Market
PotashCorp Indian Urea Deficit Indian Import Growth Drives Global Urea Market Million Tonnes Product Indian Import Growth Drives World Urea Trade The rapid growth in Indian urea imports has been the single biggest driver for the world urea market over the past three years. India has grown from a marginal importer of urea to the world’s largest urea importer in 2007. India’s domestic urea consumption grew by 42 percent over the past 5 years as the country attempts to keep pace with rising domestic food demand. India’s domestic urea production growth has stagnated due to rising consumption of its limited gas production for household, commercial and other industrial uses. India’s urea imports are expected to continue growing to support growth in domestic consumption. Source: Fertecon, British Sulphur, PotashCorp
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PotashCorp PotashCorp Potash Overview 27
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Potential Potash Fertilizer Consumption Growth
PotashCorp Potash Potential Potash Fertilizer Consumption Growth Significant Catch-Up to Meet Scientifically Recommended Levels Million Tonnes KCl China India Brazil The Demand Potential for Potash is Huge Despite steady increases in consumption over the past decades, China must use more potash to eliminate major soil deficiencies and raise crop yields. China’s consumption would have to more than double (increasing by approximately 14 million tonnes) to achieve the scientifically recommended NPK ratio of 2:1:1. More than 70% of India’s soils are low-to-medium in potash fertility. India’s potash consumption must rise by more than 6 million tonnes to bring its NPK ratio from 6:2:1 to a recommended 4:2:1. Brazilian soils are naturally deficient in potassium. Brazil requires close to 5 million tonnes of additional potash to achieve recommended levels on current acreage. However, if crop production expands into new areas, considerably more potash would be required. * Based on current acreage Source: IPNI, Fertecon, PotashCorp 28
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Cumulative Potash Demand Growth and Capacity
PotashCorp Cumulative Potash Demand Growth and Capacity Demand Growth More Than Double New Capacity Growth Since 2000 Million Tonnes KCl, Cumulative Growth This has created a surge in potash demand and supply increases have not been sufficient to keep pace. Since the beginning of 2000, potash demand has grown by 40 percent – or almost 16 million tonnes. Approximately 90 percent of that growth has come from Asia and Latin America. Over the same time frame, new capacity has increased by only 7 million tonnes. Until recently, potash prices had not increased enough to justify capacity expansions. While that is changing, it takes years to go from planning to production. Source: Fertecon
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Potash Shipments by Market
PotashCorp Potash Shipments by Market Significant Growth in Major Offshore Markets Million Tonnes KCl Significant Growth in Major Offshore Markets World potash shipments increased by approximately 15% in 2007 as demand conditions improved in all major markets. The late settlement of the annual Chinese price negotiation will result in significantly lower (approximately 3 million tonnes) shipments to that market in Demand from other major offshore markets in Asia and Latin America has offset the reduction in shipments to China. With China expected back in the market early in 2009, there is potential for a large increase in total shipment demand for 2009. Source: Fertecon, PotashCorp
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North American Producers’ Ending Potash Inventory
PotashCorp North American Producers’ Ending Potash Inventory Down 41% from Previous 5 Year Average Million Tonnes KCl 2006 5-Year Average 2007 2008 Potash Supplies Remain Tight North American potash producer inventories remain tight in spite of reduced volumes to China in the first half of Inventories at the end of June were down 41% compared to the 5-year average. This represents the second lowest monthly producer inventory level on record and translates into less than 20 days supply, based on average sales over the previous 12 months. 41% below the 5-year average Source: IPNI
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PotashCorp’s Announced Potash Capacity Expansions
18.0 MMT Complete by 2012, Full Ramp Up by End of 2014 Million Tonnes Operational Capacity* Rocanville, Cory, Allan New Brunswick Cory P. Lake Lanigan 18.0 MMT * Capacity available by the end of each fiscal year ** 2012 includes a reduction for PotashCorp’s share of Esterhazy reserve depletion Source: PotashCorp
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