1. Consequences of Regional-Scale Nuclear Conflicts: Understanding and Avoiding Nuclear Catastrophe

2. R.S. Norris, H.M. Kristensen, Bull. Atom. Scientists, 62 (4), 64 (2006). History of Nuclear Warheads

3. New nuclear states continue to appear

4. Nuclear Weapons States D. Albright, F. Berkhout, W. Walker, Plutonium and Highly Enriched Uranium, 1996 (Oxford, 1997) http://www.isis-online.orghttp://www.isis-online.org R.S. Norris, H.M. Kristensen, Bull. Atom. Scientists, 61 (3), 64 (2005). NWS DeFacto Israel, 116 (102-130) Pakistan, 52 (44-62), 1998 South Africa 7, dismantled 1989, 1979? North Korea, 10?, 2007 India, 85 (65-110), 1974, 1998

6. Fatalities relative to previous conflicts

7. Fatality Estimates for Nuclear Wars SourceTotal Yield# of WeaponsFatalities Ambio (1982) (world) 5569 Mt14,747950,000,000 Harwell (1984)1400 Mt>300050-100,000,000 (blast) OTA (1979) U.S. 1000s Mt1000s20-160,000,000 OTA (1979) Counterforce ““2-20,000,000 (fallout) Daugherty (1986) Counterforce 1340 Mt30007-19,000,000 (blast) Regional U.S.0.75 Mt504,000,000 Regional India/Pakistan 1.5 Mt10026,000,000 The deaths per kt are 100 times greater for small yield weapons than for large ones.

9. Fuel loading per person We assume fuel loading is proportional to population

10. Soot Generation from 50, 15 kt Weapons

12. Global ozone loss Edge of the Ozone hole

13. Summary The number of nuclear states is growing 40 countries have enough fissionable materials for 1- 10 4 weapons. Modern nuclear weapons are small and lightweight. One weapon detonated by a terrorist could cause a million casualties. 50 nuclear explosions of 15 kt yield can cause as many fatalities as once projected for a full scale “counterforce” war between the superpowers. Large amounts of smoke can be generated from a regional war that could trigger global climate change and ozone loss affecting non-combatant countries.

14. ATMOSPHERIC EFFECTS AND SOCIETAL CONSEQUENCES OF REGIONAL SCALE NUCLEAR CONFLICTS AND ACTS OF INDIVIDUAL NUCLEAR TERRORISM Owen B. Toon, Richard P. Turco, Alan Robock, Charles Bardeen, Luke Oman, Georgiy L. Stenchikov Atmos. Chem. Phys.. 7, 2003-2012, 2007 and Based on the Papers: CLIMATIC CONSEQUENCES OF REGIONAL SCALE NUCLEAR CONFLICTS Alan Robock, Luke Oman, Georgiy L. Stenchikov, Owen B. Toon, Charles Bardeen, Richard P. Turco Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 1973-2002, 2007

15. End of talk the following are spare slides

16. 1-100 weapons100-1000 weapons>1000 weapons D. Albright, F. Berkhout, W. Walker, Plutonium and Highly Enriched Uranium, 1996 (Oxford, 1997) http://www.isis-online.orghttp://www.isis-online.org 40 countries have the fissile material to build at least one bomb

17. Radiation Fatalities for Various Countries from 50 weapons with yield of 15 kt