1. Tourism, economic crisis and climate change: Challenges and opportunities
   
Sustainability, Climate Change and Tourism: Challenges posed by the global economic crisis
Bournemouth University, 25 November 2009
Luigi Cabrini
Director, Sustainable Development of Tourism
World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

2. Contents Global crisis and tourism Tourism in the Green Economy
The Davos Process on Climate Change and Tourism
Mitigation strategies

3. International Tourism 2009 – full year forecast
2008
Forecast 2009
World
+2%
-6% to -4%
Europe
+0.3%
-8% to -5%
Asia and the Pacific
+1%
-4% to -1%
Americas
+3%
-6% to -3%
Africa
+4%
1% to 5%
Middle East
+18%
-10% to -5%
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 3

4. Outbound: declining expenditure abroad in 2009
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 4

5. Demand picking up? +2% 2008 2009 +6% -1% -7% Easter Holiday (April)
Easter Holiday (March)
+6%
-1%
-7%
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 5

6. International Tourism 2010 forecast
2010 forecast: 1% to 3%
Change (%)
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 6 6

7. UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts: regaining confidence7

8. Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecast
World
1.6 bn
1.0 bn
922 mn
T2020V average annual growth (aag) rate projected of 4.1% a year
2006: +6.1%
2007: +6.1%
2008: +2.0%
actual aag in period has been 4.3% a year
9% 1st quarter and 4% in the 2nd
0% in April, 7% in May, 6% in June and 5% in July
534 mn
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 8

9. Tourism, economy and external shocks
7% a year between 2004 and 2007
2009: -1.1%
2010: 3.1%
: 4%
Echo of second oil crisis / Falklands and Israel-Lebanon conflicts
Gulf War / disintegration of Yugoslavia
Asian Financial Crisis
Kosovo
11S
Iraq, SARS 9

10. Crisis: time for change, time of chances
Structural underlying weaknesses and threats are more visible:
Sustainability issues
Aging stock and need to regeneration
Energy dependence
Climate change adaptation and mitigation
Competitiveness, human resources and cost structure
Low occupancy of accommodation and strong seasonality
Need for product development and diversification
Insufficient market differentiation
Need for more and more effective marketing and promotion
Cooperation and coordination 10

11. Response to the Crisis - Roadmap for recovery

12. Roadmap for recovery Resilience
Focus on job retention and sector support
Understand the market and respond rapidly
Boost partnership and ´Coopetition`
Advance innovation and technology
Strengthen regional and interregional support

13. Roadmap for recovery Stimulus
Create new jobs – particularly in SME’s
Mainstream tourism in stimulus and infrastructure programs
Review tax and visa barriers to growth
Improve tourism promotion and capitalize on major events
Include tourism in aid for trade and development support

14. Roadmap for recovery Green Economy
Develop Green Jobs and Skills Training
Respond Effectively to Climate Change
Profile Tourism & Travel in all Green Economy Strategies
Encourage Green Travel Infrastructure Investment
Promote a Green Travel Culture in Suppliers, Consumers & Communities

15. Tourism in the Green Economy

16. Forthcoming Study on Tourism for the Green
Economy Report
UNWTO/UNEP cooperative effort
It is one of the 11 economic sectors to be included in the GER
Relevant messages:
To GOVERNMENTS: where, how and under what conditions investments in sustainable tourism bring faster economic recovery, create high quality jobs and reduce poverty while also improving environmental outcomes.
To BUSINESSES: how and under what conditions such investments are at least as profitable as other investments.
To SHAREHOLDERS: how and under what conditions green investments in sustainable tourism are likely to yield more stable/secure and even higher returns.
Length and quality of tourism seasons - (e.g., 3S and ski tourism)
Operating costs - (e.g., heating-cooling, insurance premiums, snowmaking)
Based on the available scientific literature, we identified five of the most vulnerable destinations to each type of major impact

17. Structure of the Study Introduction
Challenges and opportunities for the tourism sector:
The global economic crisis and its effects on tourism
Climate change and tourism
Tourism and Poverty alleviation
Tourism and protected areas
State of Investment
Scenarios of increased investment
Financing
Enabling Conditions
Conclusions and Main Recommendations

18. ECONOMY EFFECTS OF INCREASED INVESTMENTS ON TOURISM:
Green Economy Report
INVESTMENT:
Current Status of global investment in sustainable tourism
What additional level of investment is required?
By Whom? Why?
ECONOMY EFFECTS OF INCREASED INVESTMENTS ON TOURISM:
Output
Jobs
Livelihood
Health
Poverty reduction
Environment
ENABLING CONDITIONS:
Financing for sustainable tourism
Barriers to tourism approaches and how to overcome them
Other enabling conditions (trade policy, market access, standards, etc)

19. The Davos Process on Climate Change and Tourism

20. Tourism Climate change
With its close connections to the environment and climate itself, tourism is considered to be a highly climate-sensitive sector.
Climate change is not a remote future event for tourism, as the varied impacts are becoming evident at destinations.
Changing climate patterns might alter major tourism flows.
Least developed countries and small island developing states might be particularly affected.
Impacts of climate change on the tourism sector are expected to steadily intensify.
At the same time, the tourism sector is a contributor to climate change; GHG emissions from transport and accommodation.

21. Tourism Vulnerability ‘Hotspots’
-using this we identified global tourism vulnerability hotspots where clusters of major impacts occurred in areas where tourism is an important part of the economy
Importantly – the net effect of climate change on destination regions will incorporate all of these impact types
… when we plotted the key regional vulnerabilities we began to see some ‘hotspots’
-where multiple impacts occurred
-and where tourism was an important part of the economy
… these included ___
-in some regions there is very little known about the magnitude and timing of potential impacts
-so as some of these major regional knowledge gaps begin to be filled in, this map of hotspots is expected to evolve
2nd) we also identified some key regional knowledge gaps with regard to impacts
… while there are substantial knowledge gaps in all regions,
…there are some regions where we know virtually nothing about the magnitude and timing of potential impacts
Regional
Knowledge Gaps

22. The Davos Process on Climate Change and Tourism
2007
2nd International Conference in Davos
Ministerial Summit in London
UNWTO General Assembly in Cartagena
UN Climate Change Summit Bali
2008
Seminar in Oxford
Ministerial Meeting in London
Conference in Egypt
Workshop in Colombia
UN Climate Conference in Poznan
2009
Cagliari workshop for Mediterranean
World Climate Conference-3 in Geneva
Gothenburg Symposium
UN Climate Change Summit in Copenhagen
2003
First International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism in Djerba
2015
Millennium Development Goals

23. From Davos to Bali
Adaptation and Mitigation in the Tourism sector
Low carbon travel
T&T in the Green Economy
I think its fair to say that UNWTO has played a central role in the changes to date
With UNEP and WMO initially in 2003 in Djerba and subsequently with global partners like World Economic Forum in Davos in 2007 and regionally with the European Travel Commission this month in Gothenburg.
Identifying the issues; advancing the science: engaging the stakeholders and pushing the envelope forward.
We also plug into the UN system which is clearly the emerging international default system for responding to global mega crises.
We are of course not the only ones and there is a clear leadership role in aviation from ICAO and IATA or in hospitality and cruises by their own sectoral leadership
CC Adaptation & Mitigation
CC and Tourism: Responding to Global Challenges
CC & Tourism. Djerba
Copenhagen MDG 23

24. Davos Declaration
Climate is a key tourism resource but tourism is also a contributor to climate change (5%)
Tourism is a vital economic factor and contributor to the MGD
Adopt urgent policies to encourage sustainable development: economic, social, environmental and climate change responsiveness
How to do it?
Mitigate emissions (transport and accommodation)
Adapt businesses and destinations to changing climate conditions
New technology
Help poorer regions adapting
Four major mitigation strategies … all are used within the tourism sector
The full report discusses many examples of best practice in the industry

25. Davos Declaration International Framework Partnerships
Governments
International Framework
Partnerships
Educate - Train - Monitor
Consumers
Reduce Footprint
Choose Carbon Clean
Link to Conservation
Industry/Destinations
Clean Energy
Design/Product
Tell Customers
Research/Media Nets
Intensify Research
Mainstream Education
Promote Responsible
Travel

26. UNWTO’s Message at Bali Climate Summit
Tourism community will participate in the common effort led by the United Nations.
Tourism is ready to take up its share of the burden in proportion with its contribution to climate change.
However, do not unfairly target tourism! It is an activity as respectable as others, which satisfies needs that are just as essential.
Tourism generates wealth, creates jobs and contributes to the alleviation of poverty.
Poor countries will be doubly affected if we deprive them of the economic contribution of tourism.
Four major mitigation strategies … all are used within the tourism sector
The full report discusses many examples of best practice in the industry

27. The Davos Process The Davos Process has a shared ownership
Its value resides in:
Promoting, collecting and disseminate the tourism initiatives on climate change
Ensuring cooperation and coherence
Providing added value and visibility to efforts made
Representing a wide range of public and private stakeholders
Place tourism in the “climate change map”        
Four major mitigation strategies … all are used within the tourism sector
The full report discusses many examples of best practice in the industry

28. The Davos Process
The Davos process is nurtured by a variety of initiatives :
Energy Efficiency for the Tourism Industry (EETI) project
The Caribsave partnership to address climate change impacts in the Caribbean
The Maldives project on adaptation to Climate Change
WTTC initiative  “ Leading the Challenge on Climate Change”
WEF report  “ Towards a low carbon travel and tourism sector”
ETC’s San Marino workshop and European NTO’s engagement
 International Task Force on Sustainable Tourism. The Marrakech process
The Global Sustainable Tourism Criteria  
Four major mitigation strategies … all are used within the tourism sector
The full report discusses many examples of best practice in the industry

29. Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation: Frameworks, Tools and Practices
International seminar, Oxford, United Kingdom, 7-10 April 2008
Capacity building and pragmatic adaptation and mitigation techniques and methods for developing countries and small island states
Organised and coordinated by UNEP, Oxford University (OUCE), UNWTO and WMO
Some 30 high level tourism and environment officials from developing countries and Small Island developing states participated in the Seminar.
This Report provides frameworks, tools and best practices for the tourism sector
The relevance of climate change to tourism is not in some distant future, as the impacts are already affecting decision-making of tourism operators, investors and tourists alike
Our report summarizes the state of knowledge in four main areas that represent the new realities of tourism in an era of global climate change
__read
WMO 29

30. Under negotiation with European Commission / EACI
Excellence in Energy for the Tourism Industry Accommodation sector: SME hotels
Objectives
Increase use of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Technologies (EE & RET) by SME hotels in the European Union
Strengthen hotel sector networks (e.g., National hotel associations, destination authorities, energy management agencies) for promotion of EE & RET in hotels
Build better links between users in the hotel sector and EE & RET suppliers and manufacturers
Stimulate innovation by manufacturers and suppliers of EE & RET to meet the needs of SME hotels
Sensitise National and Local Authorities on adoption of suitable supporting measures, policies and incentives to encourage use of EE & RET by SME hotels
Implemented by UNWTO in cooperation with UNEP-DTIE, International Hotel and Restaurant Association (IH&RA), European Renewable Energy Council (EREC), French Environment and Energy Management Agency (ADEME)
Under negotiation with European Commission / EACI

31. Coastal Tourism in the Mediterranean: Adapting to Climate Change (Cagliari, Italy, 8 to 10 June 2009)
Designed for decision-makers and tourism experts
Strengthen the capacities of the tourism sector players in the Mediterranean countries to fill the knowledge gap on tourism adaptation strategies
Representatives from 16 Mediterranean countries
Support the integration of climate change mitigation and adaptation measures in the national tourism development plans and strategies.
Use of planning tools in coastal zones through exercises on Scenario Planning and Strategic Planning for Sustainable Tourism Development
Field visit to southwest Sardinia:
Rehabilitation of a natural dune system
Example of the a resort that has implemented environmental management of the structure and eco-design
Rehabilitation of a lighthouse through eco-architecture

32. Travel and Tourism in the Green Economy Symposium (14 -15 September 2009, Gothenburg)
Organized by the UNWTO, ETC, UNEP and the Swedish Government.
Aimed at exploring the links between the Green Economy Initiative and the Davos Process on Climate Change and Tourism.
Discussion panels:
Tourism going climate neutral
The travel industry, innovation and new technologies
Destinations: A sustainable approach
Towards a Green Economy – NTO challenges and
opportunities
Focus on how sustainable tourism can contribute to
the transformation to the Green Economy.

33. Mitigation strategies

34. Global Tourism Emissions in 2005: CO2 Only
Sub-Sectors
CO2 (Mt)
Air transport *
522
40%
Car transport
418
32%
Other transport 39 3%
Accommodation
274
21%
Activities 52 4%
TOTAL
1,307
Total World
(IPCC 2007)
26,400
Tourism
Contribution 5%
Transportation
of Tourists = 75%
of Sector Emissions
* - does not include
non-CO2 emissions
and impact on climate

35. ‘Business as Usual’ Projection of Future CO2 Emissions from Tourism*
53%
15%
24%
43%
26%
21%
Figure shows the 2005 baseline emissions and the growth trajectory under ‘BAU’ scenario …
-projection shows emissions from tourism could more than double over next 30 years
-also shows how the proportional contribution of emissions from sub-sectors
… with air travel, accommodations, and activities growing contributions and car travel declining
4% %
* Excluding same-day visitors

36. Future CO2 Emissions from Global Tourism:
Scenarios of Mitigation Potential in 2035
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Baseline
‘Business as
Usual‘
Technical
Efficiency
Modal-
Shift/Length of
Stay
Combined
Mt CO2
-36%
-43%
-68%
Figure shows the 2005 baseline emissions and the growth trajectory under ‘BAU’ scenario … again 2.5X as large in 30 years
-three mitigation scenarios are also shown, where we change the assumptions of the ‘BAU’ scenario to show the potential for change in the tourism sector
-in the first scenario we keep projected growth the same and just improve the technical energy efficiency in all three sub-sectors transport, accom. and activities subsectors
-in the 2nd scenario we keep air travel constant with 2005 and shift future growth in tourism transport toward modes with the lowest emission factors per pkm and increase LOS, while keeping all growth in visitation
-final scenario we both improve combine the two scenarios and achieve -68%
… importantly this translates into the only scenario with absolute reduction of emissions vs 2005, which is consistent with targets discussed at the recent Vienna Climate Change Talks’
… this shows that the goal of decoupling the anticipated large growth in tourism visits from growth in CO2 emissions is quite possible, but requires more than just technical improvements in EE
The Technical Efficiency Scenario reduced CO2 emissions by 36%
Emissions in the Modal-Shift and LOS Scenario were 43% lower than BAS for 2035,
Notably, when the two scenarios were combined, CO2 emissions were reduced to 16% below the 2005 baseline and RF even by 55%.
2005*
2035*
2035 Mitigation Scenarios
* Excludes same-day tourists 36

37. Mitigation options for the Tourism Sector
Reducing energy use / Conservation:
changing transport behaviour (e.g. shift to rail and coach instead of car and aircraft, choosing closer destinations), changing management practices (e.g. videoconferencing for business tourism)
Improving energy efficiency:
use technology to carrying out the same operation with a lower energy input
Use of renewable or carbon-neutral energy:
substitute fossil fuels with energy sources that are not finite and cause lower emissions, such as biomass, hydro, wind, and solar energy
Four major mitigation strategies … all are used within the tourism sector
The full report discusses many examples of best practice in the industry

38. MITIGATION MEASURES Land Transport
- Cars contribute more than 80% emission of the land transport (but only 15%-20% for tourism purpose)
- Key emissions abatement options for car transport:
Development of more efficient vehicles.
Abatement potential up to 30% of emissions
Adoption of cleaner fuels.
Develop a very low emissions car powered by electricity, fuel cells or hydrogen
Promoting changes to consumer behaviour reduction.
Up to 15% of carbon emissions could be reduced
Source: World Economic Forum Study: Towards a Low Carbon Travel & Tourism Sector

39. MITIGATION MEASURES Air Transport
Acceleration of fleet renewal with more fuel efficient planes.
More than 11% of the current world fleet are older than 25 years.
Possible abatement potential of CO2 saving: >7%
Reduce infrastructure inefficiencies in airspace management.
Up to 12% of CO2 emissions can be reduced
R&D innovation to develop new long-term technology which could further reduce emissions
Airframe Technologies
Engine Technologies
Alternative Fuels

40. MITIGATION MEASURES Water Transport (Cruise ships)
Operation & technical measures to reduce energy use
Route optimization
Cruise ship energy efficiency improvement
Machine condition
Change of energy source to power cruise lines
Each measure has a carbon abatement potential around 7%. However this is not cumulative due to interdependencies

41. MITIGATION MEASURES Accommodation
Operational & technical measures to reduce energy use
Insulation
Building design for new buildings
Building Energy Management System
Change in room temperature
Change in energy source
Solar
Biomass / Bio-fuel
Combined heat Power
Change in consumer behaviour
Increased energy awareness:
Incentives for customers:
Zion National Park Visitor Centre
Each measure has a carbon abatement potential around 7%. However this is not cumulative due to interdependencies

42. Preparing for Copenhagen and beyond
Tourism sector (mainly its transport and accommodation subsectors) should incorporate in their operations efficient energy use and management innovations to mitigate their GHG.
Tourism companies to design mid and long term plans with meaningful targets, realistic and credible.
Tourism’s economic, social and development benefits need to be communicated and positively perceived, so as not to penalize tourism in comparison with other sectors.
Tourism stakeholders should partner rather than compete.
Four major mitigation strategies … all are used within the tourism sector
The full report discusses many examples of best practice in the industry

43. The Way Forward
Awareness raising and information for the tourism sector on the impacts of climate change.
Capacity building for adaptation at destinations.
Analyse and apply mitigation measures along the supply chain of the tourism sector.
Contribute to reach the objectives of reducing GHG emissions generated by the sector, in the framework of the collaborative action of the United Nations.
Continue the investigation on impacts, adaptation and mitigation aiming to improve the specific knowledge and develop methods to tackle the complex challenges related to climate change.
Four major mitigation strategies … all are used within the tourism sector
The full report discusses many examples of best practice in the industry

44. Common but differentiated
Stabilize by 2050
Start Now targets
Common but differentiated
2050
2020
2015
Reward Innovation
Transfer Technology
Boost Investment
Adapt / Mitigate
Technology / Finance
Conservation
2012
2009
We have seen campaigning ngo’s, academics and global leaders uniting to confront the interlocking challenges of poverty , climate and economic meltdown. And the emergence of new leadership – particularly through the G20 and the UN family to cope with the dramatic change. And map a new future.
One that adopts a coherent approach to today’s challenges : looks beyond to the evolving mega crises on the horizon – population , water & food .
And moves us painstakingly but measurably over the next 40 years to a low carbon Green Economy. Recognizing that if we get global warming fixed the other issues could be coherently fixed as well by changing consumption and production patterns
Achim Steiner has described it as building a global eco mosaic with pieces greening at different paces. But with no exceptions
Carbon Price
Tax
Incentivise
Regulate 44

45. Thank you