1. The International Economics of Natural Resources and Growth Thorvaldur Gylfason

2. Background Old economic geography Old economic geography Assigned key role to natural resource wealth and raw materials Assigned key role to natural resource wealth and raw materials Tended to equate those resources with economic strength Tended to equate those resources with economic strength Yet, many resource-abundant countries are poor, while several resource-poor countries are rich Yet, many resource-abundant countries are poor, while several resource-poor countries are rich President Putin of Russia: “Our country is rich, but our people are poor.” President Putin of Russia: “Our country is rich, but our people are poor.”

3. Background New economic geography New economic geography Recognizes several different sources of wealth, emphasizing human capital Recognizes several different sources of wealth, emphasizing human capital Many resource-rich countries have fared badly, while several resource- poor countries have done well Many resource-rich countries have fared badly, while several resource- poor countries have done well There are many kinds of capital and many different sources of economic growth There are many kinds of capital and many different sources of economic growth

4. Listen to Lee Kwan Yew, founding father of Singapore (1959-1991): “I thought then that wealth depended mainly on the possession of territory and natural resources, whether fertile land..., or valuable minerals, or oil and gas. It was only after I had been in office for some years that I recognized... that the decisive factors were the people, their natural abilities, education and training.” Natural resources: A mixed blessing

5. Overview Three parts Three parts 1.Contribution of natural resources to economic growth around the world Blessing or curse? 2.Empirical evidence 3.The case of Norway

6. What it takes to grow 1.Saving and investment Real capital 2.Education, health care Human capital 3.Exports and imports Foreign capital 4.Democracy and freedom Social capital 5.Stability Financial capital 6.Diversification away from Natural capital Undisputed Controversial 1

7. Abundance vs. dependence Resource poor, resource dependent (Chad, Mali) Resource rich, resource dependent (OPEC) Resource rich, resource free (Canada, USA) Resource poor, resource free (Jordan, Panama) Resource dependence Resource abundance Dependence hurts growth, even if abundance may help Hypothesis:

8. denotes a positive effect in the direction shown +

9. denotes a negative effect in the direction shown -

15. Again, six determinants of economic growth + + + Democracy Diversification ++ denotes a positive effect in the direction shown + Stability + Several other linkages among determinants

16. Empirical evidence Cross-sectional evidence based on 85 countries Cross-sectional evidence based on 85 countries Relate economic growth to its main determinants, that is, measures of different kinds of capital Relate economic growth to its main determinants, that is, measures of different kinds of capital Look for evidence of a linkage between resource dependence, resource abundance, and economic growth Look for evidence of a linkage between resource dependence, resource abundance, and economic growth 2

17. Growth and political liberties, 1965-98 Central African Republic Brazil Democracy is good for growth: No visible sign that democracy stands in the way of economic growth r = -0.62 Botswana China Niger Venezuela Korea 85 countries

18. Growth and political liberties, 1965-98 Central African Republic Brazil r = -0.62 Botswana China Niger Venezuela Korea Political liberty is good for growth because oppression breeds inefficiency, and so does corruption

19. Botswana and Nigeria: GDP per capita 1965-2004 (2000 USD) Botswana 7.3% Nenadi Usman, Nigeria’s economy minister: “Oil has made us lazy” Nigeria 0.6%

20. Growth and natural resources, 1965-98 Madagascar Mali Cameroon Mauritius r = -0.64 Natural resource dependence Natural resource dependence tends to hurt growth through rent seeking and by creating a false sense of security Botswana

21. Political liberties and natural resources Botswana r = 0.48 Natural capital tends to crowd out social capital Madagascar Venezuela India Ecuador Benin

22. Regression results on growth and resources Note: t-values shown within parentheses. 85 observations. No outliers excluded. Estimation method: Ordinary Least Squares. Growth per capita Model 1 Natural capital (% of wealth) -0.09(5.6) Natural capital per person Initial income Political liberty Investment Secondary education Population growth Adj. R 2 0.26

23. Regression results on growth and resources Growth per capita Model 1 Model 2 Natural capital (% of wealth) -0.09(5.6)-0.10(5.9) Natural capital per person 0.03(1.6) Initial income Political liberty Investment Secondary education Population growth Adj. R 2 0.260.28

24. Regression results on growth and resources Growth per capita Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Natural capital (% of wealth) -0.09(5.6)-0.10(5.9)-0.15(8.6) Natural capital per person 0.03(1.6)0.09(4.7) Initial income -1.03(5.3) Political liberty Investment Secondary education Population growth Adj. R 2 0.260.280.45

25. Regression results on growth and resources Growth per capita Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Natural capital (% of wealth) -0.09(5.6)-0.10(5.9)-0.15(8.6)-0.12(7.3) Natural capital per person 0.03(1.6)0.09(4.7)0.07(3.2) Initial income -1.03(5.3)-1.54(7.4) Political liberty -0.50(4.5) Investment Secondary education Population growth Adj. R 2 0.260.280.450.56

26. Regression results on growth and resources Growth per capita Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 Natural capital (% of wealth) -0.09(5.6)-0.10(5.9)-0.15(8.6)-0.12(7.3)-0.09(5.8) Natural capital per person 0.03(1.6)0.09(4.7)0.07(3.2)0.05(2.6) Initial income -1.03(5.3)-1.54(7.4)-1.34(6.8) Political liberty -0.50(4.5)-0.43(4.2) Investment0.10(4.2) Secondary education Population growth Adj. R 2 0.260.280.450.560.64

27. Regression results on growth and resources Growth per capita Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 Model 6 Natural capital (% of wealth) -0.09(5.6)-0.10(5.9)-0.15(8.6)-0.12(7.3)-0.09(5.8)-0.07(5.0) Natural capital per person 0.03(1.6)0.09(4.7)0.07(3.2)0.05(2.6)0.04(2.0) Initial income -1.03(5.3)-1.54(7.4)-1.34(6.8)-1.93(9.1) Political liberty -0.50(4.5)-0.43(4.2)-0.33(3.6) Investment0.10(4.2)0.07(2.8) Secondary education 0.04(4.8) Population growth Adj. R 2 0.260.280.450.560.640.71

28. Regression results on growth and resources Growth per capita Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 Model 6 Model 7 Natural capital (% of wealth) -0.09(5.6)-0.10(5.9)-0.15(8.6)-0.12(7.3)-0.09(5.8)-0.07(5.0)-0.08(5.5) Natural capital per person 0.03(1.6)0.09(4.7)0.07(3.2)0.05(2.6)0.04(2.0)0.04(2.6) Initial income -1.03(5.3)-1.54(7.4)-1.34(6.8)-1.93(9.1)-1.89(9.2) Political liberty -0.50(4.5)-0.43(4.2)-0.33(3.6)-0.28(3.2) Investment0.10(4.2)0.07(2.8)0.08(3.5) Secondary education 0.04(4.8)0.02(2.4) Population growth -0.54(2.8) Adj. R 2 0.260.280.450.560.640.710.74

29. Regression results on growth and resources Growth per capita Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 Model 6 Model 7 Natural capital (% of wealth) -0.09(5.6)-0.10(5.9)-0.15(8.6)-0.12(7.3)-0.09(5.8)-0.07(5.0)-0.08(5.5) Natural capital per person 0.03(1.6)0.09(4.7)0.07(3.2)0.05(2.6)0.04(2.0)0.04(2.6) Initial income -1.03(5.3)-1.54(7.4)-1.34(6.8)-1.93(9.1)-1.89(9.2) Political liberty -0.50(4.5)-0.43(4.2)-0.33(3.6)-0.28(3.2) Investment0.10(4.2)0.07(2.8)0.08(3.5) Secondary education 0.04(4.8)0.02(2.4) Population growth -0.54(2.8) Adj. R 2 0.260.280.450.560.640.710.74

30. In sum, natural capital tends to crowd out … 1.Real capital via blunted incentives to save and invest via blunted incentives to save and invest 2.Human capital through neglect of education through neglect of education 3.Social capital through rent seeking, civil and political oppression, corruption, etc. through rent seeking, civil and political oppression, corruption, etc. 4.Financial capital through failure to develop institutions 5.Foreign capital through protectionism

31. Natural resources: A mixed blessing Listen to King Faisal of Saudi Arabia (1964-1975): “In one generation we went from riding camels to riding Cadillacs. The way we are wasting money, I fear the next generation will be riding camels again.” “In one generation we went from riding camels to riding Cadillacs. The way we are wasting money, I fear the next generation will be riding camels again.”

32. But, Norway is different The problem is not the existence of natural wealth as such... The problem is not the existence of natural wealth as such... but rather the failure to avert the dangers that accompany the gifts of nature but rather the failure to avert the dangers that accompany the gifts of nature Norway is, so far, a success story Norway is, so far, a success story Government absorbs 80% of oil rent and invests it mostly in foreign securities Government absorbs 80% of oil rent and invests it mostly in foreign securities No signs of damage to growth potential, at least not yet No signs of damage to growth potential, at least not yet 3

33. The oil fund The purpose of the oil fund The purpose of the oil fund Share the wealth fairly: Pension fund Share the wealth fairly: Pension fund Shield domestic economy from overheating and possible waste Shield domestic economy from overheating and possible waste Fund has become huge: USD 300 billion Fund has become huge: USD 300 billion That makes USD 65K per person That makes USD 65K per person Norwegians have resisted the temptation to use too much of the money to meet current needs Norwegians have resisted the temptation to use too much of the money to meet current needs

34. Why Norway succeeded where others failed Long tradition of democracy and market economy in Norway since before the advent of oil Long tradition of democracy and market economy in Norway since before the advent of oil Large-scale rent seeking was averted as oil was defined as a common-property resource from the beginning Large-scale rent seeking was averted as oil was defined as a common-property resource from the beginning Adequate investment performance Adequate investment performance Excellent education record Excellent education record College enrolment rose from 26% of each cohort in 1980 to 80% in 2003 College enrolment rose from 26% of each cohort in 1980 to 80% in 2003

35. Even so, Norway faces challenges Even so, Norway faces challenges Some (weak) signs of Dutch disease Some (weak) signs of Dutch disease Stagnant exports, sluggish FDI Stagnant exports, sluggish FDI Limited interest in joining EU and EMU Limited interest in joining EU and EMU Some signs also of unwillingness to undertake difficult reforms Some signs also of unwillingness to undertake difficult reforms Health care provision Health care provision Management of oil fund transferred from Ministry of Finance to Central Bank 1999 Management of oil fund transferred from Ministry of Finance to Central Bank 1999 Why Norway succeeded where others failed

36. Good times demand strong discipline Natural resources bring risks Natural resources bring risks A false sense of security leads people to underrate or overlook the need for good policies and institutions, good education, and good investment A false sense of security leads people to underrate or overlook the need for good policies and institutions, good education, and good investment Awash in easy cash, they may find that hard choices perhaps can be avoided Awash in easy cash, they may find that hard choices perhaps can be avoided Awareness of these risks is perhaps the best insurance policy against them Awareness of these risks is perhaps the best insurance policy against them

37. Old story: The risks are real These slides can be viewed on my website: www.hi.is/~gylfason The End n David Landes (1998) tells the story of Spain following the colonization of South and Central America which made Spain rich in gold and other natural resources: “Easy money is bad for you. It represents short-run gain that will be paid for in immediate distortions and later regrets.”