1. M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet et alii 26/02/2010 Individual Dynamics of Poverty, a study tackling changes in poverty in France via the SILC survey

2. Page 2 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, 25-26 february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, Plan › The Survey The Survey › The Concepts and Methods used in the Study The Concepts and Methods used in the Study › The Main Results The Main Results

3. Page 3 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, 25-26 february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Survey (1/6) › The SILC Survey › Aim : follow the incomes, the living conditions, the standards of living, and poverty through the years › Successor of the european panel › Started in 2003 (2004 in France) › Initially launched on the basis of an agreement in 6 Member States and then extended to the whole EU + Iceland, Switzerland, Norway, Turkey › Legal act and framework regulation : defining the technical aspects destined to harmonize the collection of data and the target concepts › Comparison of international data

4. Page 4 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, 25-26 february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Survey (2/6) › Framework Regulation › Primary module (fixed) and secondary module (variable) › A recommended structure suitable for meeting the combined cross- sectional and longitudinal requirements (4-sub-sample-pattern) › Minimum effective sample sizes (cross-sectionnal and longitudinal) › Average interview time : one hour, not more › Deadlines in terms of production : availability and reports on quality

5. Page 5 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, 25-26 february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Survey (3/6) › The French Version (SRCV 2004 – 2007) › Specific pattern : cross-sectional and longitundinal data linked, 9 sub- samples (instead of 4 recommended) › Compulsory for the first 4 years, facultative then › Target population : « ménages ordinaires » = people living in private households that are not part of institutions or community centers › The data collected in 2004 refers to incomes received in 2003 … › The survey is part of the french statistics system for measuring incomes and living conditions

6. Page 6 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, 25-26 february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Survey (4/6) › The Sample Longitudinal

7. Page 7 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, 25-26 february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Survey (5/6) › Two Dimensions : a Single Survey but Two Types of Interviews › The aim of the ‘panel – questionnaire’ is to collect the same kind of data as the initial questionnaire › Benefits : –Saving time interview –Better quality for the follow-up of individuals –The evolutions as regards collected amounts of incomes are controlled

8. Page 8 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, 25-26 february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Survey (6/6) › The Follow-up of Individuals › Tracing rules applying to individuals (moving, death, ‘split’ household) › Individuals who do not belong to the target population anymore (eg. moved outside the country) are dropped from the survey › Development of the loyalty (presents, New Year card, etc)  high response rate › Statistical Processing › The validity of income variables and their variations is verified compared to the previous value, the coherence is checked within the dataset… Imputations in case of missing values

9. Page 9 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, 25-26 february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Concepts and Methods used in the Study (1/4) › The Aim of the Study › Understanding the factors that determine the transitions between poverty and non-poverty or the persistence of poverty ; measuring the influence of these factors › To do so : study of the individuals dynamics through the years and the sociodemographic characteristics implying changes as regards poverty

10. Page 10 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, 25-26 february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Concepts and Methods used in the Study (2/4) › The Concepts › Poverty line, based on the income distribution › The ‘present – present’ population › Methods › Acceptable changes (= as real changes) : variation superior to 10% under (to become poor) or above (to come out of the state of poverty) the poverty line › Breakdown of the disposable income in 4 groups › What does ‘becoming poor’, ‘coming out of the state of poverty’ or ‘remaining poor’ mean ?

11. Page 11 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, 25-26 february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Concepts and Methods used in the Study (3/4)

12. Page 12 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, 25-26 february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Concepts and Methods used in the Study (4/4) › What kind of Models ? Models for ‘individuals’ › To become poor › To come out of the state of poverty Modèles au niveau « ménages » › To remain poor › Global model

13. Page 13 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, 25-26 february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Main Results (1/8) General Results › Between 2003 and 2006, 22% of the individuals have been poor at least a year › The year-to-year transitions are comparable between 2003 and 2006

14. Page 14 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, 25-26 february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Main Results (2/8) › Transitions Statistics

15. Page 15 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, 25-26 february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Main Results (3/8) › Direct Link between the Evolution of Incomes and Transitions › The ‘newcomers’ to the state of poverty : the income related to their activity has severely decreased (40 % on average between the reference year and 2006) – the part of state helps (housing or other helps) in the disposable income increases › People coming out of their state of poverty : clear rise of the income related to their activity

16. Page 16 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, 25-26 february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Main Results (4/8) › Modelising Multiple factors › Family events have an important impact on the probability to become poor › Being employed can prevent from becoming poor : once a person as slipped below the poverty line, being unemployed decreases their chances to rise above the poverty line

17. Page 17 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, 25-26 february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Main Results (5/8) › A partner being idle is a factor contributing to the persistence of poverty › The local economy has an influence on the transitions

18. Page 18 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, 25-26 february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Main Results (6/8)

19. Page 19 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, 25-26 february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Main Results (7/8) › Le modèle global

20. Page 20 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, 25-26 february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, The Main Results (8/8) › Limits of the Study › Building econometrics using the panel aspects  neutralize the unobservable individual effects › Attrition : the poor is a population liable to move rather frequently

21. Page 21 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, 25-26 february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, Publicity … ! The paper is to be released in a forthcoming publication concerning incomes

22. Page 22 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, 25-26 february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, Thank you for your attention !!

23. Page 23 M. Fall, JP. Lorgnet, et alii Vienna, 25-26 february 2010 Conference on Indicators and Survey Methodology, I’m not gone yet Any questions ?