1. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 Unit 13: Risk Methods CSEM04: Risk and Opportunities of Systems Change in Organisations Dr Lynne Humphries & Prof. Helen M Edwards

2. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 Unit 13: Risk Methods CSEM04: Risk and Opportunities of Systems Change in Organisations Dr Lynne Humphries & Prof. Helen M Edwards

3. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 Overview The Concepts of Risk Management Methods Risk generic lifecycle Risk Methods Risk Techniques Example methods: –Riskit –SERUM –RAMESES

4. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 The Concepts of Risk Management Methods Aimed at controlling risk during a specific project. Project stakeholders should have input. Often difficult to evaluate risks quantitatively: –therefore need to cater for qualitative risk assessment. Participant communication is essential.

5. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 Risk generic lifecycle Risk methods have typical lifecycle Assumption that cycle is iterative. –Throughout a project there may be many iterations of the lifecycle.

6. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 Risk generic lifecycle In practice BEFORE project starts –First cycle completes all but last step –From “goal definition” –to “allocating budget levels” Allocating budget levels

7. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 Risk generic lifecycle Once project underway –Start continual risk monitoring –In practice this means moving round the risk cycle iteratively. –How this is managed depends on the risk management or project management method used.

8. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 Method versus Technique Risk Methods provide frameworks and procedures (or process models) to follow to help manage the control of risks in a project. Risk Techniques are small scale approaches that enable you to do some small scale task. –We have looked at some specific risk identification and analysis techniques within the module. –We will now have a brief overview of some specific risk methods.

9. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 The Riskit Method

10. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 The Riskit Method and its Life Cycle The focus in typical risk methods

11. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 Where does it fit ? Focuses on risk management during systems development. Why is it needed? –To manage risks explicitly. –To keep project focused on its goal.

12. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 Techniques in Riskit

13. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 Summary of Techniques

14. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 Goal and stakeholder driven identification A simple technique to rank the identified goals within each stakeholder. N.B. Comparison cannot be made across rows (or goals) Different stakeholders may be of different priority/importance in the project.

15. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 Risk Analysis Graph (example from the Riskit Manual)

16. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 Risk scenario ranking: Using Pareto-efficient sets

17. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 Risk element review

18. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 Riskit controlling action taxonomy.

19. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 The SERUM Method

20. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 SERUM Method

21. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 SERUM Premise: “Change is inevitable for all commercial software systems” –For any application, there will be many potential changes. Approach: tackle those changes that provide the best cost-benefit ratio. –But there is risk associated with any change. In particular technical risk and development risk,

22. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 SERUM Change Priority Priority of change is expressed as a function of five variables.  risk exposure in the current system,  risk exposure in the proposed system,  risk exposure in the implementation of a change  cost of a defined change  benefit of a defined change

23. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 Method Composition Soft Systems Methodology - Checkland –used in step 1 through to step 5

24. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 Method Composition Evolutionary Development - Gilb –used in steps 6-9 and afterwards (outcomes from steps)

25. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 provides a set of recommendations for change (organisational and/or technological). the recommendations define the gap between the current and the ideal model. may identify major changes to an existing way of working. Risk is associated with the disruption to the organisation. SSM in SERUM: B usiness analysis of the system

26. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 Evolutionary development: plan the implementation of changes Parts of a system are implemented and delivered in phases. Each part is evaluated by the client The feedback is used in implementing subsequent phases.

27. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 SERUM and systems change Users/decision makers involved in –“SSM” aspects –not in Evolutionary development aspect. But –to control project when using evolutionary approach: ask for measurable goals from developers (whether internal or external). –Should use a two way mechanism.

28. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 The RAMESES Method

29. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 Where does it fit ? Focuses on risk of systems change. Why is it needed? –Do IT systems always to live up to expectation? –Do IT systems always fit how the business operates? Systems Specification is hard. Two aspects of change: Business process and IT systems. Expected RAMESES to be used: –Before a project gets underway –After a project has happened – as part of post- implementation review.

30. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 RAMESES Framework

31. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 Components of RAMESES Data collection (auditing) System specification Analysis (comparisons, gaps) Risk assessment (gauges)

32. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 Risk Gauges RG1: Change Consensus – purpose: to assess agreement among the Senior Management team (SMT). RG2: Change Context –purpose: to assess the SMT’s perception of the context of the proposed changes. –purpose: to assess the SMT’s perception of past company experience.

33. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 RG1: Change Consensus Identified change: Implementation of new ERP system to replace packages currently used with an integrated solution Justification of need for change: Our system is out of date and difficult to maintain and We know we are not operating at best efficiency and wish to investigate further. Consensus among SMT: Strongly Agree: 2, Agree: 1, No view: 1, Disagree: 0

34. University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO Unit 13 RG2 Change Context Considers –Project Timescale –Project Scope –Nature of Project –Cost of Project