1. Iraq Timeline

2. 1. Bush 43 WMD Argument Assumption: Iraq has WMD October 2002 NIE Pro and Con

3. 2. Spreading Democracy Falling Dominoes and Democracy Map from Freedom House (2006)Freedom House

4. 3. Unfinished Business 1998 Iraq Liberation ActIraq Liberation Act 1990/91 Gulf War When was the first Bush 43 meeting on overthrowing Saddam Hussein?

5. 4. Iraq and Al-Qaeda Relationship? Senate Select Committee on Intelligence: US Intelligence Community’s Prewar Intelligence on Iraq, July 2004 (page 32 and 304-370) US Intelligence Community’s Prewar Intelligence on Iraq Levin Report, October 2004Levin Report, Pentagon Report, August 2007Pentagon Report

6. 2002-2003 Bush 43 Makes the Case VP Cheney speech at VFW, August 2002;speech at VFW UN Security Council Res. 1441 (11/02)Res. 1441 Congressional Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq, PL 107-243, 10/16/02PL 107-243 National Security Adviser Rice, January 2003: “mushroom cloud” commentmushroom cloud Secretary of State Colin Powell’s United Nations presentation on Iraqi WMD (February 2003)Colin Powell’s United Nations presentation

7. US is Committed: Debates Questions About the War: Should we invade? What to expect if we do invade? Troop Levels needed?

8. Questions About After the War Building Democracy: Internal Issues –Will this be like Japan and Germany after WWII –Or Bosnia

9. Questions About After the War Regional Dynamics Iran Syria Al-Qaeda in Iraq

10. March 19, 2003: US Invasion April 9, 2003

11. May 1, 2003

12. But… Mission Complicated Insurgency Ex-Ba’ath and ex-military Al-Qaeda in Iraq, 2004 Kurdish Independence? Shiite militias (Iran?) –Moqtada al-Sadr

13. Iraq, Weekend of July 7, 2007 (Washington Post)

14. Political Developments? Honest Attempts to Build Government Ethnic parties Religious parties Kurds vs. Sunni Arab vs. Shi’ite Arab Shi’ite vs. Shi’ite Sunni vs. Sunni OIL

15. Positive Political Developments 7/03 Interim Governing Council 12/03 Saddam Hussein captured 6/04 New government under PM Iyad Allawi takes over 1/05 Election of Transitional National Assembly 8/05 Shiite and Kurds coalition writes constitution 10/05 Constitution approved by referendum 12/05 Legislature chosen under constitution –Council of Representatives 4/06 New government chosen by Council of Representatives

16. Public Opinion of US Around the World Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project report, “America's Image Slips, But Allies Share U.S. Concerns Over Iran, Hamas,” 6/13/06: http://pewglobal.org/reports/display.php?ReportID=252

17. Al-Qaeda after Invasion AQ in Iraq Abu Musab al-Zarqawi (killed June 2006) AQ after Iraq (Declassified April 2006 NIE)AQ after Iraq

18. US public opinion turns against the war Source: Scott Keeter, Trends in Public Opinion about the War in Iraq, 2003-2007, March 2007: http://pewresearch.org/pubs/431/trends-in- public-opinion-about-the-war-in-iraq-2003-2007 http://pewresearch.org/pubs/431/trends-in- public-opinion-about-the-war-in-iraq-2003-2007

19. Bush 43 Approval Ratings

20. Questions How could the US have been so wrong about Iraq WMD? How could the US have been so wrong about aftermath? We’re there: what do we do? –The Bush surge –Iraq Study GroupIraq Study Group –Democratic candidates: Withdrawal Plans

21. Good News? Awakening Councils (summer 2006) US Army/USMC Counterinsurgency Manual (FM 3- 24/MCWP 3-33.5)(FM 3- 24/MCWP 3-33.5) General David Petraeus

22. The Result of Strategy Shift From Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq, March 2008 DoD Report to Congress, p. 18Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq

23. Obama Policy 2/27/09 Speech Refocus on Afghanistan

25. The Bigger Battle? Pakistan Northwest Frontier Province Federally Administered Tribal Areas