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KBC Group Life insurance business Embedded value as at 31 Dec 2005 and analysis of change and sensitivity Foto gebouw.

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Presentation on theme: "KBC Group Life insurance business Embedded value as at 31 Dec 2005 and analysis of change and sensitivity Foto gebouw."— Presentation transcript:

1 KBC Group Life insurance business Embedded value as at 31 Dec 2005 and analysis of change and sensitivity Foto gebouw

2 2 Cautionary Statements Embedded Value is the result of cash-flow projections with underlying assumptions and expectations. The values in this presentation are calculated on a deterministic basis. Many assumptions, such as the general economic conditions, performance of financial markets, taxes, changes in laws, frequency and severity of insured loss events, mortality and morbidity levels and trends, and others, are beyond the control of KBC. A modification of assumption can result in a significantly different Embedded Value. Deviations from assumed experience are normal and are to be expected. Even without any change in the parameters, actual results will vary from those projected due to normal random fluctuations. Embedded Value cannot be considered as an absolute value. This value, together with a sensitivity analysis, enables the recipient to obtain an idea of the magnitude of the expected value created by the insurance activities. Under no circumstances should the inclusion of the projections (including the relevant underlying assumptions and expectations) be regarded as a representation, warranty or prediction that the business will achieve or is likely to achieve any particular results.

3 3 Contents Life insurance activity Sales Technical charges Embedded Value (EV) Terminology Overview Adjusted Net Asset Value (ANAV) Components Roll forward, 2004-2005 Value of Business In Force (VBI) Scope Assumptions Sensitivities Roll forward, 2004-2005 Value of New Business (VNB) at date of sale Overview Sensitivities

4 4 Life insurance activity: Sales Growth in Total Life Sales, 1998-2005 (in ’000 EUR) 1 097 465 100% 1 341 980 122% 1 867 037 170% 1 666 842 152% 2 230 521 203% 2 547 557 232% 3 609 717 329% 6 382 502 582% (Premium income without the application of IFRS deposit accounting)

5 5 Life insurance activity: Technical provisions Growth in Technical Provisions, Life, 1998-2005 (in ’000 EUR) 4 373 520 100% 5 662 602 129% 6 783 772 155% 7 589 874 174% 8 697 296 199% 10 614 953 243% 13 494 338 309% 18 677 101 427%

6 6 PV Tied Surplus, Life Value In Force (VIF) Embedded Value: Terminology “Embedded Value” Shareholders’ Equity Economic Adjustments ANAV = Free Surplus As investment for Embedded Value > Equity adjustments > Asset adjustments > Resilience Reserves > Tax assets and liab. Tied Surplus, Life ANAV Other Allocated Surplus PVFP* VBI** (PVFP- Cost Tied Surplus) Tied Surplus Life or KBC standard Embedded Value Free Surplus Other Allocated Surplus Other Allocated Surplus = Tied Surplus Non Life + Other Tied Surplus *PVFP = Present Value of Future Profit **VBI = Value of Business In Force

7 7 Embedded Value: Overview (in ’000 EUR) 31/12/2004 restated 31/12/2005 VBI Life PVFP Cost of tied surplus 420 637 607 844 (187 207) 405 804 594 265 (188 461) 468 324 675 107 (206 783) +15.4% +13.6% Tied Surplus, Life*851 794862 7081 039 861+20.5% Value In Force1 272 4311 268 5121 508 185+18.9% Other Surplus1 622 6601 787 2252 028 302+13.5% Embedded Value2 895 0913 055 7373 536 487+15.8% Remarks: The value of the Non-Life portfolio is not taken into account. However, Other Surplus includes surplus of both Life and Non-Life activities. Restatements of the 2004 figures relate to model changes in VBI and IFRS adjustments to the ANAV

8 8 Adjusted Net Asset Value (ANAV): Composition “Adjusted Net Asset Value” (ANAV) = [+]Shareholders Equity [+] Equity Adjustments: Minority interests [+]/[-] Asset Adjustments: Excluding unrealised capital gains on AFS bonds backing the life portfolio (“buy-and-hold” philosophy) Goodwill deducted [+]Additional Reserves: Additional reserves, life, minus the cost of holding those reserves [-] Tax assets and liabilities on the above

9 9 Adjusted Net Asset Value (ANAV): Composition as at 31/12/2005 (in ’000 EUR) ('000 EUR) 3 198 958 +74 271 -349 937 +219 468 -74 597 3 068 163 Shareholders’ equity equity adjustments asset adjustments additional reserves, life tax assets and liab. ANAV * Shareholders’ equity after dividend payout *

10 10 Adjusted Net Asset Value (ANAV): Roll-forward, 2004 – 2005 (in ’000 EUR) 3 068 163 +175 480 +461 852 -527 000 +454 561 2 474 453 + 28 816 Reported Anav 31/12/2004 Restated Anav 01/01/2005 Profit in 2005 Dividends Paid Asset Value Adjustments Other Anav 31/12/2005

11 11 Value of Business in Force (VBI): Scope Modelled: 86.97% of the mathematical reserves 97.88% of the total premium income in 2005 99.88% of the new premium income in 2005 Activities under review: KBC Insurance Belgium + Fidea + Vitis Life Total technical provisions: 17 786 million EUR Activities not under review: Central European subsidiaries (CSOB CZ, CSOB SK, K&H Life, WARTA Vita) Secura (re-insurance) Total technical provisions: 891 million EUR

12 12 Value of Business in Force (VBI): Assumptions KBC RBC Requirements (legal requirements) % of reserves % of sum at risk Unit-Linked 0.5% (0 or 1%) 0.375% (0.3%) Non-Linked Pension products 75 F.I./ 20 S./ 5 P. mix 8.5% (4%) 0.375% (0.3%) Non-Linked Investment products 88 F.I./11 S./ 1 P.mix 5.98% (4%) 0.375% (0.3%) The current RBC for Life activities is 188.4 % of the legally required solvency margin for the Life business (176% in 2004)

13 13 Value of Business in Force (VBI): Assumptions Expenses: Expenses are allocated to the different products and activities in such a way that the total expenses in the study equal the total expenses in the statutory accounts Expenses increase with expected wage inflation Future expense reductions programmes and synergies are not taken into account Mortality: Assumptions based on most recent industry experience were used Lapses: Assumptions based on annual experience, investigations of surrenders and paid-ups, with a reasonable safety margin Assumptions are set according to product and to distribution channel

14 14 Value of Business in Force (VBI): Assumptions 20042005 10-year bond yield (Rate from 2010 on) 3.6% pa (4.80% pa) 3.5% pa (4.75% pa) Risk Prem. on equity2.50% pa Risk Premium used for discount rate 3.50% pa Discount rate* (= Cost of Capital, CoC) 8.30% pa*8.00% pa* Expense (wage) inflation (Rate from 2006 on) 2.20% pa (2.50% pa) 2.20% pa (2.50% pa) * Based on the bond yield in the long run - weighted Average Cost of Capital, taking into account partial funding with subordinated loans

15 15 Value of Business in Force (VBI): Overview (in ’000 EUR, only reserves of modelled business) PVFPVBIVIFPVFP/ res. VBI/ res. reserves 2004607 844420 6371 272 4315.4%3.7%11 294 213 2005675 107468 3241 508 1854.4%3.0%15 418 013 %+11.3%+11.1%+17.9%-1.0%-0.7%+36.5%

16 16 Total + 10%- 10% Expenses-4.5%+4.5% Lapses & Dormancy-2.6%+3.2% Mortality-2.9%+2.9% Value of Business in Force (VBI): Sensitivities Effect of non-econonmic parameters on VBI: + 1.0 %- 1.0 % Discount rate -14.8%+16.7% Investment Return +10.8%-16.2% Effect of economic parameters on VBI:

17 17 Value of Business in Force (VBI): Sensitivities Current RBC KBC Insurance 100% of the legal SM 150% of the legal SM 200% of the legal SM Embedded Value3 536 4873 626 0043 573 0933 520 183 VIF1 508 1851 109 7091 332 7331 555 756 VBI468 324557 841504 931452 020 Changing the solvency margin: (in ’000 EUR)

18 18 Value of Business in Force (VBI): Roll-forward, 2004 – 2005 (in EUR) +4 806 442 -11 437 100 +96 502 780 -56 154 239 +33 307 748 -4 505 681 -14 832 901 468 323 796 420 636 746 VBI 31/12/2004 model changes Change non-econ. assumptions Unwinding discounting Cashflow to ANAV VNB as of 31/12/2005 Variances over 2005 Change econ.assumptions VBI 31/12/2004

19 19 Value of New Business (VNB): Overview (new business at date of sale) APE (Annualised Premium Equivalent) PVFPVNBPVFP as % of APE VNB as % of APE Total, 2005570 385125 73398 04422.04%17.19% Total, 2004324 17074 48757 19922.98%17.64% (in ’000 EUR)

20 20 Value of New Business (VNB): Sensitivities (at date of sale) + 10%- 10% Expenses-5.93%5.93% Lapses-3.19%3.64% Mortality-2.59%2.62% Non-Economic Sensitivities: - 0.5%+ 0.5 % Discount rate +5.86%-6.27% Investment Return (excl. disc. rate) -6.23%+5.18% Economic Sensitivities:

21 21 Review Lane Clark & Peacock Belgium reviewed the methodology and assumptions used by KBC Insurance in the determination of the Embedded Value at 31/12/2005, the Value of 2005 New Business and the analysis of the change in the value of in-force business for the Life Insurance activities of KBC Insurance. It is the view of Lane Clark & Peacock Belgium, based on the data made available, that the assumptions used are reasonable and that the methodology used by KBC Insurance is in line with basic principles described in appropriate literature. Our assignment included a review of the calculations.This review was not a detailed verification of the correctness of all calculations. This review was a limited high-level reasonableness checks on the results and included a detailed review on a limited random sample of contracts of the insurance portfolio of KBC Insurance. No material issues have been discovered. Therefore, based on our work and our validation report on the work carried out by KBC Insurance, we consider the embedded value, the value of new business and the analysis of the change in the value of in-force for the life business to be reasonable and suitable for inclusion as supplementary information to the Group’s consolidated accounts.

22 22 Contact information Investor Relations Office Luc Cool, Head of IR Luc Albrecht, Financial Communications Officer Tamara Bollaerts, IR Coordinator Marina Kanamori, CSR Communications Officer Nele Kindt, IR Analyst E-mail: investor.relations@kbc.com Surf to www.kbc.com for the latest update.


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