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UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT Student Managed Fund March 11, 2004 Undergraduate Portfolio Timothy BlaisPatrick MastanEmeka Okafor Kristen CandellaDaniel McCarthyTodd Shrier Edmund ChungPhilip OdackalTimothy Sweeney Julia Yelevich George Kruglov
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Mission To employ a systematic approach consisting of both quantitative and qualitative fundamentals to identify companies that possess strong growth potential and above average return.
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Portfolio Objectives Outperform the S&P 500 index Develop a well-diversified portfolio Invest consistently with market forecast
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Industry Selection Quantitative Analysis Qualitative Analysis Valuation Models Portfolio Monitoring Re-optimization Stop Loss/Review Analysis Stock Selection Process Portfolio Discussion Group Vote
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Value
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Performance Period Return on SMF Return on S&P Outperform (09/04/03-02/24/04)15.43%11.11%4.32% (12/08/04-02/24/04)9.53%6.81%2.72%
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Performance
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Risk Assessment (As of 12/8/03) Symbol Beta of (12/8/04) Percentage of PortfolioWeighted Average Beta ANF1.619.41%0.152 BUD-0.15.01%-0.005 CSG0.047.45%0.003 EAT0.343.81%0.013 HDI1.17.19%0.079 MO0.38.13%0.024 MSFT1.649.89%0.162 PAYX0.767.39%0.056 PFE0.3810.67%0.041 TJX0.897.40%0.066 S&P 500123.64%0.236 Portfolio Beta 0.827 *Beta as of 12/8/03 obtained from www.multexinvestor.com
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Risk Adjusted Performance (12/8/03-02/24/04) Return on Portfolio (Rp) Return on S&P (Rsp) Risk Free Rate (Rfr) (12/8/03-02/24/04) 9.53%6.81% 3.28% Excess Return (Rp-Rfr) 6.25%3.53% Risk (Weighted Average Beta) 0.8271 5-yr T-Bond Treynor Index 7.56%3.53% (12/8/03) T=[(Rp-Rfr)/B]
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Attribution Analysis Allocation Effect Selection Effect
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Sector Allocation Effect (12/8/03-2/06/04) SectorSMFS&P 500 Sector return (12/8/03- 02/6/04) Excess returns S&P Sector - **Overall S&P Sector allocation Contribution Information Technology0.21920.17750.0575-0.0112-0.0005 Consumer Discretionary0.47090.11020.0543-0.0144-0.0052 Consumer Staples0.16840.11020.05-0.0187-0.0011 Health Care0.14150.13640.0890.02030.0001 Utilities-0.0280.0565-0.01220.0003 Financials-0.20910.07860.0099-0.0021 Energy-0.05670.08980.0211-0.0012 Materials-0.02860.011-0.05770.0016 Industrials-0.10780.0667-0.0020.0002 Telecommunications Services-0.03550.13110.0624-0.0022 Total-0.0099 **S&P performance from 12/08/2004-02/06/2004 was 6.87%
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Security Selection Effect (12/08/03-02/06/04) Overall Return Difference = ***SMF Performance - **S&P 500 =.0070 or 70 Basis Points Security Selection Effect = (.0070) – (-.0099) =.01693 or 169.3 Basis Points **S&P performance from 12/08/2004-02/06/2004 was 6.87% ***SMF performance from 12/08/2004-02/06/2004 was 7.57%
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Current Holdings Company Name Current Value (As of 02/24//04) Holding Period Return (As of 02/24/04) Cadbury Schweppes$19,894.0031.87% Altria$18,499.0020.85% Pfizer$24,284.0019.82% Brinker$9,182.5019.56% Abercrombie & Fitch$23,584.0019.11% Tj Maxx$17,617.5016.55% Harley Davidson$17,537.0013.60% Anheuser-Busch$10,756.007.99% Microsoft$21,227.306.21% Fossil$20,430.902.88% Mattel$20,053.440.48% Paychex$13,660.00-12.82%
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Holdings Returns
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Forward Expectations Market Outlook –Historical Return –Value of Dollar –Inflation –GDP Risks –Credit Risk (S/T vs. L/T) –Unemployment –Budget Deficit
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Conclusion Retrospection Self-Analysis
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Thank You The Foundation The Advisory Board Faculty –Patrick Terrion, Professor Ghosh, Steering Committee
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QUESTIONS? QUESTIONS?
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