1. Defence Planning: Strategic and Financial Aspects Todor Tagarev PAP-DIB Training Course Tbilisi, Georgia, 26-28 April 2005

2. Affiliation Associate Professor and Chair, Defence and Force Management Department, “Rakovski” Defence and Staff College, Sofia Program Director, Centre for National Security and Defence Research, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences Managing Editor, Information & Security: An International Journal, http://infosec.procon.bghttp://infosec.procon.bg E-mail: –tagarev@gmail.comtagarev@gmail.com –infosec@procon.bginfosec@procon.bg

3. Outline Capabilities-based planning –Capability model (D-O-T-M-L-P-F-I) –Assessing affordability –Balancing needs and resource constraints – risk perceptions Program-based force development Leadership and managerial challenges to the effective democratic control

5. Main factors in a capability model 1.Organization/structure; authorized personnel strength; Characteristics of the weapon systems 2.Level of manning 3.Condition of the weapon systems and the equipment 4.Stocks (POL, spares, etc.) 5.Training level 6.С2 7.Leadership 8.Morale

7. One mechanized battalion Type of spending3 mln Euro Personnel, incl. food, etc.2 160 Qualification of personnel- Maintenance (electricity, water, heating, communications, etc) 120 Maintenance of facilities (barracks, HQ, training, etc.) - Maintenance of WS and equipment220 Combat training (individual, unit)500 (Long-term) investments-

8. One mechanized battalion Type of spending5 mln Euro Personnel, incl. food, etc.2 160 Qualification of personnel200 Maintenance (electricity, water, heating, communications, etc) 120 Maintenance of facilities (barracks, HQ, training, etc.) 200 Maintenance of WS and equipment220 Combat training (individual, unit)500 (Long-term) investments1600

9. Two mechanized battalions Type of spending5 M Euro Personnel, incl. food, etc.4 320100% Qualification of personnel--0% Maintenance (electricity, water, heating, communications, etc) 21087% Maintenance of facilities (barracks, HQ, training, etc.) --0% Maintenance of WS and equipment17038% Combat training (individual, unit)30030% (Long-term) investments--0%

10. Relative estimates Doctrine, weapon systems’ characteristics, level of interoperability Support for a particular policy Balancing requirements and resources (affordability)

11. On costing a force structure Planning for results Categories of expenditures –Personnel –Sustainment –Combat training –Investments –R&D

12. Balancing needs and resource constraints Definition of planning risk Example Portfolio of capabilities

13. Methodology Definition of required operational capabilities Program-based resource management -> goal–oriented resource planning, review and accounting Technology insertion in support of a security and defence (and economic and R&D) policy Efficient process; Complete cycle

15. Programming Program-based force development = Program-based defense resource management Programming: –Relates results to spending –Relates long-term plans to budget

16. Programming (2) Comprehensive No duplication Good costing Generation and assessment of alternatives Straightforward translation into budgets Basis for accountability On the programming structure

17. Additional bibliography Todor Tagarev, "Bulgaria: Integrated Defence Resource Management," in Security-Sector Reform and Transparency Building. Needs and Options for Ukraine and Moldova, Harmonie Papers 17 (Groningen, The Netherlands: Centre for European Security Studies, 2004), pp. 39-47. ---, “A Means of Comparing Military Budgeting Processes in South East Europe,” Information & Security 11 (2003): 95-135,.

18. For effective democratic control Efficient, coherent managerial processes Performance measurement No boundaries or demarcation lines Educated and dedicated people Political will Patrick Mileham, “Civilized Warriors? Professional Disciplines, Ethos, and European Armed Forces,” Connections: The Quarterly Journal 3,1 (2004): 75-94, Available at www.pfpconsortium.org www.pfpconsortium.org