1. Navy Modeling Activities Presented by Erick Rogers “Ocean Dynamics and Prediction” Branch of the Oceanography Division of the Naval Research Laboratory

2. Forecasting Systems  Fleet Numerical (official forecasts)  Naval Oceanographic Office (official)  Naval Research Laboratory (technology demonstrations, realtime but pre-operational products)

3. FNMOC (Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center) (Monterey, CA) FNMOC wave models: limited to global and regional Example FNMOC web page

4. FNMOC wave products Example FNMOC product (output from global model)

5. FNMOC wave products Example FNMOC web page (output from one regional model)

6. FNMOC wave products Example FNMOC product (output from one regional model)

7. FNMOC meteorological products Example FNMOC product (surface winds from one regional model)

8. NAVO (Naval Oceanographic Office) NAVO wave models: (officially) limited to sub-regional and coastal applications Example NAVO web page and graphic from a sub-regional application (SWAN)

9. The Naval Research Laboratory Navy’s corporate laboratory Three campuses: Washington DC Stennis Space Center, MS Monterey, CA Basic (6.1) through applied (6.2) research, technology transfer (6.4), technology demonstration Primary funding from ONR Compete internally for block funding from ONR (very competitive) Make up remainder with funding from SPAWAR (6.4) or direct proposals to ONR programs (also very competitive)

11. Circulation modeling at NRL Example NRL realtime circulation model webpage (Global NCOM)

12. Circulation modeling at NRL Example NRL realtime circulation model graphics (Global NCOM). Potential uses: search and rescue spill mitigation

13. NRL Oceanography Division, Waves Group Richard A. Allard (6.4) – Transitions of technologies to operations; rapidly relocatable modeling systems; head of coastal oceanographic modeling Section James D. Dykes (6.4) – Transitions; Forecast system development; Delft3d implementation/validation; hindcasting; parallel computing; meteorological modeling Kacey L. Edwards (6.1, 6.2) – Phase-resolved modeling; Nearshore breaking and nonlinear interactions Y. Larry Hsu (6.4) – Transitions; Delft3d implementations; Navy Standard Surf Model; Lagrangian swell modeling; model validation Paul Hwang (6.1) – Physical Oceanography; basic processes theoretical research; gravity-capillary waves; air-sea interaction; airborne remote sensing of waves James M. Kaihatu (6.1, 6.2) – Phase-resolved model development; nearshore breaking and nonlinear interactions; data assimilation; wave-induced circulation; AUVs W. Erick Rogers (6.2, 6.4) – Phase-averaged model development/validation; global, regional, sub-regional applications; remote sensing applications; forecasting systems Jay Veeramony (6.1, 6.2) – Phase-resolved model development; turbulence and vorticity; nonlinear interactions; surf zone processes; nearshore wave breaking David Wang (6.1) – Physical Oceanography; ship-borne experiments; data processing; basic processes research; sea-swell separation; extreme waves; wavelet and HHT

14. NRL Oceanography Division, Waves Group: Model Suite  Global, regional wave applications WAVEWATCH-III WAM (phasing out)  Subregional, coastal wave applications SWAN STWAVE (phasing out)  Wave-induced circulation Delft3D 1D Surf Model (phasing out)  Research codes REF/DIF1, REF/DIF-S, REF/DIF-SNL Boussinesq models (time-domain and frequency domain)

15. Coastal Storms Program (CSP) (Sponsor: NOAA) NRL Washington/Oregon Wave Forecasting System Example forecast: 1200 UTC June 17 2005 http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/CNW/

16. CSP Wave forecasting system 2D Graphics: Wave height, mean direction, wind speed, direction Forcing from NCEP regional model WA/OR system is one of three systems created by NRL for NOAA. (Support to NRL ~30k/yr)

17. CSP Wave forecasting system 6 Computational Grids for the WA/OR System: 1 outer grid 1 shelf grid 3 3 rd level nest 1 4 th level nest

18. CSP Wave forecasting system Mouseover to view prior analyses present analysis forecasts Example 2D Graphic

19. CSP Wave forecasting system

30. Wave forecasts for the Columbia River nest include water level and current forcing provided by the Oregon Graduate Institute (available as experimental product on ftp site) CSP Wave forecasting system

31. Example current forcing for experimental Col. R. nest

32. Wave Climatologies

33. Climatologies (Jim Dykes)

34. From global climatology database

35. Model Development, Validation, and Related Research

36. Example of research and model development: Wave Propagation Over Viscous Muds Collaborators: Alexandru Sheremet, Louisiana State University Jim Kaihatu, Erick Rogers, NRL-Stennis Cassino Beach, Brazil Less mud, more breaking More mud, less breaking Formula describing wave attenuation by viscous mud layer has been implemented and tested in SWAN wave model. (Validation forthcoming)

37. Spectrum from WW3 (NW location) Spectrum from WW3 (SW location, used to force SWAN) CDIP buoy (NW location) This component not measured by nearby CDIP buoy shown here Spurious swell component exists here also Spurious swell from southwest exists in the boundary forcing from WW3 ENP model Oct 22 – Nov 8: study of swell forcing Investigations of Wave Model Error, first example

38. Model uses DIA, but spreading is not overpredicted in the mean Advanced validation of wave models: validation of directional spreading

39. QuikSCAT data within ±6 hours of analysis time Gaps filled in by blending with operational NOGAPS analyses Wind analysis for Jan. 21. 1500Z, 2003 Utilizing remote sensing to determine source of model error

40. ; Jan. 11, 2003, 1200 UTC Wave Analyses for Jan. 11, 2003, 1200 UTC Utilizing remote sensing to determine source of model error

41. Winter 2001/2002 Utilizing remote sensing to determine source of model error

42. SWAN error comparison at gage 10 (  = normalized rms error) baseline: REF/DIF model (no diffusion)  =0.17  Equal resolution (xy=200m) BSBT   =0.74 SORDUP   =0.31 SL1   =0.25  Equivalent computation time BSBT (xy = 100 m)   =0.55 SORDUP (xy = 100m )   =0.26 SL1 (xy = 400 m )   =0.42  is a measure of relative error Investigations of Wave Model Error, second example

43. Evaluation of SWAN and WAVEWATCH3 for Hurricane Ivan (this is WW3) H m0 (m)

44. Wave measurements in the eye of Hurricane Ivan

46. The End

47. 6.2 ONR / 6.4 SPAWAR Objective: Develop a nowcasting system for nearshore waves and circulation which combines bathymetry melded from various sources (including on-scene UUVs) with a nearshore modeling system forced by an integrated ocean prediction system Approach: Evaluate Delft3D nearshore modeling system and integrate it with forcing from DIOPS regional modeling system Develop standalone implementation of modeling system which allows local observations to be input as forcing for real time nowcast Develop methodologies to meld UUV bathymetry with historical data and provide estimate of error Project Title: Development of an AUV-Fed Nearshore Nowcasting System Co-investigators: Jim Kaihatu, Richard Allard, Todd Holland (7440), Brian Bourgeois (7440)

48. Application to CJTFEX 2004 DIOPS SWAN forcing Delft3D Delft3D set up in UUV operating areas Delft3D forecast waves and currents every 6 hours Sig. Wave Ht. 0.7 m 1kt U,V Bathymetry updated with UUV measurements http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/CJTFEX/CJTFEX_2004.html 6.2 ONR / 6.4 SPAWARProject Title: Development of an AUV-Fed Nearshore Nowcasting System

49. Generational Improvement in Operational Forecasting Capability  Previous nearshore operational capability: Navy Standard Surf Model One-dimensional Overly constrained: breaking waves  longshore currents  Delft3D system now embedded at Mission Support Center Communicates with DIOPS MSC scientists trained on DIOPS and Delft3D

50. Example Development/Validation Project: Random Wave Forcing of Nearshore Circulation Validation of the REFDIFS- SHORECIRC combination at Duck94. Top panel is the model-predicted magnitude of the cross-shore velocity.[red is shoreward (to the left), blue is seaward (to the right)] Bottom panel is the velocity profile of the current (solid lines) compared to measurements (+).

51. 6.2 ONR / 6.4 SPAWAR Project Title: Development of an AUV-Fed Nearshore Nowcasting System Bathymetric Update Delft3D DIOPS Matlab Graphics Output Automatically run for forecast cycle Bathymetric Interpolator by Holland, et al. Delft3D Bathymetric Update Delft3D Transport to scene Matlab Graphics Output Wave input based on local observations DIOPS for Tides Bathymetric Interpolator by Holland, et al. Coupled DIOPS/Delft3D SystemStandalone Delft3D

52. WW3 Significant Wave Height SE Asia, September Resolution: 1 deg spatial, 3 hr temp James Dykes, NRL-SSC, provided original plots. NRL-SSC will build 10 yr WW3 data sets for selected enclosed basins, such as Persian Gulf, at.2 deg. Still need longer time period and higher resolution in space and time. Long Term Mean (1993-2002) Anomaly 1999 (La Nina)Anomaly 1997 (El Nino) Climatologies

53. Climatologies (Jim Dykes) Domain for Med Sea 10-year runs 1992 – 2002 pending