1. CPN’0410/10/2004 1 Formal Specification and State Space Analysis of an Operational Planning Process Brice Mitchell, Lars M. Kristensen, and Lin Zhang

2. CPN’0410/10/2004 2 Presentation Outline Background Joint Military Appreciation Process (JMAP) Modelling Approach Overview of the CPN Model Simulation State Space Analysis Summary Discussion BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion

3. CPN’0410/10/2004 3 Background Authors Brice Mitchell Command and Control Division Defence Science and Technology Organisation (DSTO) Edinburgh, South Australia, AUSTRALIA Lars M. Kristensen Department of Computer Science University of Aarhus Aarhus, DENMARK Lin Zhang Command and Control Division Defence Science and Technology Organisation (DSTO) Edinburgh, South Australia, AUSTRALIA BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion

4. CPN’0410/10/2004 4 Background Motivation Deployable Joint Force Headquarters (DJFHQ) Australian Defence Force Deployable - Offshore military operations (East Timor 1999) Joint - Army, Navy, and Air Force Joint Military Appreciation Process (JMAP) Operational Planning Process Used to develop plans for military operations DJFHQ uses the JMAP JMAP Doctrine Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion

5. CPN’0410/10/2004 5 BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutline Background Problem The JMAP at DJFHQ is not formally or completely described by documentation Solution Formal representation of the DJFHQ planning process using timed hierarchical CP-nets and Design/CPN Validation and initial analysis using simulation Further analysis using state space methods Discussion

6. CPN’0410/10/2004 6 BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutline Background Benefits Education of new staff Experimentation of different variations of the process Ability to monitor the process during exercises and operations Greater understanding of the planning process Identification of areas in the process for improvement Framework to model any type of process, not necessarily an operational planning process Discussion

7. CPN’0410/10/2004 7 Background Why CP-nets? Ability to model complex discrete event systems which are have distributed and concurrent activities Expertise in modelling and analysis through earlier projects in operational planning Good graphical representation Hierarchical structure Ability to execute models Mathematically rigorous Analysis capabilities Supporting computer tools Design/CPN CPN Tools BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion

8. CPN’0410/10/2004 8 Background Related work (Modelling and Analysis of Planning Processes) L. M. Kristensen, B. Mitchell, L. Zhang, and J. Billington. Modelling and Initial Analysis of Operational Planning Processes using Coloured Petri nets. In proceedings of Workshop on Formal Methods Applied to Defence Systems, volume 12 in Conferences in Research and Practice in Information Technology, pp. 105-114. Australian Computer Society, 2002. B. Mitchell. Formal Specification and Initial Analysis of an Operational Planning Process Using Coloured Petri Nets. Honours Thesis, University of South Australia, Australia, August 2002. S. Lumsden, R. Smallwood, B. Mitchell, and L. Zhang. Modelling Operational Level Planning Processes with Coloured Petri Nets. 7th International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium. 2002. BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion

9. CPN’0410/10/2004 9 Background Related work (Sweep Line) S. Christensen, L.M. Kristensen, and T. Mailund. A Sweep-Line Method for State Space Exploration. In Proceedings of TACAS'2001, volume 2031 of Lecture Notes in Computer Science, pp. 450-464. Springer Verlag, 2001 G. E. Gallasch, L. M. Kristensen, and T. Mailund. The Sweep/CPN Library. Available via http://www.daimi.au.dk/designCPN/libs/sweepcpn/ G. E. Gallasch, C. Ouyang, J. Billington, and L. M. Kristensen. Experimenting with Progress Mappings for the Sweep-Line Analysis of the Internet Open Trading Protocol. In Proceedings of CPN’04, pp. 19-38. DAIMI PB – 570, October 2004 BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion

10. CPN’0410/10/2004 10 Joint Military Appreciation Process (JMAP) BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion

11. CPN’0410/10/2004 11 Joint Military Appreciation Process (JMAP) BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutline Mission Analysis 1 Review the Situation 2 Analyse Superior Commander’s Intent 3 Identify & Analyse Tasks 4 Identify & Analyse Freedom of Action 5 Identify & Analyse Critical Facts and Assumptions 6 Analyse Critical Vulnerabilities & Identify Decisive Events 7 Draft Commander’s Guidance 8 Prepare & Deliver Brief COA Development 1 Confirm Centre of Gravity 2 Refine Critical Vulnerability Analysis 3 Develop Lines of Operation 4 Develop the COA Scheme of Manoeuvre 5 Test COA Criteria 6 Prepare & Deliver Brief COA Analysis 1 Determine the War Game Start State 2 Select War Game Method 3 Select War Game Record 4 Conduct the War Game Decision & Execution 1 Compare COAs 2 Select the COA 3 Develop and Issue the Plan 4 Execute the plan Comd’s Guidance Modified COAs Broad COAs Preliminary Scoping Effects Discussion

12. CPN’0410/10/2004 12 Modelling Approach BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutline Activity Discussion

13. CPN’0410/10/2004 13 Modelling Approach BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutline Activity Input Information Output Information Discussion

14. CPN’0410/10/2004 14 Modelling Approach BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutline Activity Input Information Prior Activities Output Information Discussion

15. CPN’0410/10/2004 15 Modelling Approach BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutline Activity Required/Desired Staff Input Information Prior Activities Output Information {c 1,…,c N } c i = (n i, {s i1,…,s im }) Discussion {d 1,…,d M }

16. CPN’0410/10/2004 16 Modelling Approach BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutline Activity Duration Required/Desired Staff Input Information Prior Activities Output Information Discussion

17. CPN’0410/10/2004 17 Modelling Approach Data Collection Planning Documentation ADFP9 Chapter 8, Joint Planning DJFHQ SOP310, The Operational Planning Process Data Collection Sheets Working with DJFHQ Staff Observing Planning Exercises Vital Vision 2001 Vital Launch 2002 BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion

18. CPN’0410/10/2004 18 Overview of the CPN Model BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion Activity Pages JMAP Step Pages JMAP Page Intermediate Pages

19. CPN’0410/10/2004 19 Overview of the CPN Model BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion

20. CPN’0410/10/2004 20 Overview of the CPN Model BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion Activity Required/Desired Staff Input Information Prior Activities Output Information

21. CPN’0410/10/2004 21 Overview of the CPN Model BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion

22. CPN’0410/10/2004 22 Overview of the CPN Model JMAP Step Page – Mission Analysis BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion Activity Pages Intermediate Pages

23. CPN’0410/10/2004 23 Overview of the CPN Model Activity Page - Draft Comd’s Guidance BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion

24. CPN’0410/10/2004 24 Overview of the CPN Model Activity Page - Draft Comd’s Guidance BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutline Required/Desired Staff Input Information Prior Activities Duration Output Information Activity Name JPG_Req JPG_Des 1`Prelim_Guidance++ 1`Proposed_DEs 1`MA7 1`Proposed_Intent 1`18 Discussion Common Inscriptions

25. CPN’0410/10/2004 25 Overview of the CPN Model Activity Page - Draft Comd’s Guidance BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion Start Activity Stop Activity …..++ 1`Prelim_Guidance++ 1`Proposed_Des++ ….. JPG_Res JPG_Des All Staff 1’18 ……..++ 1`Prelim_Guidance++ 1`Proposed_Des++ …….. …..++ ….. …..++MA6

26. CPN’0410/10/2004 26 Overview of the CPN Model Activity Page - Draft Comd’s Guidance BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion Start Activity Stop Activity …..++ ….. ……..++ ….. …..++ ….. …..++MA6

27. CPN’0410/10/2004 27 Overview of the CPN Model Activity Page - Draft Comd’s Guidance BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion Start Activity Stop Activity All Staff – JPG_Des+JPG_Res …..++ ….. …..++MA6 JPG_Res+JPG_Des @+286 …..++ 1`Prelim_Guidance++ 1`Proposed_Des++ ….. …..++ 1`Prelim_Guidance++ 1`Proposed_Des++ …..

28. CPN’0410/10/2004 28 Overview of the CPN Model Activity Page - Draft Comd’s Guidance BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion Start Activity Stop Activity All Staff – JPG_Des+JPG_Res …..++ ….. …..++MA6 JPG_Res+JPG_Des @+286 …..++ 1`Prelim_Guidance++ 1`Proposed_Des++ ….. …..++ 1`Prelim_Guidance++ 1`Proposed_Des++ …..

29. CPN’0410/10/2004 29 Overview of the CPN Model Activity Page - Draft Comd’s Guidance BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion Start Activity Stop Activity …..++ ….. …..++MA6 …..++ 1`Prelim_Guidance++ 1`Proposed_Des++ ….. …..++ 1`Prelim_Guidance++ 1`Proposed_Des++ …..

30. CPN’0410/10/2004 30 Overview of the CPN Model Activity Page - Draft Comd’s Guidance BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion Start Activity Stop Activity All Staff …..++ ….. …..++MA6 ++MA7 …..++ 1`Prelim_Guidance++ 1`Proposed_Des++ 1`Proposed_Intent++ ….. …..++ 1`Prelim_Guidance++ 1`Proposed_Des++ 1`Proposed_Intent++ …..

31. CPN’0410/10/2004 31 Simulation Simulations were performed to: Validate the CPN model (interactive simulations) Conduct initial analysis (automatic simulations) 1 Simulation is 1 possible execution of the CPN model Simulation reports were generated to investigate the behaviours of the process Reports were used to produce GANTT charts where the execution ended in a desired terminal state GANTT Charts show the what activities occur when BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion

32. CPN’0410/10/2004 32 Simulation Desired Terminal State All desired information produced All external information available at end All staff are returned All activities completed A plan was produced BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion

33. CPN’0410/10/2004 33 Simulation Desired Terminal State BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion 7 77 1 1 41

34. CPN’0410/10/2004 34 Simulation BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion

35. CPN’0410/10/2004 35 Simulation No Resource Requirements Also investigated the completion time when there were no resource requirements Process took 1845 minutes (compare to 2059) A large number of activities were concurrent Suggests that a method of improving the process is to enable concurrent activities through de- conflicting staff requirements BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion

36. CPN’0410/10/2004 36 Simulation No Resource Requirements BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion

37. CPN’0410/10/2004 37 State Space Analysis Interactive and automatic simulation helped validate the CPN model and provided initial analysis of the planning process To extend analysis, the full state space was calculated using Design/CPN: 14783 nodes 21690 arcs Generation time: 2 minutes 14 seconds (PIII Linux PC) BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion

38. CPN’0410/10/2004 38 State Space Analysis Boundedness Properties max/min tokens for each place BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutline PlaceUpper Bound Lower Bound External Information77 Completed Activities410 Input Information770 Output Information770 Planning Completed10 Discussion

39. CPN’0410/10/2004 39 State Space Analysis Liveness 14 reachable dead states All 14 were desired (based on predicate) Therefore if the planning process terminates, then it terminates in the desired state Dead states ­2141 minutes (worst case) ­2059 (best case) The optimal schedule for the planning process can be obtained by taking any path from the initial state, to a terminate state where the process has terminated at 2059 minutes BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion

40. CPN’0410/10/2004 40 State Space Analysis Completion times Earliest and latest time for each activity Obtained by traversing the state space using non- standard ML queries BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion ActivityEarliestLatest MA1128 MA1228256 MA1356414 MA228157 MA365286 MA465286 MA583286 MA665268 MA785286 MA81277323 MA82350432 MA83387469 MA84424506

41. CPN’0410/10/2004 41 State Space Analysis – Sweep Line Full state space analysis was feasible in this study More complex and detailed processes are likely to cause state space explosion We applied the sweep line technique to this study This framework can be used to test variations of the JMAP and other processes BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion

42. CPN’0410/10/2004 42 State Space Analysis – Sweep Line The sweep line technique can be applied to systems which have the formal notion of progress Exploiting progress allows “old states” to be deleted and reclaimed in memory “on-the-fly” We are able to apply the sweep line to our CPN model as successor states are equal or greater in time BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion

43. CPN’0410/10/2004 43 State Space Analysis –Sweep Line BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutline 1 2 3 4 56 7 15 9 8 1314161718 101112 Discussion Layer 0 (0) Layer 1 (10) Fully processed stateUnprocessed state 10 Not yet calculated

44. CPN’0410/10/2004 44 State Space Analysis –Sweep Line Sweep line method applied to CPN model Max nodes in memory = 2149 Generation Time = 2 mins 33 secs (full state space 2 mins 14 secs Full State Space applied to CPN model Max nodes in memory = 14783 (7x more states) Generation Time = 2 mins 14 secs (~20 secs quicker) BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion

45. CPN’0410/10/2004 45 Summary A CPN model has been developed based on the DJFHQ planning process This model has been validated using interactive simulation Initial analysis has been conducted using simulation Full analysis has been done by using full state space exploration Sweep line methods have been applied with promising results BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion

46. CPN’0410/10/2004 46 Summary – Future Work Extension of the model to represent other related processes that interact with the JMAP Replacement of deterministic duration with time intervals Using the CPN model for training purposes within the Headquarters Development of a planning plan for scheduleing and monitoring the process during a planning exercise Implementation of models in CPN Tools BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryOutlineDiscussion

47. CPN’0410/10/2004 47 Discussion BackgroundJMAPApproachCPN ModelSimulation State Space Analysis SummaryDiscussionOutline