1. Objects Basic Research (Hypotheses and Understanding) Applied Research (Applications and Tools) Joint effects of ENSO and SST anomalies in different ocean basins Refine understanding the predictability in association with ENSO Changing ENSO teleconnection spatial and temporal patterns over time Develop tools for prediction of US drought using information of Indian Ocean and tropical Pacific SST anomalies Interdecadal and long-term trends (both natural and man-made) Assess the state of long-term trends in real-time Connection of global trends and US trends Joint effects of El Nino and long-term trends Make application as forecast tools Land surface impact Local and non-local impacts of soil moisture and snow cover on subsequent temperature and precipitation Theoretical study on unstable modes in the coupled land-atmosphere system Make application as forecast tools Apply the theory of unstable modes in the coupled land- atmosphere system to explain persistent drought/flood as nature ‘cycles’ Predictability Studies R&D Needs Update Back

2. Examples of the variety of tools used in preparing the 30-day 0.5 month lead 30-day outlook and the multi-lead 90-day outlooks may be found at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools /briefing/ These forecast tools consist of 3 types: 1.Statistical: CCA, OCN, MLR 2.Dynamical: Coupled GCM, AGCM, ensembles 3.Physically-based composites. 30-,90-day Forecast Tools

3. INTEGRATED OCEAN MODEL- DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM COUPLED OCEAN- ATMOSPHERE GCM AGCM FORECASTS STATISTICAL TOOLS: CCA, CA STATISTICAL TOOLS SSTTOPEXXBTTAO OCEAN INITIAL CONDITIONS STRESS EVAP- PRECIP FLUX SSTA SSMI/ERS-2 HEAT FLUXES OFFICIAL SST FCST OFFICIAL PROBABILISTIC T,P OUTLOOKS FORECASTERS SURFACE T, P ANOMALIES IRI CDC TIER 2 Back NCEP Two-Tier Climate Modeling System