1. Characterizing warm-ENSO variability in the Equatorial Pacific An OLR Perspective A.M. Chiodi D.E. Harrison (submitted to J. Climate)

2. Smith et al. (1999) J. Climate Warm-event US impacts

3. Rationale for an OLR-ENSO Index Conditions during lists of years of extreme ENSO-state provide a statistical basis for seasonal climate forecasting Tropical atmospheric heating anomalies provide a dynamical basis for tropical and extra-tropical ENSO-related seasonal climate anomalies OLR is offers a more direct link to anomalous atmospheric heating

4. Region of interest: Eastern Central Pacific

6. Eastern Central Pacific OLRA Index

7. Event-like behavior

8. Gaussian-type behavior

9. Extra-Tropical Atmospheric Anomalies

12. Conclusions A distinctive type of OLR behavior has been seen in the eastern central Pacific since OLR measurements have become reliably available. Events of 1982-83, 1986-87, 1991-92 and 1997-98 stand out from background variability. Substantial atmospheric circulation anomalies occur over the N. Pacific and N. America in years distinguished by OLR. The case for tropically-driven anomalies is less clear in years with ENSO-status based on some indices but that are not distinctive from an OLR perspective. It makes sense to classify the OLR-distinguished events differently from others. The OLR events were often distinguished in time to be of some use to DJF and later seasonal climate prediction efforts, though operational SSTA indices usually gave earlier indications.