2. Two Theories about Congress In Congress, Pork Stays on Menu (Washington Post headline) In Congress, Pork Stays on Menu (Washington Post headline) Can Congress pass legislation that is in the public interest? Can Congress pass legislation that is in the public interest?  Fiorina– purposive theories  Bessette- serious lawmakers

3. What skills or attributes do we want in a President?

4. The Impossible Presidency? We want presidents who are We want presidents who are  Powerful, but we place limits on power  Kind and caring/ruthless and cunning  Common person/ Hero or visionary  Above politics/master politician  Unify nation/make tough decisions  Have vision thing/responsive to will of people

5. President- Great Expectations Economy Economy World peace World peace Education Education Environment Environment Health care Health care Morality Morality Heating oil prices Heating oil prices Vision thing Vision thing

6. Many Roles for President Chief of State Chief of State Manager of the Economy Manager of the Economy Chief Executive Chief Executive Commander-in-Chief Commander-in-Chief Chief Diplomat Chief Diplomat Chief Legislator Chief Legislator Chief of the Party Chief of the Party World Leader World Leader

7. Presidential Power Empirical Question Empirical Question  How powerful is the president? Normative Question Normative Question  How powerful should the president be?

8. Methods of Presidential Candidate Selection Caucus System (1789 -1830’s) Caucus System (1789 -1830’s) National Convention (since 1830’s) National Convention (since 1830’s) Primary Elections (Present) Primary Elections (Present)  Frontloading

9. Implications of Primaries Weakens gatekeeper role for parties (Buchanan, Forbes, Jerry Brown, Jesse Jackson) Weakens gatekeeper role for parties (Buchanan, Forbes, Jerry Brown, Jesse Jackson) Gives power to ideological activists Gives power to ideological activists Different type of candidate running (McCain) Different type of candidate running (McCain) Diminish electability (Gays in military, Private school in SC) Diminish electability (Gays in military, Private school in SC) Hurt governability (read my lips) Hurt governability (read my lips) popular mandate from people, not Party popular mandate from people, not Party  New Democrat, compassionate conservative

10. National Elections Electoral College Electoral College  Election strategy  Partisan Lock  Disenfranchisement  False mandates  Clinton in 1992 43% of vote, 68.8% of EC  Chance of a Misfire?

12. 1968

13. 1972

14. 1976

15. 1980

16. 1988

17. 1992

18. 1996

19. 2000 Battleground States

20. Presidential Elections Long Long Expensive Expensive Discourages good candidates? Discourages good candidates? Potential source of Power? Potential source of Power? Predictions for 2000 Predictions for 2000

21. Constitutional Basics Normative ?-- Hamilton, Fed No. 70. Engergy in the Executive Normative ?-- Hamilton, Fed No. 70. Engergy in the Executive  one person office  elected for a fixed term  national constituency  Vague formal powers from Constitution

22. Evolution of the Presidency 1800-1933 Period of Congressional Supremacy 1800-1933 Period of Congressional Supremacy  Main federal policies were very individualized or particularistic  E.g. -roads or canals, tariffs for particular industries President is chief clerk President is chief clerk

23. The Modern Presidency Great Depression, 38% unemployment Great Depression, 38% unemployment More interventionist role for government More interventionist role for government Entitlement programs like SS, farm supports, right to organize create Entitlement programs like SS, farm supports, right to organize create  Political constituency for Pres power  Organizational basis for Pres power Media=Direct link betw Pres and people Media=Direct link betw Pres and people

24. Hallmarks of the Modern Presidency Increased Popular Linkage with Public Increased Popular Linkage with Public  Going Public  Presidential Selection Increased institutional powers Increased institutional powers  Creation of Institutional Presidency  War-making

25. Presidential Approval Going Public Strategy Going Public Strategy Gallup Poll since 1948 Gallup Poll since 1948  “Do you approve or disapprove of the way ___ is handling his job as president” Why the Framers would be horrified Why the Framers would be horrified

26. Public Approval of President Honeymoon Honeymoon General decline General decline Economy Economy Rally events and scandals Rally events and scandals Beyond Presidential Control Beyond Presidential Control

27. Does Popularity  Success? Eisenhower and Bush– popular presidents Eisenhower and Bush– popular presidents Nixon and Ford– unpopular presidents Nixon and Ford– unpopular presidents Clinton’s uneven record Clinton’s uneven record Truman, “A man who is influenced by the polls or is afraid to make decision which may make him unpopular is not a man to represent the welfare of the country” Truman, “A man who is influenced by the polls or is afraid to make decision which may make him unpopular is not a man to represent the welfare of the country”

28. Institutional Presidency Jefferson in 1900 had 2 assistants Jefferson in 1900 had 2 assistants Brownlow Committee Brownlow Committee  “The president needs help” President not Congress should be in charge of executive branch President not Congress should be in charge of executive branch

29. Implications of Instit. Pres Radical change in system of government? Radical change in system of government? Increased presidential control of policy making and centralization of the decision making Increased presidential control of policy making and centralization of the decision making Increases potential for screw ups Increases potential for screw ups  Iran Contra Reduced accountability Reduced accountability

30. Ranking Post WW II Presidents Good/Great Good/Great  Truman  Eisenhower  JFK –LBJ –Reagan –Clinton Bad/Failures  Nixon  Ford  Carter  Bush

31. World’s Greatest Clerkship Neustadt, 1960 Presidential Power Neustadt, 1960 Presidential Power  power of president do not flow from literary reading of constitution  "The conditions that promote his leadership in form, preclude a guarantee of leadership in fact."  “presidential power is power to persuade”

32. Informal Powers Professional reputation Professional reputation Electoral results Electoral results Bargaining Bargaining  Carrot and the stick Marshalling public opinion (going public) Marshalling public opinion (going public)

33. Presidential War-making Madison-- the power to declare war is fully and exclusively vested in the legislature Madison-- the power to declare war is fully and exclusively vested in the legislature  Congress- declare war  Pres C-in C Two Presidencies Thesis Two Presidencies Thesis War Powers Resolution War Powers Resolution

34. Presidential Power- 2 views It is not only the president’s "right, but his duty to do anything that the needs of the nation demanded unless such action was forbidden by the Congress." T. Roosevelt It is not only the president’s "right, but his duty to do anything that the needs of the nation demanded unless such action was forbidden by the Congress." T. Roosevelt "The President [may] assume just about as much power as he is capable of handling." JFK "The President [may] assume just about as much power as he is capable of handling." JFK The president can exercise no power which cannot be fairly and reasonably traced to some specific grant of power.. either in the federal constitution or in an act of Congress. There is no undefined residuum of power which he can exercise because it seems to him to be in the public interest. William Taft 1916. The president can exercise no power which cannot be fairly and reasonably traced to some specific grant of power.. either in the federal constitution or in an act of Congress. There is no undefined residuum of power which he can exercise because it seems to him to be in the public interest. William Taft 1916.

35. Normative Question FDR, JFK, Savior model- 1950s and 60s FDR, JFK, Savior model- 1950s and 60s LBJ, Nixon Satan model, or Imperial Presidency LBJ, Nixon Satan model, or Imperial Presidency Ford, Carter Sampson model Ford, Carter Sampson model Reagan– partisan presidency Reagan– partisan presidency  Neustadt vs. Miroff

36. Barber on Presidential Character Voters should ask 2 questions 1. How much energy does the president invest in his presidency 2. Relatively speaking, does he seem to experience his political life as happy or sad

37. PositiveNegative ActiveJefferson, FDR, JFK, Truman, Ford, Bush Carter, Clinton Adams, Wilson, Hoover, LBJ, Nixon PassiveMadison, Taft, Harding, Reagan Washington Coolidge, Eisenhower

38. Limits of Barber’s theory No basis in psychology or Personality theory No basis in psychology or Personality theory Easy to apply? Aren’t all candidates energetic? Easy to apply? Aren’t all candidates energetic? Healthy political personality is no predictor of political success Healthy political personality is no predictor of political success Book of the Week Book of the Week  David Maraniss; First in His Class