1. Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market
Roberto Chang
Econ 336
March 2007

2. Plan Main reference: chapter 13 of KO
Exchange Rates: definitions, appreciation and depreciation.
The Foreign Exchange Market: actors, contracts.
The concept of rate of return on domestic and foreign currency assets.
Interest rate parity: a first approach to exchange rate determination.

3. Exchange Rates: definition
The exchange rate between two currencies is the price of one currency in terms of the other.
Example: 1 Euro = 1.30 US dollars  The exchange rate is 1.30 dollars per Euro, or 1/1.30 Euros per dollar.

4. The exchange rate allows us to translate prices in, say, Euro to dollar prices.
If the price of the dollar in terms of Euros falls, we say that the dollar depreciates and the Euro appreciates
If the dollar depreciates, goods whose prices are given in Euros become more expensive in dollars.

5. The Foreign Exchange Market: the Actors
Commercial Banks
Non Bank Financial Institutions
Firms
Central Banks

6. The Forex Market: features
Huge and growing volume of transactions
Dollar dominated
Takes place in major financial centers
Efficient, low transactions costs

7. Types of transactions
Spot
Forward and futures contracts
Swaps
Options

8. Why Forward Contracts May be useful
Suppose that you are going to receive or have to make a foreign currency payment in the future.
Without a forward contract, the dollar value of that payment can go up or down
With a forward contract, the dollar value can be “locked” today.

9. Why options may be useful
Suppose you may, or may not, receive a foreign currency payment in the future.
You can buy a put option, which gives you the right, but not the obligation, to sell the foreign exchange if and when you receive the payment

10. The Demand for Domestic and Foreign Currency Deposits
Rate of return: definition
Real versus nominal rates of return.
Computing the dollar rate of return in a foreign currency deposit

11. The dollar rate of return on a Euro deposit is, approximately, the interest rate on Euro deposits plus the expected rate of depreciation of the dollar against the Euro

12. Interest parity We will assume that: i = i* + (e’-e)/e
where i = interest rate on domestic currency deposits
i* = interest rate on foreign currency deposits
e = current exchange rate
e’ = future expected exchange rate

13. Why is IP a good assumption
If it does not hold, the dollar expected return on dollar deposits would be different from the dollar expected return on foreign currency deposits
People would switch from one kind to the other, causing the spot exchange rate to adjust.

14. Expected Returns on Euro Deposits when Ee$/€ = $1.05 Per Euro
Current exchange rate
Interest rate on euro deposits
Expected rate of dollar depreciation
Expected dollar return on euro deposits
E$/€ R€
( E$/€)/E$/€
R€ + ( E$/€)/E$/€
1.07
0.05
-0.019
0.031
1.05
0.000
0.050
1.03
0.019
0.069
1.02
0.029
0.079
1.00
0.100

15. The Current Exchange Rate and the Expected Return on Dollar Deposits

16. The Current Exchange Rate and the Expected Return on Dollar Deposits
Expected dollar return
on dollar deposits, R$
Current exchange
rate, E$/€
1.02
1.03
1.05
1.07
0.031
0.050
0.069
0.079
0.100
1.00 R$

17. Determination of the Equilibrium Exchange Rate
No one is willing to
hold euro deposits
hold dollar deposits

18. The Market for Foreign Exchange
The effects of changing interest rates:
an increase in the interest rate paid on deposits denominated in a particular currency will increase the rate of return on those deposits.
This leads to an appreciation of the currency.
A rise in dollar interest rates causes the dollar to appreciate.
A rise in euro interest rates causes the dollar to depreciate.

19. The Effect of a Rise in the Dollar Interest Rate
A depreciation
of the euro is
an appreciation
of the dollar.

20. The Effect of a Rise in the Euro Interest Rate

21. The Effect of an Expected Appreciation of the Euro
People now
expect the euro to appreciate

22. The Effect of an Expected Appreciation of the Euro (cont.)
If people expect the euro to appreciate in the future, then investment will pay off in a valuable (“strong”) euro, so that these future euros will be able to buy many dollars and many dollar denominated goods.
the expected return on euros therefore increases.
an expected appreciation of a currency leads to an actual appreciation (a self-fulfilling prophecy)
an expected depreciation of a currency leads to an actual depreciation (a self-fulfilling prophecy)

23. Covered Interest Parity
Covered interest parity relates interest rates across countries and the rate of change between forward exchange rates and the spot exchange rate:
R$ = R€ + (F$/€ - E$/€)/E$/€
where F$/€ is the forward exchange rate.
It says that rates of return on dollar deposits and “covered” foreign currency deposits are the same.
How could you make easy, risk-free money in the foreign exchange markets if covered interest parity did not hold?
Covered positions using the forward rate involve little risk.

24. Summary
Exchange rates are prices of foreign currencies in terms of domestic currencies, or vice versa.
Depreciation of a country’s currency means that it is less expensive (valuable) and goods denominated in it are less expensive: exports are cheaper and imports more expensive.
A depreciation will hurt consumers of imports but help producers of exports.

25. Summary (cont.)
Appreciation of a country’s currency means that it is more expensive (valuable) and goods denominated in it are more expensive: exports are more expensive and imports cheaper.
An appreciation will help consumers of imports but hurt producers of exports.
Commercial banks that invest in deposits of different currencies dominate the foreign exchange market.
Expected rates of return are most important in determining the willingness to hold these deposits.

26. Summary (cont.)
Returns on bank deposits in the foreign exchange market are influenced by interest rates and expected exchange rates.
Equilibrium in the foreign exchange market occurs when returns on deposits in domestic currency and in foreign currency are equal: interest rate parity.
An increase in the interest rate on a currency’s deposit leads to an increase in the rate of return and to an appreciation of the currency.

27. Summary (cont.)
An expected appreciation of a currency leads to an increase in the expected rate of return for that currency, and leads to an actual appreciation.
Covered interest parity says that rates of return on domestic currency deposits and “covered” foreign currency deposits using the forward exchange rate are the same.