2. CHANGES IN CERRADO LAND USE Carlos A Klink University of Brasilia, Brazil

3. RR AP AM PA AC RO MT TO MA CE RN PB PE AL SE PI BA GO DF MG ES RJ SP MS PR SC RS Atlantic Forest Caatinga AmazoniaAmazonia Pantanal Grassland BiomesBiomes CerradoCerrado

4. CERRADO SAVANNAS: 2,000,000 Km2 ( 25% of contiguous USA) 10,000 Plant Species One of the World’s 25 “hotspots”

5. RAINFALL SEASONALITY FIRE SUBSTRATE HUMAN ACTION Most biomass is underground DETERMINANTS CERRADO IS A TROPICAL SAVANNA

7. LANDSAT IMAGE OF BRASILIA AND NATIONAL PARK

9. Planted Pastures Cash Crops Bare Soil

10. Cerrado Savanna Amazon Forest CONSEQUENCES: RATE OF CHANGE

11. Woody SavannaNatural Grassland ET: 2.8-4.8 mm/d 8m ET: 1.2-1.8 mm/d 4m PAW WET: 721 mm DRY: 229 mm 70% of total water used in DRY season comes from below 2 m WET: 402 mm DRY: 71 mm MODELLING Planted Pastures: 10% reduction PP 9% reduction ET Dry spells during growth season 50% of total water used in DRY ALTERATION OF WATER CYCLE

12. Planted Pastures African grasses Pasture Degradation New Planted Pastures FIRE Biological Invasion African Grasses modify water cycle, fire regime & reduce biodiversity Carbon Imbalances Large C Stock & Sink Becomes Source when Degraded ECOLOGICAL FEEDBACKS

13. ECONOMICAL FEEDBACK REGIONAL SCALE

14. ECONOMICAL FEEDBACK GLOBAL SCALE “AGRONEGÓCIOS: O BRASIL QUE ASSUSTA BUSH” ( Primeira Leitura, April/2002) Production Costs (US$/ha)

15. NEW ECOSYSTEMS (“Emerging Ecosystems”) that have been formed brought both positive (economical) and negative (environmental) effects; KNOWLEDGE: Economical benefits are well documented, while Environmental impacts are poorly understood; THIS IMBALANCE POSES GREAT DIFFICULTIES TO INFLUENCE LAND- USE & CONSERVATION POLICIES BACK TO THE FUTURE