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PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics Climate, Climate Change Nuclear Power and the Alternatives.

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1 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics Climate, Climate Change Nuclear Power and the Alternatives

2 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics PHYC 40050 Peter Lynch Meteorology & Climate Centre School of Mathematical Sciences University College Dublin Climate, Climate Change Nuclear Power and the Alternatives

3 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics EdGCM Lecture 6

4 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics A Global Climate Model for Research and Education The EdGCM Cooperative Project, Columbia University Support provided by: NSF Paleoclimate Program and NASA High-Performance Computing Program

5 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics Ed GCM Project Goal To improve the teaching and learning of climate change science by providing the education community with access to: 1) 1)A research quality global climate model (GCM) 2) 2)A user-friendly interface to operate the GCM and organize the results 3) 3)Educational materials to make the GCM a useful tool for learning about the climate system

6 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics A Global Climate Model Computer-based modelling program Relational Database Graphical User Interface Post-Processing Software Scientific Visualization Tools (EVA) Software for constructing scientific manuscripts and publishing them to the web. What is EdGCM? Educational Global Climate Model

7 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics And why should we be interested in it? What is a GCM? General Circulation Model Global Climate Model

8 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics Climate change is in the news

9 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics It’s in the science news!

10 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics CAUSEEFFECT Recent Climate Change: Observed forcings and results.

11 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics The Keeling curve (Charles Keeling) Carbon dioxide concentration

12 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics

13 CAUSEEFFECT Future Climate Change: Uncertainty of forcing.

14 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics Hansen, 2004

15 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics CAUSEEFFECT Past Climate Change: Observed results. Uncertain forcings.

16

17 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping Feb SST ElevationLand Cover Sea Ice Aug SST

18 Trends, Rhythms, and Aberrations in Global Climate 65 Ma to Present James Zachos, 1* Mark Pagani, 1 Lisa Sloan, 1 Ellen Thomas, 2, 3 Katharina Billups 4 Science 27 April 2001: Vol. 292. no. 5517, pp. 686 - 693 DOI: 10.1126/science.105941

19 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics 2005 - Warmest Year on Record http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005/

20 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics CAUSEEFFECT PROCESS

21 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics While I am prepared to accept that there may be global warming, nothing I have seen shows a causal connection. Tim, UK One of the most persistent arguments made by those who do not believe that climate change is caused by human activity is that there is "no consensus" amongst climatologists about this. Tim Dennell, Sheffield, United Kingdom Five hundred years ago the scientific consensus was that the world was flat. Thirty years ago, we were about to enter another ice age. Twenty years from now we will all have a good laugh about "global warming". Thumper31 Climate Sceptics (from BBC website)

22 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics Cartesian Grid General Circulation Models (Henderson-Sellers, 1985)(Hansen et al., 1983) The GCM in EdGCM: GISS Model II

23 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics Climate Model Parameterizations

24 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics GISS Global Climate Model Grid Resolutions 8°X 10° 4°X 5° 2°X 2.5°

25 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics GCM Boundary Condition Data Files SST JAN DEC SEA-ICE JAN DEC VEG SEA LEVEL TOPO- GRAPHY A GCM boundary condition set consists of global scale data sets on a latitude by longitude grid.

26 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics Paleogeography Throughout Earth History Cretaceous JurassicPaleocene Pliocene (180 Ma) (100 Ma) (58 Ma) (3 Ma)

27 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics Prescribed Climate Forcings Solar Luminosity Orbital Parameters Radiatively Significant Trace Gases Volcanic Aerosols Other Natural and Anthropogenic Aerosols

28 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics Ed GCM Project Objectives 1)Allow teachers to run a NASA global climate model on a desktop computer, encouraging students to participate in the full scientific process including: experiment design, running simulations, analyzing data and reporting results.

29 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics Ed GCM Project Objectives 1)Allow teachers to run a NASA global climate model on a desktop computer, encouraging students to participate in the full scientific process including: experiment design, running simulations, analyzing data and reporting results. 2)Facilitate collaborations between the education community and research institutions and among universities. In this way, students will become familiar with the role that teamwork plays in scientific research.

30 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics Partnerships Scientific Research Involves Teamwork

31 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics Step 1: Setting Up Climate Model Simulations Organizing and Designing Scientific Experiments

32 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics Snowball_sim2.R Model II 8/24/2000 Owner: Dr. Mark Chandler, chandler@giss.nasa.gov Group: Paleoclimate Group This experiment simulates a time period approximately 600 million years ago. There is evidence that a “super” ice age occurred that effected even tropical continents. Did the Earth freeze over entirely??? Object modules: MainC9 DiagC9 RadC9 FFTC9 UTILC9 Data input files: 7=G8X10_600Ma 9=NOV1910.rsf_snowball 15=O8X10_600Ma 17= 25=Modern_OceanTransports 19=CD8X10_600Ma 23=V8X10_600Ma 26=Z8X101_600Ma 21=RTAU.G25L15 22=RPLK25 29=Snowball_Earth_Regions Label and Namelist: Snowball_sim2 (Snowball Earth Experiment: 600 million years ago) &INPUTZ TAUI=10176.,IYEAR=1900, KOCEAN=1, SRCOR=.95485638151, S0X=1.,CO2=.31746031746031, USET=0.,TAUE=35040., USESLP=-12., ISTART=3,KCOPY=2,NDPRNT=-1,TAUE=10177.,TAUP=95616., &END

33 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics Scarsdale Teachers Institute, March 3 and 4, 2006

34 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics Step 2: Post-processing of raw GCM output Step 3: Visualization of climate model variables Analyzing the Results of Scientific Experiments

35 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics Excel Tables Maps Line Plots Panoply EVA

36 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics Step 4: Generating scientific-style manuscripts Step 5: “Publishing” and presenting results Reporting Results of Scientific Experiments

37 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics eJournals Image Libraries

38 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics

39 The EdGCM website is a focal point for collaborations, which will allow for: Downloads of EdGCM software, materials, and updates Simulation exchanges Discussion groups A location to publish results Development work News, EdGCM Excercises, and Community Showcases

40 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics 1. 1.EdGCM is designed to support a broad range of National and State Science Education Standards A Few Final Points

41 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics 1. 1.EdGCM is designed to support a broad range of National and State Science Education Standards 2. 2.On-line Materials: Technical manual Software downloads Quicktime video tutorials - coming soon A Few Final Points

42 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics 1. 1.EdGCM is designed to support a broad range of National and State Science Education Standards 2. 2.On-line Materials: Technical manual Software downloads Quicktime video tutorials - coming soon 3. 3.Information Resources and Educational Materials Electronic Support Forums Frequently Asked Questions Guide Community Showcase Simulation and eJournal Exchanges Climate Science in Action - EdGCM Excercises A Few Final Points

43 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics http://edgcm.columbia.edu

44 PHYC 40050 Environmental Physics End of Lecture 6

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