1. NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) New York, NY Office Brandon Smith Aviation and Decision Support Program Manager WFO New York NWS Decision Support for High Profile Events

2. Decision Support Overview ◆Decision Support Services – not a new concept (Incident Meteorologist) –Driven By Relationships Between the NWS Forecaster and the Decision Maker NWS IMET Preparing for wildfire support circa 1930.

3. Decision Support Overview ◆National Weather Service provides specific/tailored support to emergency managers, within the scope of its Mission. –Communicates Concisely in Non-Technical Terms –Communicates In The Decision Maker’s Preferred Method –Understands A Customer’s Specific Needs –Adapts Well to Changeable Working Environments –Knows Role in Incident Command System –Understands The Incident’s “Big Picture”

4. Decision Support Overview ◆Decision Maker –Do I Trust You? –Are You A Team Player? –Weather Is Information (Just Like Logistics, Operations) –Can You Provide The Information I Need At The Right Time? –I Want Your Best Estimate and Level of Confidence

5. High Profile NYC Metro Events ◆Support to NYC OEM for the Annual Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parades, Manhattan ◆3 rd Presidential Debate: 10/15/08, Hofstra University - Hempstead, NY ◆Decision Support Services to the Federal Aviation Administration’s New York Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) Facility.

6. Photo by NYC OEM OEM Emergency Operations Center

7. Support for Annual Thanksgiving Day Parades

8. About the Parade ◆More than 3 Million people line streets of Mid- Town Manhattan ◆More than 10,000 Parade Participants ◆Parade 9 am – Noon; Millions of Extra People 6 am – 3 pm

9. In this photo provided by the United States Potato Board, handlers struggle to move the Healthy Mr. Potato Head balloon when it is hit with a gust of wind while going through New York City's Columbus Circle during the annual Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade. (AP Photo)

10. NYC OEM Requirements Wind Speeds Along Parade Route are critical… -How “high” should balloons fly? -How many balloon handlers are needed? -Criteria for Lowering Balloons: Sustained speeds at least 23, gusts to 34 mph - Central Park ASOS not enough.

11. NYC OEM Requirements ◆Supplemental Wind Sensor Network (7 Sensors) Along Parade Route ◆Private Contractor Installs and Maintains Sensors for Macy’s ◆NWS interprets web based data in conjunction with all other information and provides short term wind forecasts for NYC OEM

12. ASOS Algorithms Instantaneous

13. Only about 1100 in attendance at the arena Over 15,000 within ½ mile of the arena 2008 Presidential Debate – Oct 15, 2008

14. Farmingdale Airport Hofstra University Farmingdale Airport (KFRG) Hofstra University and Farmingdale Airport

15. David S. Mack Auditorium

16. NO PARKING!!

17. Rain/Drizzle becomes a much larger security issue: 15,000 people is one issue 15,000 people with Rain Coats and umbrellas is another

18. Provide continuous weather support to the EOC in terms of public impact (rain/temps/wind) Provide HAZMAT/Emergency response forecast information (HYSPLIT) Services Coordinate with NY TRACON in maintaining secure airspace around Republic Airport (KFRG) where dignitaries were landing. NY TRACON

19. Consider These Numbers … ◆ $6 BILLION –What is lost annually in economic efficiencies as a result of air traffic delays ◆ 70% –The percentage of air traffic delays attributed to weather

20. DECISION SUPPORT FOR AVIATION NYC Metro Airspace is the busiest in the world  JFK/EWR/LGA are in the top 20 in the nation  HPN/TEB have 150,000+ operations per year.

21. Aviation Demonstration Test ◆A 60 day test of enhanced aviation weather information services provided by WFO New York involving a dedicated Aviation Forecaster ◆Monday-Friday, including holidays.

22. Purpose: ◆Provide enhanced aviation weather forecast information in support of N90 and area Towers. ◆Test runs through November ◆Performance metrics: FAA Comments, Aviation Stats on Demand, Aviation Demonstration Test

23. ◆Why? ◆Because…. –Improving collaboration among the NWS and FAA facilities –Disseminating more frequent weather information –Increasing service to aviation customers –Improving service delivery infrastructure Aviation Demonstration Test This is the key to managing the impact of weather on the New York metropolitan area

24. ◆Additional things we are planning to provide… ◆Additional coordination with the TRACONs and FAA Command Center, in conjunction with the CWSU whenever significant weather is being added to the TAFs ◆Participate in the CCFP chat to provide input along with the CWSU ◆Icing forecast for select holding points from8-14KFT How? Aviation Demonstration Test

25. Thanks… ◆Questions? ◆Contact info… Brandon.smith@noaa.gov 631-924-0562

26. Area of Responsibility Aviation Service Area

27. ◆Extra slides

28. NWS Organization ◆National Headquarters in Silver Spring, MD ◆More than 12 National Centers ◆6 Regional Headquarters -Eastern Region in Bohemia (LI), NY ◆122 Weather Forecast Offices ◆13 River Forecast Centers ◆About 5,000 people (3,000 Meteorologists) 6-1

29. Who Are We? ◆DOC - Department of Commerce ◆NOAA – National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration ◆NWS – National Weather Service

30. NWS Mission ◆Save Lives ◆Minimize Property Damage ◆Enhance the National Economy Through the Issuance of Accurate and Timely Warnings, Advisories, Watches, and Outlooks

31. National Weather Service Eastern Region ◆23 WFO’s ◆4 CWSU’s ◆3 RFC’s ◆Serves an area covering XXX sq miles and a population of XXX. Got a nice ER map??