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A Quantitative Approach to the Equity Markets February 10, 2005 Shakeel Dewji Vice President and Portfolio Manager.

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Presentation on theme: "A Quantitative Approach to the Equity Markets February 10, 2005 Shakeel Dewji Vice President and Portfolio Manager."— Presentation transcript:

1 A Quantitative Approach to the Equity Markets February 10, 2005 Shakeel Dewji Vice President and Portfolio Manager

2 Agenda I. Introduction II. Methodology III. Portfolio Review IV. Overview

3 Partners in Managing Client Assets

4 Our Objective: “To provide independent, unbiased investment management and above-benchmark risk-adjusted returns for clients.” Assets Under Management:$4.2 billion Client Type: Private Advisory, Institutional, Sub-Advisory Resources:16 Portfolio Managers 4 Research Analysts 10 CFAs 2 CFPs 12 Graduate Degrees Ownership:The Advest/MONY Group, Inc.

5 Private Advisory: $ 1,300m Institutional: 800m Lebenthal Asset Mgmt.: 400m Money Funds: 1,700m Total Assets =$ 4,200m Assets Under Management As of Dec 31, 2003

6 Types of Clients P rivate Advisory – Individual – Trust – IRA – Pension/Profit Sharing Institutional – Public Retirement Plans – Endowments – Corporations – Mutual Funds Investment Disciplines Large/Mid-Cap Core Equity Small Cap Core Equity Equity Income LAM Municipal Bond LAM Taxable Municipal Bond Core Fixed Income

7 Partial Client List (Institutional) : Adviser to Boston Advisors Trust City of Attleboro, MA Public Employee Retirement System (P.E.R.S.) State of Florida South Shore Mental Health Center Enterprise Group of Funds Town of Maynard, MA P.E.R.S. Adviser to Lebenthal Family of Funds Buehler Memorial Endowment Boston Medical Library Endowment Macau Catholic Mission Endowment Town of Milford, MA P.E.R.S. YMCA of Greater Buffalo Passavant Memorial Homes

8 Fundamental Research: 1) Analyst Bias - Natural Result of Human Research and Hard Work 2) SEC Regulation “Fair Disclosure” - New Playing Field 3) Research Scale and Effort Quantitative Research: 1) Increase the “Batting Average” of Research Efforts 2) Objective Buy/Sell Process - Discipline & Risk Management 3) Incorporate Sum Total of Industry’s Fundamental Research Comparing Research Styles: A Case for Quantitative Equity Management

9 BAI Equity Process Multi-Factor Models as Inputs... 1) Define Primary Universe - i.e.: “S&P 500” 2) Absolute Value Model 3) Relative Earnings & Revenue Growth Model 4) Relative Price Strength Model...Leads to Decile Rankings of Stocks: Tier 1 --> Tier 10...Yields Sector Weightings ( Average T1, T2 and Index) …Create Portfolio Customized to Client Objectives

10 BAI Model Descriptions < Absolute Value Model - Use traditional valuation metrics - P/Earnings, P/Sales, P/Book, ROE, P/Cash Flow - EPS Growth & Revenue Growth < Relative Earnings & Revenue Growth Model - Relative Strength in Earnings (current Q. vs. year ago Q.) - Relative Strength in Stock Price (relative to broad universe) - EPS Surprise Factor (relative to estimates) - Analyst Estimate Dispersion & Revision Direction - Value Component (relative to historical average) < Relative Price Strength Model - Price Strength Relative to Universe - Previous 12 months, 6 months and 3 months - More Heavily Weighted to most recent 13 weeks

11 Tier 1 Tier 10 Business Momentum Factors Estimate Revision Earnings Change Earnings Growth Earnings Surprise Price Momentum Valuation Factors Book Value Reported Earnings Yield Estimated Earnings Yield Cash Flow Dividend Yield

12 Distribution of Stock Ratings Most stocks are neutral rated. The distribution follows a bell- shaped curve.

13 Fund A

14 Fund B

15 Fund C

16 And the Funds Are... Fund A- Value Line Large Growth Fund Fund B- Vanguard 500 Index Fund Fund C- Fidelity Magellan

17 Large-Cap Composite Performance

18 Small-Cap Composite Performance

19 Large-Cap Sector Weighting

20 Large-Cap Relative Sector Weighting

21 Large-Cap 1 Month Attribution

22 Small-Cap Sector Weighting

23 Small-Cap Relative Sector Weighting

24 Small-Cap 1 Month Attribution

25 UC Portfolio Sector Weighting

26 UC Portfolio Relative Sector Weighting

27 UC Portfolio 1 Month Attribution

28 UC Portfolio

29 UC Portfolio Cont’d.


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