1. Democracy and National Security or could it be golf?

2. Democracy Promotion and National Security Primary Objective of US National Security Bush Administration Promoting free and open societies around the world  The National Security Strategy (NSS -2002): “there is a single sustainable model for national success: freedom, democracy, and free enterprise”

3. Iraq and Afghanistan

4. Democracy Promotion and National Security Also Large Part of Clinton National Security Strategy Why?  Why is democracy associated with peace?  Are people in democracies just nicer?

5. Democracy Promotion and National Security  Where academics and policy collide The Democratic Peace Proposition:  Democracies do not got war with one another. Can we prove this? What is the causal mechanism? Are there other explanations?

6. Alternative to Democracy Golf leads to World Peace! Golf is a non-zero sum game -Diminishes conflict

7. Golf and World Peace Hypothesis: Golfing nations never go to war with each other How to test this hypothesis 1. I’ll Define golfing/non-golfing nations as 1 course per million of population 2. Check the war involvement of golfing nations: never on opposite sides of a war. Exceptions 1) Britain vs. Argentina (prob. Fewer golf courses in 1982) and Northern Ireland (Basques in Spain?) 2) South Africa.

8. Criticisms? 1. Criticism: many violent game are also played in golfing countries. 1. At what level does the theory work? Leaders, population in general, environmental? 2. Leaders in non-golfing country often play golf but it does not inhibit conflict there? 3. Most people in golfing states don’t play golf! 3. Spurious Correlation! Golf occurs mainly in wealthy countries! How might you prove this? Test: weather wealthy nations fight. Define wealth. Reject: France and Germany both among the wealthiest nations in 1939!

9. Okay Back to Democracy

10. The Influence of Regime Type on International Relations 1. Classifying Regimes: Autocracy Versus Democracy 2. Possible Hypotheses Related to Regime Types H1: Democracy --(-)--> Income Inequality H2: Autocracy --(+)--> Revolts And Domestic Unrest H3: Democracy --(-)--> Economic Development H4: Autocracy --(-)--> Economic Development 3. Our Hypothesis Relating Regime Type And War H5: Democracy --(-)--> War Proneness

11. Democracies And War 1. Immanuel Kant’s “Perpetual Peace” (1795) Prediction: Spread Of Democracy Will Cause Peace Rationale: Distribution Of Costs And Benefits Of War --Elites Reap Benefits While People Pay Costs Conclusion: More Inclusive Political Institutions Should Lead To A Permanent Peace R.I.P. “Perpetual Peace”

12. How Could You Test Kant’s Argument? Democracies And War Democratic States Probability of Initiating War (-) B) State Level Test: Higher Percentage of Democracies Amount of War in the System (-) A) Systemic Test:

13. Systemic Test: Democratization

14. Systemic Test: War

15. Systemic Test: Democracy & War

16. State Level Test A) Quincy Wright (1942): No Support B) Small And Singer (1976): No Support C) A more recent test: Doyle (1983) War Involvement H1: Democracy --(-)--> War Involvement

17. Doyle’s Approach: Dyadic Peace Side B DemocracyAutocracy Democracy Autocracy Side A None Lots Dyadic Democratic Peace: A) Democracies Are Peaceful With Each Other B) But Democracies Are Just As Conflictual As Other States When Facing Non-democracies

18. Empirical Evidence WarNo war Joint democracy 03878 One not democratic 322527225203 322904929081 Source: Politically relevant dyads Russett “Grasping the Democratic Peace”

19. Is it really true? Top 10 Possible exceptions 1. Athens vs. Syracuse 415-413BC 2. US imperial wars against native Americans 3. Israel vs. Lebanon 1967 4. India vs. Pakistan 1948 5. Boer war 1899-1902 6. WW2: Hitler came to power by more or less democratic means! 7. WW2 Again!: Finland is democratic 8. Spanish-American War 1898 9. US civil war 1861-1865 10. War of 1812

20. How do we define our terms What is democracy and what is war ?  Democracy?  War?

21. Three Hypotheses about the Democratic Peace Pacific Publics Normative Institutions

22. Can Kant and the Pacific Public Explain the Democratic Peace? The Argument: Public Does Not Want To Pay For Costly Wars. Problems: 1) Democracies Should Be Peaceful With Everyone 2) Many Examples Of Pro-War Publics (e.g., Spanish-American War & Crimean War) H1: Pacific Public --(-)--> Conflict Between Democracies

23. Can Peaceful Norms Of Conflict Resolution Explain The Democratic Peace? Problems: 1) Democracies Don’t Always Have Peaceful Norms 2) Externalization Is Not Automatic 3) Implies All Authoritarian Are Equally War Prone 4) What About Young Democracies? Do Democracies Produce Better People? H2: Peaceful Norms Of ----(-)-----> Conflict Between Democracies Conflict Resolution Argument: 1) Socialized To Favor Non-violent Resolution Conflicts. 2) Domestic Norms are Externalized 3) Expect Other Democracies to be Less Conflict Prone

24. Can Institutional Constraints Explain the Democratic Peace? H3: Institutional --(-)--> Conflict Between Democracies Constraints Argument: 1) All Leaders Wish to Remain in Office 2) Support and Opposition Exists in All Societies 3) Opposition Exploits Failure to Punish Leaders 4) The Greater the Opposition, the More Cautious the Leader 5) Expect Other Democracies to be Constrained Problems: 1) Some Types of Autocratic Institutions are Constrained 2) Open Institutions Does Not Guarantee Opposition

25. Bottom Line Strong Consensus that Democracies Are Less Likely to Use Large Scale Force Against Other Democracies Still Working Out Causal Explanation Democratic Norms Democratic Structures InternationalConflict (-)

26. Lessons From The Democratic Peace Investigation 1. Correlations Can Be Spurious; -- You Must Investigate The Causal Guts 2. Some Hypotheses Or Explanations Can Be Eliminated (e.g., Pacific Publics) 3. Important Practical Implications: a) Is Covert Action A Permanent Problem? b) Are Young Democracies More War Prone? c) Could a Quasi-Democratic Russia Be Partially Constrained?

27. Policy Implications? Depends on which casual mechanism is correct?  Pacific Publics? – Yes peace  Norms? – Maybe but when?  Leaders? – For the moment but no guarantees!