1. Jon D. Erickson Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources University of Vermont We Paved Paradise and Put up a Parking Lot Economic, Social, and Ecological Implications of Incremental Choice

2. The Tyranny of Small Decisions FEEDBACK LOOPS (marginal, and potentially episodic) Marginal Land-Use Change Marginal Economic Change Incremental Watershed Health Decline Chlorides School Quality Traffic Congestion Energy Dependence Social Networks Community Services

3. Out from Under the Tyranny FEEDBACK LOOPS PARTICIPATORY PLANNING for BIO-REGIONAL POLICY Watershed Health Land-Use Change and Social Context Biophysical Land Use Society Community Economy Firms Households Economic Structure and Change $

4. Dutchess County, New York 2,077 km 2, mixed land use 970 km of named streams > 132,000 employment pool IBM = >11,000 SW to NE development gradient Effective buying income (EBI) ranks 15th in the U.S.

5. 1992 2001 % urban/suburban % forest % agricultural WappingersWatershed Historical land use change

6. 1992 2001 % urban/suburban % forest % agricultural Fishkill Watershed Historical land use change

7. Increases in urban and suburban land as a percent of subcatchment area, for 33 sites in the Fishkill (designated with F codes) and Wappingers (W codes) watersheds. Code numbers increase with distance upstream.

8. DM-2 DM-1 DM-3 Alt-1Alt-3 Alt-2 Group of Decision-Makers

9. C Sc C Ev C Ec Alt-1Alt-3 Alt-2 Individual Decision-Maker

10. GOAL Alternative 1Alternative 2Alternative 3 C Ec C Sc C Ev C Ec C Sc C Ev C Ec C Sc C Ev w 1 + w 2 + w 3 = 1 C Sc C Ev C Ec Alt-1Alt-3 Alt-2

11. Alternatives C Ec C Sc Ecological Criteria Chemistry follows land use But, biotic responses very noisy!

12. Land Use Alternatives C Ec Social Criteria C Ev Censusby Block, Tract, Town, Zip... Business Point Tax Parcel

13. Alternatives Economic Criteria C Sc C Ev GOVERMENT OUTSIDEWORLD CAPITAL ExportsImports INDUSTRY HOUSEHOLDS DepreciationInvestment ConsumptionGoods Labor Private Goods & Services PublicServices

14. Alt 1Alt 2Alt 3

15. Scenario Analysis Watershed Health SustainableSCALE Land-Use Change and Social Context Biophysical Land Use Society Community Economy Firms Households Individuals EquitableDISTRIBUTION Economic Structure and Change EfficientALLOCATION

16. GOAL Alternative 1Alternative 2Alternative 3 C Ec C Sc C Ev C Ec C Sc C Ev C Ec C Sc C Ev