Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Alternative Models of Dynamics in Binary Time- Series—Cross-Section Models: The Example of State Failure Nathaniel Beck, David Epstein, Simon Jackman &

Published by Modified over 9 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Alternative Models of Dynamics in Binary Time- Series—Cross-Section Models: The Example of State Failure Nathaniel Beck, David Epstein, Simon Jackman &"— Presentation transcript:

1 Alternative Models of Dynamics in Binary Time- Series—Cross-Section Models: The Example of State Failure Nathaniel Beck, David Epstein, Simon Jackman & Sharyn O’Halloran

2 Emory, 7/20/01Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran2 The Problem of State Failure Question: Why do countries “fail”? Is it a function of political, social or economic conditions? Ultimately, can we predict failure and take steps to prevent it? CW: The factors which induce failure are not the same ones that alleviate it Theoretical hook: basis of rule of law

3 Emory, 7/20/01Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran3 Failure Definition Sample: 147 countries from 1955-97 States can fail in any of 4 ways: Revolutionary War (50 episodes/359 case-years) Ethnic War (60 episodes/692 case-years) Adverse Regime Change (87 episodes/255 case-years) Genocide/Politicide (36 episodes/265 case-years) Dependent variable is coded as a 1 if any of these failure modes is present

4 Emory, 7/20/01Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran4 Summary Statistics on Failure Total of 4596 country-years in study Non-rectangular due mainly to appearance and disappearance of states over time 18.47% of all country-years are failures 68 countries (46%) had no failures 4 countries had only failures IV’s: trade openness, democracy, infant mortality, population density

5 Emory, 7/20/01Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran5 New & Total Failures, 1955-97

6 Emory, 7/20/01Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran6 0 ½ 1 y* = x  +  Probit:  1  (0,1) P(y=1) = Probit(y*) Probit Analysis The Standard Case

7 Emory, 7/20/01Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran7 0 ½ 1 Probit(x  ´) Probit Analysis Impact of Changing 

8 Emory, 7/20/01Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran8 0 ½ 1 Probit Analysis Error Terms for MLE

9 Emory, 7/20/01Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran9 0 ½ 1 Probit Analysis Time Series t = 123… T

10 0 ½ 1 Country 1 0 ½ 1 Country 2 0 ½ 1 Country 3 0 ½ 1 Country 4 Probit Analysis – Time Series Cross Section

11 Emory, 7/20/01Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran11 0 ½ 1 Probit Analysis Restricted Transition Model (LDV)

12 Emory, 7/20/01Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran12 0 ½ 1 Probit Analysis Restricted Transition Model (LDV) y* = Probit(x  ) y* = Probit(x  )

13 Emory, 7/20/01Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran13 0 ½ 1 Probit Analysis Full Transition Model y* = Probit(x    ) y* = Probit(x   )

14 Emory, 7/20/01Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran14 0 ½ 1 Probit Analysis Lagged Latent Model

Download ppt "Alternative Models of Dynamics in Binary Time- Series—Cross-Section Models: The Example of State Failure Nathaniel Beck, David Epstein, Simon Jackman &"

Similar presentations

Temporary Movement of Service Providers (Mode 4) 1.How is Mode 4 defined under the GATS? How should it be defined? 2.How important is Mode 4 as a means.

Temporary Movement of Service Providers (Mode 4) 1.How is Mode 4 defined under the GATS? How should it be defined? 2.How important is Mode 4 as a means.
Non Tariff Measures Data day WTO 18-19 May 2009. Definition of NTM-NTB NTM = policy measures, other than ordinary customs tariffs, that can potentially.

Non Tariff Measures Data day WTO May Definition of NTM-NTB NTM = policy measures, other than ordinary customs tariffs, that can potentially.
What would you use the data for? Straightforward secondary analysis –To assess theoretical accounts –To quantify characteristics or behaviours –To challenge.

What would you use the data for? Straightforward secondary analysis –To assess theoretical accounts –To quantify characteristics or behaviours –To challenge.
Economics 20 - Prof. Anderson1 Limited Dependent Variables P(y = 1|x) = G(  0 + x  ) y* =  0 + x  + u, y = max(0,y*)

Economics 20 - Prof. Anderson1 Limited Dependent Variables P(y = 1|x) = G(  0 + x  ) y* =  0 + x  + u, y = max(0,y*)
Key Findings of Collier & Hoeffler On Economic Causes of Civil War (1998) Civil war is overwhelmingly a phenomenon of low income countries. Possessing.

Key Findings of Collier & Hoeffler On Economic Causes of Civil War (1998) Civil war is overwhelmingly a phenomenon of low income countries. Possessing.
Democratic Transitions David Epstein, Robert Bates, Jack Goldstone, Ida Kristensen, Sharyn O’Halloran.

Democratic Transitions David Epstein, Robert Bates, Jack Goldstone, Ida Kristensen, Sharyn O’Halloran.
Limited Dependent Variables

Limited Dependent Variables
Exports & growth in island economies Times series cross-sectional analysis Naren Prasad ILO.

Exports & growth in island economies Times series cross-sectional analysis Naren Prasad ILO.
Associate Professor of Political Science University of Pittsburgh

Associate Professor of Political Science University of Pittsburgh
1Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Limited Dependent Variables P(y = 1|x) = G(  0 + x  ) y* =  0 + x  + u, y = max(0,y*)

1Prof. Dr. Rainer Stachuletz Limited Dependent Variables P(y = 1|x) = G(  0 + x  ) y* =  0 + x  + u, y = max(0,y*)
Regression with a Binary Dependent Variable

Regression with a Binary Dependent Variable
Democracy and Globalization Barry Eichengreen David Leblang.

Democracy and Globalization Barry Eichengreen David Leblang.
Topics in Growth Economics. Capital and Technology Democracy and Economic Freedom Income Equality and Economic Freedom Human Capital Population and Economic.

Topics in Growth Economics. Capital and Technology Democracy and Economic Freedom Income Equality and Economic Freedom Human Capital Population and Economic.
Minorities and Democratization David Epstein & Sharyn O’Halloran Columbia University Bahar Leventoglu SUNY – Stonybrook.

Minorities and Democratization David Epstein & Sharyn O’Halloran Columbia University Bahar Leventoglu SUNY – Stonybrook.
“Political Liberalization, Energy Production, and Labor Flows in the Global South” David H. Bearce University of Pittsburgh University of Colorado, Boulder.

“Political Liberalization, Energy Production, and Labor Flows in the Global South” David H. Bearce University of Pittsburgh University of Colorado, Boulder.
Financial Development and International Agricultural Trade D. Susanto and C. P. Rosson Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University College.

Financial Development and International Agricultural Trade D. Susanto and C. P. Rosson Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University College.
THE MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF QUALITY, 5e, © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Learning TM 1 Chapter 13 Reliability.

THE MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF QUALITY, 5e, © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Learning TM 1 Chapter 13 Reliability.
I The Vocabulary of Sampling Statistical Control - Sampling II Types of Samples IV Determining Sample Size III Testing Samples.

I The Vocabulary of Sampling Statistical Control - Sampling II Types of Samples IV Determining Sample Size III Testing Samples.
 Quantitative Approaches to International Relations  Case Study of Research Design in the International Political Economy  Case Study of Research Design.

 Quantitative Approaches to International Relations  Case Study of Research Design in the International Political Economy  Case Study of Research Design.
Revolution in Latin America. Independence of Latin America O Abuses of the Colonial System O Spain and Portugal had a vast colonial empire in Latin America.

Revolution in Latin America. Independence of Latin America O Abuses of the Colonial System O Spain and Portugal had a vast colonial empire in Latin America.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google