1. Lec 29: Ch3.(T&LD): Traffic Analysis – Non-site traffic forecast Understand why estimating non-site traffic forecast is necessary Know three principal methods of projecting non-site traffic Learn the advantages and concerns of the three principal methods

2. Why must we estimate non-site traffic? Estimates of non-site traffic in the horizon year characterize the “base” conditions for the proposed development  What would be the traffic in the study area without the subject site being developed? Components of non-site traffic: Through traffic consisting of all movements through the study area, without OD in the study area Traffic generated by all other developments in the study area, with OD in the study area (i.e., trips which do not have an origin or destination on the site of the proposed or existing development)

3. Methodology Build-up method using specific development Use of area transportation plan or modeled volumes Trends or growth rates Estimate the “base” condition in the horizon year.

4. Advantages and concerns: 1. Build-up method Typically appropriate in areas of moderate growth Usually used when project has horizon of 10 years or less Often best method when there is good local information on development approval

5. Advantages and concerns: 2. Use of transportation plan Often used with large, regional projects that will develop over a long period Often appropriate for areas of high growth Locally credible transportation plan data that is adaptable to the study year must be available

6. Advantages and concerns: 3. Growth rates or trends method Typically used for small projects that will be built within a year or two Local record keeping of traffic counts must be good At least 5 years of data showing stable growth should be available Simple, straightforward approach Not appropriate for long- range horizon May result in over- or undercounting non-site traffic growth

7. Build-up method Appropriate when considering a study area with several major projects being developed during the same period as the subject project Most beneficial when desired to accurately reflect local area traffic patterns that will change as a result of limited or moderate non- site development or that are in an area where available traffic volume projects are sketchy

8. Build-up method: steps 1.Assess impacts of committed system improvements during forecast period 2.Identify study area development within forecast period 3.Estimate trip generation by build-ups 4.Estimate directional distribution 5. Assign traffic 6. Estimate growth in through traffic (This needs the other two methods) 7. Sum study area and through traffic 8. Check for logic of results and adjust as necessary

9. Use of area or sub-area transportation plan or modeled volumes Typically an area-wide transportation plan model is concerned with major roadways and is meant for really aggregated values. The object is to find trends None of the long-range forecast methods employed are intended to be accurate for the level of detail needed for intersections analysis  Volume (especially turning volumes) may not be accurate at all. Watch out! Often turning conflicts are accounted for by using surrogate values like “turning penalties”. (We skip the Graphical method in pages 65-70.)

10. Trends or growth rate method Assumption: Recent growth rates in traffic volumes will continued through the study target year, or will change predictably  both inside- and outside of the study area Normally should not be used for horizons beyond 10 years due to the variability in growth rates over time and the magnitude of error that may result due to a relatively small error in the growth rate over a longer period of time. 0.5% 10% 6% 246 Year 0 Traffic year n = (Traffic year 0) x (1 + GF) n

11. Case studies from p.70-78 Read these two case studies carefully to understand the general procedures of TIA’s. (We will cover these case studies in class when time permits.)

12. General guidelines Check for the reasonableness of the proposed final projection of non-site traffic When the build-up or transportation plan volumes are used, assess the percentage increase on critical street segments  assess if growth rate is reasonable It may be that the impact of an increase in non-site traffic is greater than that generated by the site under study  this will affect cost-sharing with the local government  Estimating non-site traffic for the horizon year is the most critical single factor in determining roadway improvement needs Be ware of and consider the programmed or planned transportation system changes (which are highly likely)