1. Risk normally associated with large adverse or negative events Accidents Disasters Epidemics Financial crashes Outbreaks of disease

2. Risk How can we define risk? How is it measured?

3. Statistics of Extreme events Voit Chapter 7 N realisations, x 1..x N of random variable X What is maximum value in set {x n }?

8. Risk control Standard measure is volatility, σ τ –Standard deviation of time series over time scale, τ Measure of risk both big and small Widely used since early 20 th century But now know fluctuations are NOT Gaussian

12. Standard measure is volatility