1. Empirical Landslide Modeling Finn Krogstad UW Forest Engineering May 30, 1990

2. Overview Why Empirical Modeling? A simple example Logistic Regression Results

3. Why Empirical Modeling? Most landslide models show where landslides will be, but not how many. If we want to evaluate operations or landscape plans, we need to know how many landslides will result from our plan.

4. A simple example Q: How many landslides will a high hazard area produced? A: Count the fraction that have slid already, and apply this to the proposed action.

5. Regression The familiar form can also be thought of as Allows any mapable variables of interest Already coded in ArcInfo Output in Probability of Landsliding

6. Hazard Mapping Using just slope and curvature, we can create a hazard map, much like SMORPH. This map can guide our design

7. Operational Assessment Calculate cell probabilities before and after the operation, subtract, and sum the differences (  E(ls)=.364). beforeafterdifference

8. Landscape Evaluation Same as the Operational evaluation, but on a larger scale.