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Hurricane Juan (2003): A Diagnostic and Compositing Study Ron McTaggart-Cowan 1, Eyad Atallah 2, John Gyakum 2, and Lance Bosart 1 1 University of Albany,

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Presentation on theme: "Hurricane Juan (2003): A Diagnostic and Compositing Study Ron McTaggart-Cowan 1, Eyad Atallah 2, John Gyakum 2, and Lance Bosart 1 1 University of Albany,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Hurricane Juan (2003): A Diagnostic and Compositing Study Ron McTaggart-Cowan 1, Eyad Atallah 2, John Gyakum 2, and Lance Bosart 1 1 University of Albany, Albany NY 2 McGill University, Montreal, QC

2 Outline ● Introduction and background ● Compositing study ● Analysis of Hurricane Juan's lifecycle Midlatitude precursors Easterly wave development Tropical transition ● Summary and discussion 2215 UTC 28 September 2003 QuikSCAT-NRT Image courtesy of NRL

3 Introduction and Background NHC Best Track for Hurricane Juan (2003) ● First identified as a TD at 12/24 ● Maximum intensity of Cat 2 969 hPa (90 kt) at 18/27 ● Landfall near Halifax, NS at 03/29

4 Introduction and Background Photo courtesy of the Canadian Hurricane Centre ● Hurricanes usually recurve east of Nova Scotia under westerlies ● Extratropical transition is expected in the midlatitude flow How common is Atlantic hurricane landfall at high latitudes?

5 Compositing Study Composite search criteria: ● Atlantic hurricanes between 1948 and 2002 ● Landfall north of 40 o N (NHC Best Track) ● Motion vector in the northern quadrant on landfall Carol (1953)Ginny (1963) Carol (1954)Gerda (1969) Edna (1954)Blanche (1975) Donna (1960)Bertha (1990) The NCEP Reanalysis (2.5 o grid) dataset is used for composite analysis

6 Compositing Study ● 500 hPa heights and anomalies prior to landfall (T-00h) ● Shading indicates statistical significance ● Propagating ridging builds along the east coast before landfall time

7 Compositing Study ● Meridional flow over eastern North America with a trough/ridge couplet along the Eastern Seaboard: Strong southerly geostrophic steering flow Warm through a deep layer ahead of the storm Low shear midlatitude environment

8 Lifecycle Analysis - Midlatitude Precursors Dynamic tropopause (2 PVU surface) potential temperature in colour. Winds on the dynamic tropopause are plotted in white/black for readability only. Short, long and flag pennants represent 5, 10 and 50 kt winds, respectively. 0000 UTC 24 September A B T

9 Dynamic tropopause (2 PVU surface) potential temperature in colour. Winds on the dynamic tropopause are plotted in white/black for readability only. Short, long and flag pennants represent 5, 10 and 50 kt winds, respectively. 0000 UTC 25 September A B T Lifecycle Analysis - Midlatitude Precursors

10 Dynamic tropopause (2 PVU surface) potential temperature in colour. Winds on the dynamic tropopause are plotted in white/black for readability only. Short, long and flag pennants represent 5, 10 and 50 kt winds, respectively. 0000 UTC 26 September A B J Lifecycle Analysis - Midlatitude Precursors

11 Dynamic tropopause (2 PVU surface) potential temperature in colour. Winds on the dynamic tropopause are plotted in white/black for readability only. Short, long and flag pennants represent 5, 10 and 50 kt winds, respectively. 0000 UTC 27 September A B J Lifecycle Analysis - Midlatitude Precursors

12 Dynamic tropopause (2 PVU surface) potential temperature in colour. Winds on the dynamic tropopause are plotted in white/black for readability only. Short, long and flag pennants represent 5, 10 and 50 kt winds, respectively. 0000 UTC 28 September A B J Lifecycle Analysis - Midlatitude Precursors

13 Dynamic tropopause (2 PVU surface) potential temperature in colour. Winds on the dynamic tropopause are plotted in white/black for readability only. Short, long and flag pennants represent 5, 10 and 50 kt winds, respectively. 0000 UTC 29 September A B J Lifecycle Analysis - Midlatitude Precursors

14 Lifecycle Analysis – Easterly Wave ● Strong EW crosses West African coast on 00/11, focusing convection as it propagates ● By 00/20, the EW structure becomes complex as 850 hPa relative vorticity on subdomains showing the propagation of Juan's easterly wave precursor. Dates as indicated on the individual panels. it begins to interact with a digging upper- level trough

15 Lifecycle Analysis – Tropical Transition ● EW provides lower-level vorticity seed ● Upper-level PV tail provides a band of synoptically-forced ascent ● Although each structure in itself is insufficient to produce a self-sustaining system (i.e. WISHE – Emanuel 1987) their combination is ● The tropical transition of Hurricane Juan follows the Weak Extratropical Cyclone (WEC) paradigm of Davis and Bosart (2004)

16 Dynamic tropopause (2 PVU surface) potential temperature in colour. 850 hPa relative vorticity is contoured at 6x10 -5 s - 1 intervals above 1.2x10 -4 s -1. Winds on the dynamic tropopause are plotted in white/black for readability only. Short, long and flag pennants represent 5, 10 and 50 kt winds, respectively. 0000 UTC 24 September T S Loop: 00/24 - 00/29 Lifecycle Analysis – Tropical Transition

17 1200 UTC 24 September T S Loop: 00/24 - 00/29 Lifecycle Analysis – Tropical Transition Dynamic tropopause (2 PVU surface) potential temperature in colour. 850 hPa relative vorticity is contoured at 6x10 -5 s - 1 intervals above 1.2x10 -4 s -1. Winds on the dynamic tropopause are plotted in white/black for readability only. Short, long and flag pennants represent 5, 10 and 50 kt winds, respectively.

18 0000 UTC 25 September T S Loop: 00/24 - 00/29 Lifecycle Analysis – Tropical Transition Dynamic tropopause (2 PVU surface) potential temperature in colour. 850 hPa relative vorticity is contoured at 6x10 -5 s - 1 intervals above 1.2x10 -4 s -1. Winds on the dynamic tropopause are plotted in white/black for readability only. Short, long and flag pennants represent 5, 10 and 50 kt winds, respectively.

19 1200 UTC 25 September S T Loop: 00/24 - 00/29 Lifecycle Analysis – Tropical Transition Dynamic tropopause (2 PVU surface) potential temperature in colour. 850 hPa relative vorticity is contoured at 6x10 -5 s - 1 intervals above 1.2x10 -4 s -1. Winds on the dynamic tropopause are plotted in white/black for readability only. Short, long and flag pennants represent 5, 10 and 50 kt winds, respectively.

20 0000 UTC 26 September T J S Loop: 00/24 - 00/29 Lifecycle Analysis – Tropical Transition Dynamic tropopause (2 PVU surface) potential temperature in colour. 850 hPa relative vorticity is contoured at 6x10 -5 s - 1 intervals above 1.2x10 -4 s -1. Winds on the dynamic tropopause are plotted in white/black for readability only. Short, long and flag pennants represent 5, 10 and 50 kt winds, respectively.

21 1200 UTC 26 September T J S Loop: 00/24 - 00/29 Lifecycle Analysis – Tropical Transition Dynamic tropopause (2 PVU surface) potential temperature in colour. 850 hPa relative vorticity is contoured at 6x10 -5 s - 1 intervals above 1.2x10 -4 s -1. Winds on the dynamic tropopause are plotted in white/black for readability only. Short, long and flag pennants represent 5, 10 and 50 kt winds, respectively.

22 0000 UTC 27 September J S Loop: 00/24 - 00/29 Lifecycle Analysis – Tropical Transition Dynamic tropopause (2 PVU surface) potential temperature in colour. 850 hPa relative vorticity is contoured at 6x10 -5 s - 1 intervals above 1.2x10 -4 s -1. Winds on the dynamic tropopause are plotted in white/black for readability only. Short, long and flag pennants represent 5, 10 and 50 kt winds, respectively.

23 1200 UTC 27 September J S Loop: 00/24 - 00/29 Lifecycle Analysis – Tropical Transition Dynamic tropopause (2 PVU surface) potential temperature in colour. 850 hPa relative vorticity is contoured at 6x10 -5 s - 1 intervals above 1.2x10 -4 s -1. Winds on the dynamic tropopause are plotted in white/black for readability only. Short, long and flag pennants represent 5, 10 and 50 kt winds, respectively.

24 0000 UTC 28 September J Loop: 00/24 - 00/29 Lifecycle Analysis – Tropical Transition Dynamic tropopause (2 PVU surface) potential temperature in colour. 850 hPa relative vorticity is contoured at 6x10 -5 s - 1 intervals above 1.2x10 -4 s -1. Winds on the dynamic tropopause are plotted in white/black for readability only. Short, long and flag pennants represent 5, 10 and 50 kt winds, respectively.

25 1200 UTC 28 September J Loop: 00/24 - 00/29 Lifecycle Analysis – Tropical Transition Dynamic tropopause (2 PVU surface) potential temperature in colour. 850 hPa relative vorticity is contoured at 6x10 -5 s - 1 intervals above 1.2x10 -4 s -1. Winds on the dynamic tropopause are plotted in white/black for readability only. Short, long and flag pennants represent 5, 10 and 50 kt winds, respectively.

26 0000 UTC 29 September J Loop: 00/24 - 00/29 Lifecycle Analysis – Tropical Transition Dynamic tropopause (2 PVU surface) potential temperature in colour. 850 hPa relative vorticity is contoured at 6x10 -5 s - 1 intervals above 1.2x10 -4 s -1. Winds on the dynamic tropopause are plotted in white/black for readability only. Short, long and flag pennants represent 5, 10 and 50 kt winds, respectively.

27 Potential temperature anomaly on the dynamic tropopause (2 PVU surface) relative to the Eady basic state. Sea level pressure isobars are contoured in black at 4 hPa intervals. 0000 UTC 24 September L T S Loop: 00/24 - 12/26 Lifecycle Analysis – Tropical Transition

28 Potential temperature anomaly on the dynamic tropopause (2 PVU surface) relative to the Eady basic state. Sea level pressure isobars are contoured in black at 4 hPa intervals. 1200 UTC 24 September L T S Loop: 00/24 - 12/26 Lifecycle Analysis – Tropical Transition

29 Potential temperature anomaly on the dynamic tropopause (2 PVU surface) relative to the Eady basic state. Sea level pressure isobars are contoured in black at 4 hPa intervals. 0000 UTC 25 September L T S Loop: 00/24 - 12/26 Lifecycle Analysis – Tropical Transition

30 Potential temperature anomaly on the dynamic tropopause (2 PVU surface) relative to the Eady basic state. Sea level pressure isobars are contoured in black at 4 hPa intervals. 1200 UTC 25 September L T S Loop: 00/24 - 12/26 Lifecycle Analysis – Tropical Transition

31 Potential temperature anomaly on the dynamic tropopause (2 PVU surface) relative to the Eady basic state. Sea level pressure isobars are contoured in black at 4 hPa intervals. 0000 UTC 26 September J T S Loop: 00/24 - 12/26 Lifecycle Analysis – Tropical Transition

32 Potential temperature anomaly on the dynamic tropopause (2 PVU surface) relative to the Eady basic state. Sea level pressure isobars are contoured in black at 4 hPa intervals. 1200 UTC 26 September J T S Loop: 00/24 - 12/26 Lifecycle Analysis – Tropical Transition

33 Summary and Discussion ● Both the compositing and the case study shows that east coast ridging is important for high latitude landfalling hurricanes: Enhances southerly geostrophic steering flow Creates a warm environment conducive the maintenance of the tropical vortex Reduces shear and decreases baroclinicity ahead of the hurricane ● Hurricane outflow reinforce the pre-existing ridge

34 Summary and Discussion ● Easterly wave and midlatitude trough (PV tail) features interact during Juan's tropical transition ● A Weak Extratropical Cyclone (Davis and Bosart 2004) transition occurs: Strong coupling of the lower-level perturbation to the upper-level disturbance during transition A convective mesoscale vorticity maximum is enhanced by synoptically-forced ascent

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