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2.  A bit about me  Actuaries in general insurance  Accident compensation & links to social policy  The health industry & health insurance  Social welfare  The future Contents

3.  University of Sydney  PTOW  Disability research (etc)  John Ford & Associates  Coopers & Lybrand/PricewaterhouseCoopers A bit about Me

4.  Started in mid-late 70’s  Dr. Greg Taylor & colleagues  Technical analysis of payment & cost development  Outstanding claims provisions  Extended to premium rating & relativities Actuaries in General Insurance

5.  GI led to accident compensation analysis in mid-late 80’s  Analysis extended to benefit analysis & scheme design  This led to actuarial involvement in scheme policy  Part of scheme policy includes links with social welfare, health industry & disability program planning Accident Compensation & links to Social Policy

6. Health Utilisation 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0-4 10-1420-2435-4455-6475-84 Age group Medical & Hospital Usage Index Male Female Intensity of Aged Care

7. Population Distribution - Australia

8. Projection of people with a severe and profound core activity restriction - Australia 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1981199120012011202120312041 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Persons w. profound/severe core activity restriction (65+) Total population

9.  Brent Walker led the way  Limited involvement by actuaries due to the nature of funding  Main actuarial involvement in development of outstanding claims provisions & reinsurance  Crisis in health insurance in the 1990’s led to funding & policy reform  Actuarial involvement increasing steadily – Health insurance – pricing, reserving, solvency & capital adequacy, casemix, risk profiling, experience monitoring Health industry – funding, provider contracting, capitation analysis Aged Care – links to disability, policy development, funding. The Health Industry & Health Insurance

10.  There is potential for actuarial contribution to the following areas of social welfare: - Disability support pension, unemployment benefits, aged pension Demand & management Risk profiling Claims streaming Policy development Funding projections  These areas are over & above the retirement income planning of the Institute’s superannuation & life insurance experts. Social Welfare

11.  Lots more work in the health industry  Higher level involvement in accident compensation policy & links with social welfare  More sophisticated analytical value – data mining (regression trees, neural networks), generalised linear modelling  More work with professionals other than actuarial – e.g. medical, OH&S, disability management, claims management The Future

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