1. Eidgenössisches Departement des Innern EDI Bundesamt für Meteorologie und Klimatologie MeteoSchweiz Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch and their significance yesterday, today and tomorrow Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Simon C. Scherrer Climate information team, Climate Services Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Workshop "Spawning the Atmosphere Measurements of Jungfraujoch“ 26 November 2008, Bern

2. 2 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop simon.scherrer@meteoswiss.ch The beginning… 1 November 1922 Beginning of meteorological observations 1 November 1922 Wednesday, 1 November 1922  observations for science, weather forecasts and aviation

3. 3 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop simon.scherrer@meteoswiss.ch Yesterday… measurement site: 1925 – 1937 photo: Fahrni

4. 4 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop simon.scherrer@meteoswiss.ch Since 1937… and today temperature THYGAN north old ANETZ hut (rot.) solar radiation, luminosity etc. ASRB, GAW, CHARM wind temperature THYGAN south parameterdevice pressurePTB220 radioactivityTechniData temperature2 THYGAN + 1 Rotronic rel. humidity2 THYGAN + 1 Rotronic sunshineSolar 111B luminosityLICOR SW  radiation CM21 LW  radiation CG4 wind (speed, direction)METEK autom. station since 1981 official SMN station since 09.10.2007  values every 10‘ NOTE: no precipitation + man. SYNOP program GAW/CHARM/ASRB MeteoSwiss SwissMetNet station SYNOP obs.

5. 5 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop simon.scherrer@meteoswiss.ch MeteoSwiss measurement networks Jungfraujoch the highest permanently manned meteorological station in Europe

6. 6 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop simon.scherrer@meteoswiss.ch Today… Climate Change http://www.metoffice.com/research/hadleycentre/CR_data/Monthly/Hadplot_globe.gif Muir Glacier, Alaska aus Trenberth 2007

7. 7 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop simon.scherrer@meteoswiss.ch From yesterday to today… Photo: Ruedi Wyss TM, MétéoSuisse

8. 8 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop simon.scherrer@meteoswiss.ch From yesterday to today… maximum temperature: homogenization amounts 1937-2006 instrumental problems in extreme environment replacement of instrument homogenization amounts [°C] seasonal dependence of older instruments site relocation and change of instrument type 1K

9. 9 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop simon.scherrer@meteoswiss.ch Today…  homog. mean temperature trend mean temperature: ~0.4 °C / 10y mean: -7.9 °C northern hemisphere land: ~0.3 °C / 10y deviation from mean [°C] 1937-2007 (since 1961) 1K

10. 10 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop simon.scherrer@meteoswiss.ch Is the high Alpine region more sensitive to climate change than the rest of Europe?  climate records: mean temperature trends  inter-annual variability  thawing days The Fauna of the Swiss Alps.

11. 11 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop simon.scherrer@meteoswiss.ch regional distribution of trends annual mean temperature 1961-2006 Jungfraujoch filled circles: significant trends (5% level)

12. 12 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop simon.scherrer@meteoswiss.ch vertical distribution of seasonal mean temperature trends 1961-2006 Appenzeller et al. (2008) Jungfraujoch grey: averaged topography filled circles: significant trends (5% level)

13. 13 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop simon.scherrer@meteoswiss.ch Is the high Alpine region more sensitive to climate change than the rest of Europe?  climate records: mean temperature trends  inter-annual variability today …  thawing days tomorrow The Fauna of the Swiss Alps.

14. 14 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop simon.scherrer@meteoswiss.ch Interannual (year-to-year) variability in Swiss Alpine winter climate Savognin 1990 Davos 1999

15. 15 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop simon.scherrer@meteoswiss.ch The European Winter patterns (dynamics) leading sea level pressure patterns (60W-40E, 30N-80N), DJF 1958-1999 North Atlantic Oscillation European Blocking Atlantic Blocking

16. 16 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop simon.scherrer@meteoswiss.ch How well can we explain the winter temperature variability at Jungfraujoch? NAO European Blocking Atlantic Blocking „Mittelland“ Alps Atlantic Blocking Säntis

17. 17 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop simon.scherrer@meteoswiss.ch “high fog” on the Swiss plateau Photo: Ruedi Wyss

18. 18 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop simon.scherrer@meteoswiss.ch Is the high Alpine region more sensitive to climate change than the rest of Europe?  climate records: mean temperature trends  inter-annual variability  thawing days tomorrow … The Fauna of the Swiss Alps.

19. 19 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop simon.scherrer@meteoswiss.ch Permafrost in Switzerland potential distribution of permafrost based on DHM25 modelling (BAFU 7/06) legend: local permafrost possiblewidespread permafrost likely source: Federal Office of environment (BAFU) full thawing days = days with T min > 0°C

20. 20 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop simon.scherrer@meteoswiss.ch Annual count of full thawing days Jungfraujoch (1960 - July 2006) logit-fitted trend: 0.55 d/yr, p-value: 0.02 full thawing days per year 2003 48

21. 21 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop simon.scherrer@meteoswiss.ch Projected changes in mean temperature Switzerland (CH2050 Project) from C. Frei (2006) change wrt 1990, Median and 95% confidence

22. 22 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop simon.scherrer@meteoswiss.ch Probability for T min > 0°C at Jungfraujoch 2050: ~40% (range: 30-60%) today: ~15 % occurence [%] altitude [m asl] 20406080100 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 x3x3

23. 23 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop simon.scherrer@meteoswiss.ch Summary  Yesterday… frontier: extreme weather and climate conditions high altitude observations for weather forecasts and aviation  Today… highest permanently manned meteorological station in Europe homog. long time series of high altitude climate for global change issues Jungfraujoch mean temperature increased by ~0.4 °C / 10y since 1961 mean temperature changes similar to lower Swiss stations but: large scale influences very different from lowland stations  Tomorrow… continuation of JUN station (JUN is part of the new SwissMetNet operated by MeteoSwiss) expected climate change impacts in Alpine region sensitive to “user group” simple estimates suggest probability of full thawing days will increase roughly by a factor 3 in 2050 (from <15% to ~40%)!

24. 24 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop simon.scherrer@meteoswiss.ch Photo: Ruedi Wyss Thanks for your attention Appenzeller, C., Zenklusen, E., Begert, M., Scherrer, S.C., 2008: Monitoring climate at Jungfraujoch in the high Swiss Alpine region. Science of the total environment. 391, 262- 268. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2007.10.005

25. 25 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop simon.scherrer@meteoswiss.ch Swiss records… JUN is the highest permanently manned meteorological station in Europe Annual mean temperature -7.9 °C : Coldest annual mean but not daily -41.6 °C Wind guest: 267.5 km/h ~ highest value but G.S. Bernard 268.2 km/h Summer record temperature (JJA mean ) 2003 Anomaly plus 4.1 °C, next 1994 with plus 2.4 °C Monthly record temperature: July 2006

26. 26 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop simon.scherrer@meteoswiss.ch °C North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) & surface temperature Appenzeller et al., 2001

27. 27 Long records of weather measurements at Jungfraujoch | scnat Jungfraujoch workshop simon.scherrer@meteoswiss.ch Overview  Yesterday …  Today …  Tomorrow …