1. A New Era for Conservation: Safeguarding Wildlife from Global Warming Patty Glick Senior Global Warming Specialist National Wildlife Federation

2. “The Future is Not What it Used to Be”

4. Responses to Global Warming Mitigation –Addresses causes of global warming –Focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions Adaptation –Addresses impacts of global warming on people and ecosystems –Focus on coping strategies or safeguards

5. Increasing Interest in Adaptation Scientific Papers on Adaptation Source: Heller and Zavaleta, 2009 Print Media News Articles on Adaptation Source: Moser, in prep

6. Examining the State of Play Adaptation 2009 –Convened major national conference in February with leaders in policy and practice Carried out exhaustive review of adaptation literature –“A New Era for Conservation” http://ncseonline.org/WHPRP /NWF/Adaptation2009/

7. Definitions of Adaptation ─ “Traditional” adaptation ─ “Managed” adaptation “Initiatives and measures designed to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems against actual or expected climate change effects” (IPCC WGIII, 2007) Changes in an organism’s behavior, physiology, or other characteristics that enhance its survival in a new environment

8. Messaging Challenges Problems with “Adaptation” –Conflicts with prior usage in biology –Unintelligible jargon to the public –Sounds defeatist to some Alternatives include: –Safeguarding –Coping –Preparing for and Responding to... Need to link ecosystems with human benefit –Safeguarding Nature for People and Wildlife

9. (Overcoming) Barriers to Adaptation Lack of knowledge of impacts Psychological and institutional barriers Uncertainty Lack of resources Political will ― Research, workshops, info-sharing ― Adaptive management, scenario planning ― Reevaluate goals, policies, procedures ― Dedicate funding, prioritize ― Encourage leadership

10. Key Adaptation Concepts Anticipatory vs. Reactive –Preparing for change in advance –Responding to after-the-fact damage Human and Natural Systems –Addressing impacts on human communities and gray infrastructure will be extremely costly –Need to ensure impacts on wildlife and ecosystems are addressed

11. Key Adaptation Concepts Resilience and Resistance –Resilience refers to ability of a system to bounce back from disturbance and return to a functional state –Resistance refers to ability of a system to withstand disturbance without significant loss of function Facilitating Change –Accepting a new “functional state”

12. Overarching Adaptation Principles 1. Reduce other, non-climate stressors Stormwater runoff Invasive species Habitat fragmentation

13. Overarching Principles 2. Manage for ecological function and biological diversity Salmon ESUs Coral reefs Grasslands

14. Overarching Principles 3. Improve habitat connectivity to allow plant and animal species to shift ranges Natural streamflows Migration corridors

15. Overarching Principles 4. Implement proactive management and restoration strategies Cold-water spill Assisted accretion Translocation

16. Overarching Principles 5. Embrace uncertainty through increased monitoring and adaptive management Ongoing monitoring Flexibility

17. Designing Adaptation Strategies 3. Evaluate management options 4. Develop management response 5. Implement management and monitoring strategies 1. Select conservation target 2. Assess climate change impacts and vulnerability 6. Review and revise

18. Assessing Vulnerability Vulnerability = (Sensitivity + Exposure) - Adaptability Vulnerability Assessment Considerations: –Decision processes –Biological level Species, habitats, ecosystem processes –Spatial scale –Available data –Cost –Time

19. Sea-level rise is direct and certain Example: A Focus on Sea-Level Rise Important coastal habitats are at risk Coastal communities are at risk

20. Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM), Version 5.0

21. Multiple Scenarios –Accelerated sea-level rise at 25-year time steps Localized Factors (Relative Sea-Level Rise) –Rates of sedimentation, marsh accretion, tectonic processes, etc.

22. Areas We Have Modeled Winter 2009

23. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge

24. Initial Condition Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge

25. 11.2 in. by 2050 (IPCC A1B Max) Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge

26. 27.3 in. by 2100 (IPCC A1B Max) Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge

27. Initial Condition Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge

28. 11.2 in. by 2050 (No Dikes) Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge

29. 27.3 in. by 2100 (No Dikes) Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge

30. Additional Information Needs Localized geomorphology, dynamic accretion processes More detailed coastal elevation data (LiDAR) Specific impacts on species and ecosystems Interaction with additional climate and non-climate stressors

31. We Cannot Let Uncertainty Delay Action!

32. Adaptation Strategies Prioritize restoration project sites Identify sites based on ecological importance and vulnerability Expand and/or revise already existing restoration projects

33. Establish and/or preserve ecological buffers Identify potential for upland protection (e.g., marginal agricultural land) Focus restoration on “protective” habitats such as dunes and mangroves Adaptation Strategies

34. Restore diverse array of habitat types, protect ecosystem services Support principles of representation and redundancy Protect and restore habitat connectivity Adaptation Strategies

35. Move, abandon, and/or maintain shoreline infrastructure Consider tradeoffs between protected development and protected habitat Promote “soft armoring” approaches, discourage hard armoring Adaptation Strategies

36. Discourage development in coastal high hazard areas Revise local, state, and federal policies: Reduce or eliminate incentives for harmful and vulnerable development Promote incentives for sound coastal management Adaptation Strategies

37. Selectively implement “proactive” adaptation measures Assess potential for assisted accretion through use of dredged materials Support environmentally sound beach re- nourishment Adaptation Strategies

38. Selectively implement “proactive” adaptation measures Adaptation Strategies

39. Support and conduct additional research and monitoring Revise strategies as necessary Learn As You Go Adaptation Strategies

40. Nisqually NWF Comprehensive Conservation Plan

42. Questions? For more information: http://www.nwf.org/sealevelrise http://ncseonline.org/WHPRP/NWF /Adaptation2009/ glick@nwf.org (206) 285-8707, ext. 104