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Page 1 ARIES Project Meeting, L. M. Waganer, 3-4 March 2008 Restructuring System Cost Accounts and Algorithms L. Waganer 3-4 March 2008 ARIES Project Meeting at UCSD
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Page 2 ARIES Project Meeting, L. M. Waganer, 3-4 March 2008 Results Reported at Dec 07 Meeting Presented new cost account structure that was adopted by team Reported that the ARIES Material Cost Database had been updated to include installed costs for first wall, blanket, shielding, primary structure, vacuum vessel, and cryostat subsystemsMaterial Cost Database Reported that the ARIES Cost Accounts have been documented through accounts shown below: Accounts 20, Land and Land Rights Accounts 21, Structures and Site Facilities Partially Acct 22, Power Core Plant Equipment Acct 22.01, Fusion Energy Capture and Conversion (FWB, shielding ) Acct 22.02, Plasma Confinement (Being developed by Bromberg/Kessel) Acct 22.03, Plasma Formation and Sustainment (in work) Acct 22.04, Vacuum, Power Core (in work) Acct 22.05 Primary Structure and Support, Power Core (C.Post, B. Cyl, VV, Cryost, etc) Acct 22.06 – 13 Power Supplies, Main HT&T, Cryo, Rad Matls, Fuel Handl, Maint, I&C, and Other Plant Equipment (yet to be done)
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Page 3 ARIES Project Meeting, L. M. Waganer, 3-4 March 2008 Validating/Updating Costs Difficult 1.Prior ARIES cost documentation is sketchy, at best (reported in ARIES II-IV Sys Studies chapter and one SSPS chapter) 2.Account 22 never documented in entirety Totals reported, but some sub-accounts never shown, eg, cyro cooling, rad waste, fuel handling, maintenance, and I&C, amounting to $103M in ARIES-AT A-II-IV Sys Studies Chapter defined algorithms (92$) for: - 22.3 Aux cooling (1.1x10 -3 x P th ), should be waste heat - 22.4 Radioactive waste treatment(1,96x10 -3 x P th ), should be waste mass - 22.5 Fueling handling and storage(∑ of unit prices, g/d, m 3 /h, constants) ? - 22.6 Other reactor plant equipment(1.78x10 -3 x P th ) TBD - 22.7 Instrumentation and control $38.29 M TBD 3.FWBS and coil accounts used material databases (recommended) 4.Many other accounts used performance parameters to estimate costs (heating/CD, vacuum, primary structure, power supplies, impurity control, main heat transfer and transport), some may be appropriate
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Page 4 ARIES Project Meeting, L. M. Waganer, 3-4 March 2008 Validating/Updating Costs Difficult 1.L. Bromberg and C. Kessel working on coil subsystems 2.TK Mau and I have started working on Heating and CD accounts 3.In prior ARIES estimates, Vacuum Vessel seemed to be lumped with Vacuum System in “Reactor Vacuum Systems (unless integral elsewhere)” Algorithm was 0.024xM vac +4.09x kg/d (of gases pumped?) Ref: M vac for Titan-I Current ASC code computes VV volume and uses Material Table costs (for new Acct 22.05.03) but no cost computed for Vacuum, Power Core ( New Acct 22.04) In ARIES-AT, Boeing developed a detailed design and provided a detailed Vacuum Vessel cost estimate that did not appear to be used or documented in AT Cost Summary. This is being used as the VV cost basis in the Material database. Unit Costs 2000$ 2008$ Spool Assembly$30/kg$36.90/kg Removable Doors$44/kg$54.12/kg Door Frame$76/kg$93.48/kg Port Enclosure$30/kg$36.90/kg Composite Rate$35/kg$43.05.kg Refer to Update of ARIES-AT Vacuum Vessel Design presentation of June 2000 to confirm design and cost basis
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Page 5 ARIES Project Meeting, L. M. Waganer, 3-4 March 2008 Validating/Updating Costs Difficult 1.Divertor seems to be under “Impurity Control” (= 0.73 x A div ), but not related to materials, design definition, or fabrication approach Current systems code still uses this algorithm, but can adopt the materials algorithm 2.Primary structure should be estimated with material volume 3.Remaining accounts remain to be evaluated.
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Page 6 ARIES Project Meeting, L. M. Waganer, 3-4 March 2008 Historical Data on Some Systems Starfire used its shield as a vacuum vessel, hence no cost reported. ARIES has traditionally not identified the cost of the vessel but loaded it into a general category, which ranged from $73M to $227M (2008$). Boeing estimated AT vessel to be $48M. ITER had its vessel as $390M (first of a kind) and very large. Vacuum equipment not easily separable from ARIES. Starfire had its at $12M. ITER’s vacuum equipment is $44M. Most ARIES divertors are in the $10M-$20M range. ITER’s is $139M With the assumption that the cost of the divertor is similar to the unit cost of the first wall blanket and proportional their respective areas, then RS divertor is 15% of FWB (~$15M) and AT is 34% of FWB (~$31M). Don’t have ITER areas but percentage is 53%.
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Page 7 ARIES Project Meeting, L. M. Waganer, 3-4 March 2008 Comparison of ITER to ARIES-AT These are comparisons of the direct capital equipment costs. ITER is first of a kind and not competitively bid. Also these ITER costs are based on the available data as of Snowmass 2002. I had the ARIES structures algorithms but did not have the related parameters to generate individual costs and these were not documented..
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Page 8 ARIES Project Meeting, L. M. Waganer, 3-4 March 2008 Comparison of ITER to ARIES-AT Ratio of ITER to AT 4 4.6 2.8, dissimilar matls Big difference All coils in AT, Big ∆ ITER uses TF Coils ITER Sys only ITER Vessel only Big ∆
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Page 9 ARIES Project Meeting, L. M. Waganer, 3-4 March 2008 Comparison of ITER to ARIES-AT These are comparisons of the direct capital equipment costs. ITER is first of a kind and not competitively bid. Also these ITER costs are based on the available data as of Snowmass 2002. I believe the ARIES-AT costs are reasonably comparable. ITER Low Temp AT data not avail “ ITER Heat Rejection “ ITER Site El Pwr
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Page 10 ARIES Project Meeting, L. M. Waganer, 3-4 March 2008 Cost Account Managers No. AccountCAM 20Land and Land RightsWaganer 21Structures and Site FacilitiesWaganer 22Power Core Plant Equipment 22.01 Fusion Energy Capture and Conversion 22.01.01 First Wall and BlanketMalang 22.01.02 Second BlanketMalang 22.01.03 Divertor AssyRaffray 22.01.04 High Temperature ShieldingEl-Guebaly 22.01.05 Low Temperature ShieldingEl-Guebaly 22.01.06 Penetration ShieldingEl-Guebaly 22.02 Plasma Confinement 22.02.01 Toroidal Field CoilsBromberg 22.02.02 Poloidal Field CoilsBromberg 22.02.03 Feedback CoilsKessel 22.03 Plasma Formation and SustainmentMau 22.04 Vacuum, Plasma Core (equipment)Najmabadi 22.05 Primary Structure and SupportWang 22.06 Power Supplies, Switching and Energy StorageCadwallader 22.07 Main Heat Transfer and TransportRaffray 22.08 Cryogenic Cooling, MagnetsBromberg 22.09 Radioactive Materials Treatment and ManagementEl-Guebaly 22.10 Fuel Handling and StorageSteiner 22.11 Maintenance EquipmentWaganer 22.12 Instrumentation and ControlWeaver 22.13 Other Plant EquipmentWaganer 23Turbine Plant EquipmentSchultz 24Electric Plant EquipmentSchultz 25Miscellaneous Plant Equipment Waganer 26Special MaterialsWaganer
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Page 11 ARIES Project Meeting, L. M. Waganer, 3-4 March 2008 Next Actions –yet to be done Continue to work with Subsystem experts to create and verify costing algorithms for each subsystem and major component Determine number of identical subsystems and major components necessary for the selected design (including EPR, subsystem demonstrations, DEMO, initial prototypes, and initial power reactors leading to the 10 th of a kind power plant, including spares Assess the learning curve associated with the subsystem and major components
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