1. September 16, 2008 From the Paved State Back to the Garden State Mobility without Highways for New Jersey Alain L. Kornhauser Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering Director, Transportation Research Program Princeton University Presented at PodCar Conference, Ithica, NY

2. September 16, 2008 Background I’ve been dabbling in PRT for over 35 years In many ways, I’m very disappointed in our lack of progress: –A long time ago: Exec. Director of APTA said: “Alain: PRT is the transportation system of the future… And Always will be!!!” But we have made progress: –Morgantown has proven that it can be done –APMs are a standard of every modern airport –Automation and computer controls have become ubiquitous, reliable and cheap –There is broad movement towards energy independence and alternatives to the petroleum economy

3. September 16, 2008 So… Premise: –NJ in 2008 is very different from NJ in 1908 A look at what might be NJ’s Mobility in 2108 (or before)

4. September 16, 2008 Looking Back In the beginning, it takes a while let’s look at the automobile: Daimler, 1888

5. September 16, 2008 Central Ave. Caldwell NJ c. 1908

6. September 16, 2008

7. Bloomfield Ave. & Academy Rd. c. 1908 Before it was paved

8. September 16, 2008 Muddy Bloomfield Ave. c. 1908

9. September 16, 2008 Muddy Main St. (Rt. 38) Locke, NY. c. 1907

10. September 16, 2008 Automobile Congestion 1968 - present Finally:

11. September 16, 2008 Starting to Look Forward Daimler, 1888 Morgantown, 1973

12. September 16, 2008 So… 1888 1973 1908 1988 2073

13. September 16, 2008 http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/PRT_Of467F07/PRT_NJ_Orf467F07_FinalReport.pdf

14. September 16, 2008 PRT as the Dominant Mode. What would it take? Had my undergrad Transportation Systems Analysis class (Orf 467) looking at this for each of the past 3 years Def. “Dominant Mode”: Serve >90% of all intra NJ trips + access to existing mass transit serving NYC and Phila Def. “Serve”: Less than 5 minute walk to a station; stations all interconnected; all existing rail mass transit connected/

15. September 16, 2008 Sketch Planning Process Precisely geolocate all trip ends by purpose Extensive use Google Earth and Msft. Virtual Earth to provide spatial reality perspective to trip end concentrations and Physical constraints Manually locate all stations and interconnection Analytically assign the trip end demand to stations and flow the trips on the interconnected network. Manually iterate the location of stations and interconnection

16. September 16, 2008 Basic NJ Transport Stats ElementValue Population (2006 est.)8.725 million Growth rate3.7% (6.4% nw) Population density1,134.5 ppsm (highest in US) 190ppsm (Salem) – 12,800pps (Hudson) Persons < 5 years old 6% Persons 5-1718% Persons 18-6463% Persons 65 and over13% Total Person trips per day29.46M 2007 $ Spent on Personal Mobility by NJ Citizens (mostly on Automobile) $24B Source of Electricity GenerationNuclear: 45%; Natural Gas: 41%; Renewables: < 0.2%

17. September 16, 2008 Briefly on Energy http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec1_3.pdf

18. September 16, 2008 OPEC Cuts World Petroleum Demand Forecast, Nov 17,2008 EIA World oil Demand, Nov 12, 2008: 85.89 Mbpd

19. September 16, 2008 Glouchester County

20. September 16, 2008 Essex County

21. September 16, 2008 Middlesex County

22. September 16, 2008 Morris County

23. September 16, 2008 Passaic County

24. September 16, 2008 Sussex County

25. September 16, 2008 Union County

26. September 16, 2008 Warren County

27. September 16, 2008 Number of Stations by County & Main Trip End CountyTranspSchoolHomeRecreOfficeIndustryPublicShopReligiousMultiUseOtherTOTAL Atlantic - 17 - 1 18 114 8 - 3 30 - 191 Bergen 28 217 394 47 81 37 15 32 17 249 - 1,117 Burlington 1 69 24 52 188 76 40 54 2 85 6 597 Cape May 11 30 173 46 17 217 38 18 47 351 28 976 Cumberland 2 37 106 7 68 86 24 27 2 78 - 437 Essex 18 30 102 237 9 9 15 92 - 83 - 595 Gloucester 2 103 192 9 20 9 3 13 6 55 - 412 Hudson 7 37 58 154 12 15 7 113 - 64 - 467 Hunterdon 2 39 107 26 21 34 25 44 9 78 20 405 Mercer 5 85 43 18 89 22 21 28 7 89 6 413 Middlesex 11 15 224 16 15 88 - 2 - 70 3 444 Monmouth 31 25 75 27 62 6 8 10 19 66 6 335 Morris 14 125 408 55 50 12 16 20 127 15 858 Ocean 11 105 55 60 76 69 52 56 - 42 14 540 Passaic 38 152 285 110 104 65 38 57 71 262 3 1,185 Salem 4 26 45 5 73 27 13 24 1 67 - 285 Somerset 7 39 330 19 31 10 2 23 6 94 7 568 Sussex 3 56 74 68 51 41 16 38 4 37 21 409 Union 16 48 99 112 91 26 45 57 - 83 - 577 Warren 11 42 217 45 55 32 28 20 1 22 11 484 TOALS 222 1,297 3,011 1,114 1,131 995 414 724 215 2,032 140 11,295

28. September 16, 2008 CountyStationsMilesCountyStationsMiles Atlantic191526Middlesex444679 Bergen1,117878Monmouth335565 Burlington597488Morris858694 Camden482355Ocean5401,166 Cape May976497Passaic11851,360 Cumberland4371,009Salem285772 Essex595295Somerset568433 Gloucester412435Sussex409764 Hudson467122Union577254 Hunterdon405483Warren484437 Mercer413403Total11,29512,261

29. September 16, 2008 Bottom Line ElementValue PRT Trips per day (90%)26.51M Peak hour trips (15%)3.98M Fleet size530K Fleet Cost $B$53B @ $100K/vehicle Stations11,295 Station Cost$28B @ $2M/Station Guideway12,265 miles Guideway Cost$61B @ $5M/mile Total Capital Cost$143B

30. September 16, 2008 Conclusions It’s a lot It does a lot It’s one design focused on existing land use / mobility patterns We should be able to do better Thank you alaink@princeton.edu www.princeton.edu/~alaink