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Duration MGT 4850 Spring 2009 University of Lethbridge
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Interest Rate Term Structure http://www.smartmoney.com/onebond/index.cfm?story=yieldcurve
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Bootstraping and Forward rates Non-arbitrage in Interest rate futures Trading the Yield curve Trading Spreads
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The NOB Spread The NOB spread is “notes over bonds” Traders who use NOB spreads are speculating on shifts in the yield curve –If you feel the gap between long-term rates and short-term rates is going to narrow ( yield curve slope decreases or flattens), you could sell T-note futures contracts and buy T-bond futures
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NOB spread (trading the yield curve) slope increases (long term R increases more than short term or short term even decreases) buy notes sell bonds
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TED spread (different yield curves) The TED spread is the difference between the price of the U.S. T-bill futures contract and the eurodollar futures contract, where both futures contracts have the same delivery month (T-bill yield<ED yield) –If you think the spread will widen, buy the spread (buy T-bill, sell ED)
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Trading Spreads
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Definition Measure of the sensitivity of the price of a bond to changes in the interest rate at which bond is discounted Macauley duration measure Basic Duration Calculation
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Using Excel Formula Settlement (purchase date) Maturity (bond’s maturity date) Coupon Yield (to maturity) Frequency (# coupons per year) Basis (day count) 0 30/360 1 act/actual 2 act/360 3 act/365 4 Eur 30/360
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Meaning of Duration Weighted Average of the bond’s payments Bond’s price elasticity with respect to its discount rate Discount factor elasticity Price volatility
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Babcock’s Formula Weighted average of “current yield” and PVIF
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Duration Patterns Maturity
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Duration Patterns Coupon
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