1. Brownsville, TX Forecast October 4, 2010

2. Scores

3. Things to look at Forecast Discussion Satellite Analysis NCEP Models NAM GFS Bufkit MOS USL

4. Text forecast links Forecast Discussion: – http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site =NWS&issuedby=BRO&product=AFD&form at=CI&version=1&glossary=1 http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site =NWS&issuedby=BRO&product=AFD&form at=CI&version=1&glossary=1 MOS – http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi- bin/mos/getall.pl?sta=KBRO http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi- bin/mos/getall.pl?sta=KBRO USL How to read MOS: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/tdl/synop/redmav.htm

5. Links http://www.weather.gov/sat_loop.php?image=ir&h ours=12 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analys is/namer/nam/12/index_500_l_loop.shtml http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analys is/namer/nam/12/index_700_l_loop.shtml http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analys is/namer/nam/12/index_pcp_l_loop.shtml http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analys is/

6. NAM

7. GFS

8. Ensembles Storm Prediction Center Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SPC SREF) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/ EMC NCEP SREF http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/S REF.html http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/S REF.html

11. Comparisons GFS 86 70 11kts 0.02 GFS MOS 86 65 10kts 0 NAM 81 68 13kts 0 NAM MOS 85 64 11kts 0 USL

12. Forecast Low – 65 – Northerly winds cold advection – Increased humidity -> clouds High – 85 – Some cloud cover during the day will keep heating down – North winds picking up during the day

13. Forecast Continued Wind – 11 Winds will pick up during the day My winds last week were too high Precip – 0 Strong high pressure

15. Forecast Day 1 Rank 424 85 65 11kts 0 NWS Rank 898 86 65 10kts 0 (GFS MOS = lazy) (GFS 18z is in 39 th place) ter@hawaii.eduter@hawaii.edu HIG 370