1. Estimating the Regional Effects of Development 1 Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia Center for Integrated Studies of the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Carnegie Mellon University 2 Resources for the Future, Washington, DC Research supported by: U.S. National Science Foundation Michelle Boyle 1 and Hadi Dowlatabadi 1,2 © 2003

2. Challenge: from project to region road port Not to scale !! mine power processing camp mine community

3. Drivers of Development in Arctic Communities Yukon & Alaska Nunavut

4. The Questions  Can we relate drivers to specific patterns of development?  Given expected significant environmental and social changes ahead, will historical patterns apply in the future?

5. Configuration of Communities = interaction of (drivers, local conditions, constraints) over time DriversLocal ConditionsConstraints FoodAccess to…Limited resources Military Scientific research Religion Cultural discord + Commercial trade Distant, unstable markets Economic dependence + + Non-renewable resource extraction Human capacity Few opportunities for diversification + + Climate Change

6. Outcomes of Research  Environmental Assessment: Better anticipate regional effects of development Incorporate uncertainty of environmental change  Focus attention for development planning in the context of environmental change

7. Thank you

8. Testing applicability of historical patterns  Start with historical patterns of development and important influencing factors  Investigate expected changes: environmental, social, economic, institutional, technological  Explore to what extent changes will affect important factors and development patterns (sensitivity analysis)

9. Distribution of Community Size

10. Development Factors Over Time (some examples) Evolving FactorsConstants Areas considered “the North”Remoteness, low density Non-integration Resource extraction: - type, method, by whom Exploitation by external interests for distant markets Access: - mode, infrastructure, technology Access is key Federal Policies: - hinterland, strategic, development and welfare Economic dependence, insufficient infrastructure and services

11. Persistence vs. Sustainability  Historically: subsistence = sustainable  Modern communities cannot be self-sufficient: Must generate income to buy food, supplies, energy Maintain services, human and ecological well-being Support growing population, future opportunities  Communities can persist without being sustainable Gap between persistence and sustainability = impacts of development

12. Impact Indicators  Valued Ecosystem Component e.g., water, air, ground pollution, caribou,…  Resource use  Ecological disturbance  Human health  Formal economic measures  Social and demographic changes