1. Hidden Markov Models David Meir Blei November 1, 1999

2. What is an HMM? Graphical Model Circles indicate states Arrows indicate probabilistic dependencies between states

3. What is an HMM? Green circles are hidden states Dependent only on the previous state “The past is independent of the future given the present.”

4. What is an HMM? Purple nodes are observed states Dependent only on their corresponding hidden state

5. HMM Formalism {S, K,  S : {s 1 …s N } are the values for the hidden states K : {k 1 …k M } are the values for the observations SSS KKK S K S K

6. HMM Formalism {S, K,     are the initial state probabilities A = {a ij } are the state transition probabilities B = {b ik } are the observation state probabilities A B AAA BB SSS KKK S K S K

7. Inference in an HMM Compute the probability of a given observation sequence Given an observation sequence, compute the most likely hidden state sequence Given an observation sequence and set of possible models, which model most closely fits the data?

8. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 Given an observation sequence and a model, compute the probability of the observation sequence Decoding

9. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 x1x1 x t+1 xTxT xtxt x t-1

10. Decoding oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 x1x1 x t+1 xTxT xtxt x t-1

11. Decoding oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 x1x1 x t+1 xTxT xtxt x t-1

12. Decoding oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 x1x1 x t+1 xTxT xtxt x t-1

13. Decoding oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 x1x1 x t+1 xTxT xtxt x t-1

14. Forward Procedure oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 x1x1 x t+1 xTxT xtxt x t-1 Special structure gives us an efficient solution using dynamic programming. Intuition: Probability of the first t observations is the same for all possible t+1 length state sequences. Define:

15. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 x1x1 x t+1 xTxT xtxt x t-1 Forward Procedure

16. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 x1x1 x t+1 xTxT xtxt x t-1 Forward Procedure

17. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 x1x1 x t+1 xTxT xtxt x t-1 Forward Procedure

18. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 x1x1 x t+1 xTxT xtxt x t-1 Forward Procedure

19. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 x1x1 x t+1 xTxT xtxt x t-1 Forward Procedure

20. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 x1x1 x t+1 xTxT xtxt x t-1 Forward Procedure

21. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 x1x1 x t+1 xTxT xtxt x t-1 Forward Procedure

22. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 x1x1 x t+1 xTxT xtxt x t-1 Forward Procedure

23. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 x1x1 x t+1 xTxT xtxt x t-1 Backward Procedure Probability of the rest of the states given the first state

24. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 x1x1 x t+1 xTxT xtxt x t-1 Decoding Solution Forward Procedure Backward Procedure Combination

25. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 Best State Sequence Find the state sequence that best explains the observations Viterbi algorithm

26. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 Viterbi Algorithm The state sequence which maximizes the probability of seeing the observations to time t-1, landing in state j, and seeing the observation at time t x1x1 x t-1 j

27. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 Viterbi Algorithm Recursive Computation x1x1 x t-1 xtxt x t+1

28. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 Viterbi Algorithm Compute the most likely state sequence by working backwards x1x1 x t-1 xtxt x t+1 xTxT

29. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 Parameter Estimation Given an observation sequence, find the model that is most likely to produce that sequence. No analytic method Given a model and observation sequence, update the model parameters to better fit the observations. A B AAA BBBB

30. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 Parameter Estimation A B AAA BBBB Probability of traversing an arc Probability of being in state i

31. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 Parameter Estimation A B AAA BBBB Now we can compute the new estimates of the model parameters.

32. HMM Applications Generating parameters for n-gram models Tagging speech Speech recognition

33. oToT o1o1 otot o t-1 o t+1 The Most Important Thing A B AAA BBBB We can use the special structure of this model to do a lot of neat math and solve problems that are otherwise not solvable.