1. Just how much delinquency is going on?
Defining/Measuring Juvenile Crime
Trends in Juvenile Delinquency, and Abuse/Neglect
The Danger of Misusing Data

2. Types of Delinquency Status Offenses
Hard to get reliable information
Self-report probably most accurate
Delinquent Activity (“Crime” for adults)
Same sources of information as for adults, but how to tease out age?
Even when we get age = “less than 18”
Abuse/Neglect Cases
Official Data very suspect (sexual abuse example)

3. Uniform Crime Reports Best for Serious Offenses/Crime Trends
Offenses Known to police (useless for JD)
Arrests/Crimes Cleared by Arrest Keep information for <18 years
Bias = police discretion& practices, reporting
Serious crimes <bias (discretion, reporting)
Murder most reliable
Downside = only most serious offenders included

4. New System = NIBRS
Get more detailed information about each “incident” (violent only)
Law Enforcement’s assessment of which crimes were committed by juveniles based on report/other evidence
19% of the victims of nonfatal violent crimes were victimized by juvenile offender(s)
Most victims (62%) in these offenses were also juveniles
Some differences (e.g., robbery = 42%)
Most offenses involved victims known to offenders (only 12% were against strangers).

5. National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS)
National household victimization survey
For juveniles, cannot assess property crime
National Trends for Juvenile Violent Crime can be estimated
Aggravated Assault, Robbery, Forcible Rape (Not Murder)
Upside = dark figure
Downside = know age of offender?

6. Self-Report Surveys
No government sponsored annual national level survey (not used for “trends”)
Many different researchers with national surveys, some longitudinal:
National Youth Survey (NYS)
National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY)
Monitoring the Future Survey
Best Uses = Correlates of Delinquency
Especial for theory testing, but also race and gender differences

7. Self-Report II The Good The Bad Measure all kinds of correlates
Not subject to “official bias”
The Bad
Difficult to measure serious crime (rare event)
Difficult to get/retain chronic offenders
Therefore, SR surveys tend to measure minor forms of delinquency
Various survey biases (people lie, can’t remember, etc.)

8. What do we know? Current Levels of Delinquency
2002 UCR Arrest Information (<18 years)
2.3 million arrests
Arrests peaked in 1994, and declined thereafter (NCVS follow similar pattern)
Violent Crime Index declined for 8th straight year (down 47% from )
Murder rate from down 74%
Self-Report: 20% of 12th Graders report using an illicit drug in past 30 days.

9. Self-Report Example MTF: Use of Pot in Past 30 Days
Percent Using in Past 30 Days

15. What does the NCVS say? Confined to Violent Crime
Unsurprising much violent juvenile offending unreported to police
Average Crime Rate—1980 to 1998
UCR: 5/100,000
NCVS: 44-75/100,000
Why? (From victim survey)
Only 20% reported to police
Of those, only 50% lead to arrest

16. NCVS Crime Trends
The Broad Trend in UCR Violent Crime Index is similar to NCVS (Violent Crimes)
Both decrease in early 1980s, followed by increase from mid-1980s to mid 1990s
Both show substantial drop after mid 1990s
Differences?
NCVS offending drops more (60%) in late 1990s than UCR (27%)

19. Why has juvenile crime declined?
Juveniles have declined in the population?
NO: The proportion of juveniles has been
increasing in the 1990s (echo boomers are coming)
Poverty, Economy, Public Policy?
No clear indications of This

20. “Super Predators”: Ideology and A Fools Errand
William Bennett, John DiIulio and John Walter Body Count (1996)
Super Predators Thesis
Juvenile crime rates will continue to spiral out of control
By 2010, some 270,000 “SP’s” will wreck havoc on society
TIME Magazine (1996): “Ticking Time Bomb”
Advocated unsealing juvenile records, mandatory minimums, waiver…”get tough”
Legislation Follows (G.W. in Texas)