2. PART 5
THE REAL ECONOMY 16
GDP 潛能與經濟成長
CHAPTER

3. C H A P T E R C H E C K L I S T
When you have completed your study of this chapter, you will be able to
解釋 GDP 潛能、實質工資與充分就業的決定因素 1
定義計算經濟成長路，並解釋永續成長的涵義 2
確認經濟成長率，並解釋經濟成長的意涵 3
描述促進經濟加速成長的政策 4

4. 兩大學派 研究總體經濟的方法 研究總體經濟學的兩種主要方法是根據兩大學派的思想： 古典總體經濟學 凱因斯總體經濟學
Don’t skip over the Lucas wedge and Okun gap material in the “Eye On the U.S. Economy.”

5. 研究總體經濟的方法 古典總體經濟學 有關市場經濟的運作，以及市場經濟為何經歷經濟成長與波動的理論
古典學派的觀點是市場本身就運作良好，且達成最佳的經濟表現
經濟景氣會有所波動，經濟成長有時趨緩，而政府沒有對策可以改善經濟表現。

6. 研究總體經濟的方法 古典學派的理論在 1930 年代引起爭論，當時全球經濟在十年間處於高失業與停滯成長的情況 大蕭條
古典經濟學派認為大蕭條終將結束，但是並未提供任何使得大蕭條早點結束的對策

7. 研究總體經濟的方法
凱因斯總體經濟學
有關市場經濟如何運作的理論，但強調市場經濟固有的不穩定性，以及需要積極的政府干預，以達成充分就業與永續的經濟成長。
凱因斯學派認為，蕭條與高失業發生的原因，在於家計單位對消費性貨品與服務的消費不足，廠商對新資本的投資也不足，亦即私人消費太少導致經濟衰退。

8. 研究總體經濟的方法 凱因斯學派認為，為了克服私人消費太少的問題，政府支出必須增加。
但凱因斯認為在他的對策下，經濟雖然回復至充分就業，仍存在兩個長期的問題。
凱因斯的預測成真，通貨膨脹在 1960 年代逐漸升溫，而在 1970 年代加劇，實質 GDP 成長遲緩，失業率上升。

9. 新總體經濟理論 研究總體經濟的方法 認為總體結果取決於個體選擇 — 市場上彼此互動的理性個人與廠商的選擇
新古典學派融合古典學派的觀點：市場本身能夠適切地運作；而新凱因斯學派融合凱因斯學派的觀點：市場對衝擊的調適緩慢

10. 研究總體經濟的方法
這兩個學派的關鍵差異在於價格與工資面對需求或供給過剩時的調整速度。
該差異其實很小，且共識已逐漸浮現

11. 16.1 GDP 潛能 GDP 潛能 指經濟在充分就業下的實質 GDP 實質 GDP 是透過雇用生產要素而產生：資本、土地與企業行為
在特定的時間點，資本、土地與企業行為的數量固定，而且技術狀態固定，只有勞動數量可以變動
Students sometimes understand the definition of potential GDP but have a hard time seeing it in practice. You may want to spend some time comparing the United States to Europe using the Eye on the Global Economy box Potential GDP in the United States and Europe. If you talked about global differences in unemployment in chapter 21, discussing higher unemployment benefits and less flexible labor markets for France, Germany, and Italy, you can now use this information again to highlight how this determines differences in potential GDP. Use the Eye on the Global Economy box to describe the labor market differences. Mention that the higher unemployment benefits in Europe reduce the opportunity cost of job search. Together with differences in attitudes toward leisure, Europeans work an average of 28 hours per week compared to Americans’ 34 hours per week. Then link this discussion to the calculation of potential GDP. This will help to cement ideas that potential GDP is not some mythical number that is the same for each economy but that it depends on the underlying differences across countries, which include both labor market differences and productivity differences.

12. 16.1 GDP 潛能
勞動數量取決於人們在工作與休閒的時間分配
因此，實質 GDP 取決於受雇的勞動數量
實質 GDP 與受雇勞動數量的關係可以由生產函數表示，觀念類似生產可能邊界

13. 16.1 GDP 潛能
生產函數
代表在其他條件不變下，實質 GDP 與受雇勞動數量的關係。生產函數與生產可能邊界具有相似的特徵，生產函數也是代表無法達成與可能達成的生產界線

14. 16.1 GDP 潛能
圖 16.1 生產函數
勞動數量等於 1,000 億工時，實質 GDP 等於 $6 兆 (A 點)

15. 16.1 GDP 潛能 勞動數量等於 2,000 億 工時，實質 GDP 等於 $10 兆 (B 點)
勞動數量等於 3,000 億 工時，實質 GDP 等於 $12 兆 (C 點)
生產函數 PF

16. 16.1 GDP 潛能
生產函數代表無法達成與可達成的生產界線
生產函數顯示 報酬遞減： 實質 GDP 的增加量隨 著勞動數量增加而遞減

17. 16.1 GDP 潛能
勞動市場
勞動需求
勞動需求量
在既定的實質工資下，全部廠商雇用的勞動總工時。

18. 16.1 GDP 潛能
勞動需求
在其他條件不變下，勞動需求量與實質工資的關係
實質工資越低，則勞動需求量越大

19. 16.1 GDP 潛能
圖 16.2 勞動需求

20. 16.1 GDP 潛能
勞動供給
勞動供給量
在既定的實質工資下，家計單位決定提供的勞動總工時
在其他條件不變下，勞動供給量與實質工資的關係

21. 16.1 GDP 潛能
圖 16.3 勞動供給

22. 16.1 GDP 潛能
實質工資越高，則勞動供給量越多，原因在於：
每人提供的工時增加
勞動參與率上升

23. 16.1 GDP 潛能 勞動市場均衡 勞動需求量大於勞動供給量，產生勞動短缺的現象，於 是實質工資上漲。
勞動供給量大於勞動需求量，產生勞動過剩的現象，於 是實質工資下跌。
沒有短缺或過剩的現象，則勞動市場達成均衡

24. 16.1 GDP 潛能 圖 16.4 (a) 勞動市場均衡 1. 充分就業發生在勞動需求量等於勞動供給量之際
2. 均衡實質工資率等於 $30 /小時
3. 均衡就業數量等於 2,000 億小時/年

25. 16.1 GDP 潛能
充分就業與 GDP 潛能
當勞動市場達成均衡，則經濟處於充分就業，實質 GDP 等於 GDP 潛能

26. 16.1 GDP 潛能 圖 16.4(b) GDP 潛能 1. 充分就業水準等於 2,000 億小時/年 2. GDP 潛能為 $10 兆
This is a good place to try to get students to start thinking about the current position of the economy and then tie back to this in future chapters. Ask students to think about what they know about the economy regarding GDP and unemployment. Ask them whether they think that the unemployment rate is above or below the natural rate of unemployment in the United States (in other words, is unemployment high or low right now relative to where it is usually at–have students think about discussions of unemployment they might have heard on the news or at home to make some conjectures here). Use this discussion to determine whether the United States is at potential GDP, or perhaps above it or below it.
2. GDP 潛能為 $10 兆

27. 計算經濟成長率 16.2 經濟成長的基礎 經濟成長率 經濟成長是生產可能邊界的擴張，以特定期間的實質 GDP 成長作為經濟成長的指標
Economic growth is an exciting topic for students.
Provide this table:
Year Average income
(2000 dollars per person per year)
,521
,000
,000
,100,000
The data for 1800 to 2000 are actual and the future data are hypothetical based on projecting the growth rate of the past 200 years a further 200 years into the future
[Continued on next slide]

28. 16.2 經濟成長的基礎 計算公式如下： – 例如今年的實質 GDP 為 $8.4 兆，去年的實質 GDP 為 $8.0 兆，則
x 100 –
例如今年的實質 GDP 為 $8.4 兆，去年的實質 GDP 為 $8.0 兆，則
Ask your class what kind of life people had in the year 1800 with an average income of $762 a year in current dollars. Answers will vary but many students are likely to respond that life was quite hard. Transportation was limited to horses, and meals were all prepared at home from scratch and cooked over an open fire. Medical care was quite meager (even the stethoscope was sixteen years away in the making) and entertainment was limited to books and song. In fact, very few people actually owned a book besides the Bible in 1800! By 1900 life was a bit better. The advent of the railroad made transportation much more practical and efficient. The potbelly stove was now available to cook meals and we had even conquered a few diseases along the way.
Compare old jobs with the new by looking at the year 1900 versus today and the changes that have taken place with their development. Ask your students if they recognize the list of professions below. Make sure only to list the professions without the descriptions. Students will probably recognize a handful but there should be a good number that they have not heard of before. It makes for a great icebreaker when discussing how the economic landscape of the country has changed.
[Continued on next slide]
實質 GDP 成長率 =
$8.4 兆 – $8.0 兆
$8.0 兆
x 100
= 5 %

29. 16.2 經濟成長的基礎 每人實質 GDP 生活水準取決於每人實質 GDP 實質 GDP 除以人口數
Blacksmiths a person who works with iron
Wainrights a maker and repairer of wagons
Boilermakers a workman who makes, assembles or repairs boilers
Founders someone who melts and pours metal into molds
Coopers someone that makes or repairs wooden casks or tubs
Potters someone that makes pottery
Colliers a coal miner
Tinsmiths a worker who makes or repairs things of sheet metal
Millwrights someone who maintains and cares for mechanical equipment in a mill or factory
Virtually all of these professions are gone today. Theyʹve been replaced by mechanics, pilots, electricians, computer programmers, software designers, chemists, and engineers. You can ask your class what significant product developments occurred over the last 100 years that have been widely diffused throughout the economy. Here is a short list to get things going: radio, television, radar, tape recorder, computer, satellites, lasers, jet engine, nuclear power, robots, camcorders, cell phones, fiber‐optic cables, VCRs, and last but not least the Internet. The bottom line is that our economy has evolved from one that required mostly muscle when we were farmers to machines during the industrial age and finally to reliance on know‐how and creativity in the information age. The fruits of economic growth are higher product quality, less physical effort in producing goods and services, and larger amounts of leisure time.

30. 16.2 經濟成長的基礎 假設今年的實質 GDP 為 $8.4 兆，人口 2.02 億

31. 16.2 經濟成長的基礎 利用成長率的公式計算每人實質 GDP 成長率，於是 每人實質 GDP 成長率 $41,584 – $40,000
x 100
= 4 % =

32. 16.2 經濟成長的基礎 每人實質 GDP 成長率也可依下列公式計算： 每人實質 GDP 成長率 實質 GDP 成長率 人口 成長率 – =
人口 成長率 – =
人口 成長率
2.02 億 – 2 億
2 億
x 100
= 1 % =

33. 16.2 經濟成長的基礎 此公式清楚地顯示：實質 GDP 成長率大於人口成長率時，每人實質 GDP 才會成長 每人實質 GDP 成長率
5 % – 1 %
= % =
此公式清楚地顯示：實質 GDP 成長率大於人口成長率時，每人實質 GDP 才會成長

34. 永續成長的魔法 16.2 經濟成長的基礎 70 法則 每人實質 GDP 的永續成長可以使貧窮國家轉變成富有國家
以 70 除以變數的成長率，則為該變數成長一倍所需的年數
Ask the students if the economy will grow dramatically differently if the growth rate is 3 percent or 5 percent. Students will probably say that it won’t make much difference. But, counter that over longer periods of time it can make a substantial difference. You can demonstrate this fact with a few simple calculations. Assume a hypothetical economy that starts off with real GDP of $100 billion. The numbers in the table are the size of the economy in billions of dollars. What is instructive here is that small changes in the growth rate over short periods of time do not have much of an impact on the size of the economy. But small changes in growth rate over longer periods of time do. You can point out that the economy is almost at the same level at 5 percent growth after 10 years as it is at 3 percent after 20 years. In fact there is a very good historical example that you can point to that helps illustrate just how important small differences in economic growth can be. Since World War II the U.S. economy has grown at an average rate of approximately 3 percent a year. During the so‐called slow down of the 1970s the growth rate dropped by as much as half of its historical rate. Economists have estimated that this slow down has cost our economy at least three trillion dollars in lost output! You can explain that this is output that is irretrievably lost. That is, we cannot get it back.

35. 16.2 經濟成長的基礎 表 16.1 成長率 成長率 成長一年 (%/年) 所需的倍數 案例 2 35 U.S. 每人實質 GDP
成長率 成長一年
(%/年) 所需的倍數 案例
U.S. 每人實質 GDP
China 每人實質 GDP

36. 16.3 經濟成長的根源
影響實質 GDP 成長的因素分成兩大類：
總工時
勞動生產力

37. 總工時 16.3 經濟成長的根源 總工時的成長來自勞動力的成長，而不是個人平均工作時間的增加
勞動力的成長取決於人口與勞動參與率，勞動參與率在過去幾十年持續增加，但是已觸及上限，因此總工時的成長大部分源自於人口成長

38. 16.3 經濟成長的根源
勞動生產力
勞動生產力 平均每工時生產出的實質 GDP
計算公式如下：
實質 GDP
勞動生產力 =
總工時

39. 16.3 經濟成長的根源 例如，實質GDP 等於 $8 兆，總工時等於 2000 億小時，則， 2000 億小時 勞動生產力 = $8 兆
= $40 /小時
本公式可以改寫成
實質 GDP = 總工時 x 勞動生產力

40. 16.3 經濟成長的根源 勞動生產力上升時，實質 GDP 增加，勞動生產力上升是改善生活水準的基石。 勞動生產力的成長取決於：
物質資本的儲蓄與投資
人力資本的成長
新技術的發明

41. 16.3 經濟成長的根源 物質資本的儲蓄與投資 物質資本的儲蓄與投資將增加每位勞動者可使用的資本數量，於是勞動生產力提升 人力資本的成長
人力資本 — 知識與技能的累積 — 主要根源為：
教育與訓練
工作經驗

42. 16.3 經濟成長的根源
新技術的發明
物質資本與人力資本對經濟成長的貢獻良多，但是發明新技術的貢獻更大
例如：書寫與數學

43. 16.3 經濟成長的根源
圖 16.2 經濟成長的根源
實質 GDP 取決與總工時與勞動生產力

44. 16.3 經濟成長的根源
勞動生產力取決
物質資本
人力資本
技術狀態

45. 經濟成長的先決條件 16.4 達成快速的經濟成長 經濟自由 經濟自由是創造經濟成長誘因的基本先決條件
人們能夠從事個人選擇，私人財產受到保護，且可以在市場上自由買賣
If you have technology available in your classroom, play a clip from one of the bands that played in the Live 8 concerts of July 2005 (for example, U2). Alternatively, play a clip of Bob Geldof or Bono (of U2) talking about the Live 8 concerts. Some of these can be found at the Live 8 website, (go to and scroll down to find film clips of Bono, Nelson Mandela, and others). Most students will recognize Bono and will be drawn in by music clips or photos of the concerts (photos can be found at This can lead to a discussion of the goal of Live 8 in trying to generate support for debt relief for poor nations before a meeting of the G8 countries (July 2005). Conduct a reality check with students that this is one of the big unanswered ‘questions’ in macroeconomics. There are a multitude of groups, individuals researchers, and governments trying to figure out how to help economies grow and to reduce poverty worldwide. Even the poorest of our students has little comprehension of what poverty truly is and what economic growth seeks to combat and can accomplish. You can give them a moving and in places shocking glimpse by asking them to “listen to the voices” at this World Bank Web page:
[Continued on next slide]

46. 16.4 達成快速的經濟成長 財產權 經濟自由要求私人財產受到保護 — 私人財產就是人們擁有的生產要素與貨品 管理私人財產的保護
經濟自由的前提是自由市場
The major obstacles to growth are political, and economists don’t know much about how to remove those political obstacles. You can give your students a glimpse of these obstacles in their worst form by reminding them of news video clips they’ve almost certainly seen of Kabul, Mogadishu, and other troubled cities in which the rule of law has completely broken down. Economists know a lot about how to make an economy grow if the preconditions are in place, but virtually nothing about how to bring those preconditions about.
The three preconditions for growth—markets, property rights, and monetary exchange are all essential to create acceptable levels of risk and low enough transactions costs to justify investment, specialization, and exchange. If you want to spend time on it, you can generate an interesting discussion on whether what matters is the particular system of property rights, or just that they be clear, certain, and enforceable with reasonable cost—the concept of the rule of law. Most students have never realized that property rights are highly varied, and many fast growing economies have nothing like U.S. absolute property rights in land, for example.
Most students can see immediately how investment in physical and human capital in the form of education and training contribute to growth. Some have more difficulty getting a clear view of the role of learning by doing and technical change, particularly the small continuous refinement and improvement to existing technology rather than the spectacular breakthroughs. Much growth probably comes from the interaction of the last two, and this source of growth can be illustrated with a discussion of why firms offer incentives to workers to suggest improvements to working methods and procedures.

47. 達成快速經濟成長的政策 16.4 達成快速的經濟成長 為了達成快速經濟成長，必須提升 每工時資本數量的成長率 人力資本的成長率
技術進步的速度

48. 16.4 達成快速的經濟成長
為了達成這些目標，政府可以採取的行動包括：
創造誘因機制
鼓勵儲蓄
鼓勵研究與發展
鼓勵國際貿易
改善教育品質

49. 16.4 達成快速的經濟成長 創造誘因機制 儲蓄、投資與創新的誘因足夠強烈時，便產生經濟成長。這些誘因必須仰賴完善的法律制度執行財產權。
鼓勵儲蓄
儲蓄資助投資，投資產生資本累積，因此儲蓄可以增進資本的成長，進而刺激經濟成長。
課稅方式可以增加儲蓄的誘因，例如針對消費課稅，而非針對所得課稅。

50. 16.4 達成快速的經濟成長
鼓勵研究與發展
政府可以直接提供公共資源來資助基礎研究，但必須具備良善的配置資源機制，確保資源配置予價值最高的研究與發展

51. 16.4 達成快速的經濟成長 鼓勵國際貿易 藉由汲取專業化與貿易的利益，自由的國際貿易可以刺激經濟成長 改善教育品質
政府可以資助基礎教育，提高語言、數學與科學等教育水準，以激發經濟成長的潛能