1. Space weather Henrik Lundstedt Swedish Institute of Space Physics, Lund, Sweden www.lund.irf.se

2. Outline Solar activity - the driver of space weather Forecast methods Applications Implementations for users Forecast centers (ISES/RWCs)

3. Space weather was mentioned for the first time in Swedish media 1991 The US National Space Weather Program 1995: Space weather refers to conditions on the sun, and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and Endanger human life or health. ESA Space Weather Programme started in April 1999. We started early in Lund HD 1981 (cycle 21) SDS 1991 (cycle 22) Arbetet 1981 (cycle 21)

4. Why are space weather programs (ILWS/ESASWP) important? They raise fundamental questions within space physics (about e.g. solar activity within solar physics) They require a new scientific approach: an interdisciplinary approach (Knowledge from many disciplines must be used: solar physics, interplanetary, magnetospheric, ionospheric, atmospheric physics, physics about dynamic nonlinear systems, IHS and so on) They show how fundamental forecasting is within science and again that a new approach is needed (Knowled-based neural models) Forecasts of real-world events are also the real test of a model

5. Solar activity Solar activity is the driver of space weather Better understanding and improved forecasts of solar activity are therefore a prime goal within space weather programs and a real challenge Let me therefore now discuss new observation facilities, some new research results and attempts to forecast solar activity

6. Solar observations with the new Swedish solar telescope on La Palma 2002 1980-2002 1951-1980 Anacapri, Capri, Italy

7. Solar Orbiter The orbit at heliocentric distance of 45 Rs and out-of ecliptic at heliographic latitudes of up to 38 degrees gives a 0.”05 resolution and a possibility to study the polar field that determines the 11 years solar cycle. Launch 2009.

8. SDO

9. SOHO has given us a totally new picture of the Sun- always active Solar Heliospheric Observatory was launched on December 2, 1995 SOHO carries three instruments observing the solar interior, six the solar corona and three the solar wind

10. The oscillations reveal solar interior

11. MDI/SOHO reveals the interior and explains surface activity MDI shows how magnetic elements form sunspots MDI shows how the dynamo changes (1.3y) Sunspots are footpoints of emerging magnetic flux tubes

12. Change of the nature of solar activity 1850 - 2000 High frequency content (2-4 days period) decreases with time, while the low frequency content (20-128 days) increases with time during the 150 years period. Daily sunspot numbers were used.

13. Wavelet power spectra reveals solar activity periodicities WSO solar mean field May 16, 1975 - March 13, 2001 Wavelet power spectra shows 13,5, days 27 days, 154 days, 1.3 years periodicities

14. Sunspot solar cycles Schwabe found the 11- year sunspot solar cycle. R = k(10g + f). Gleissberg found the 80-90 years cycle. Maunder-Spörer 207 years cycle, Houtermans cycle 2272 years and Sharma 100 000 years cycle. The two peaks of solar activity, 1.3 years separated!

15. Solar activity and North Atlantic Oscillation Index

16. Solar Polar Field

17. The solar magnetic field further expand and CMEs occur

18. Proton events give positive NAO within days! Fast halo coronal mass ejection Daily solar activity and NAO

19. March 16 - April 10, 1999 (1 min time resolution) Solar mean field and wavelet power spectra

20. Wavelet power spectra of MDI magnetic mean field Upper panel shows for 53 CME events. Lower panel shows for times without CMEs.

21. Forecast Methods First principles (MHD models) (MHD models of the whole Sun-Earth Connection are good at explaining and good for education, but not so good at forecasting.) Linear and nonlinear filters (MA, ARMA, NARMA) MA filter applied as linear filter of AL.The impulse response Dst is predicted with an ARMA filter. function H of the magnetospheric system is convolved with a sequence of solar wind inputs ( Problems: Linearity, nonstationary systems, high dimensions ) Knowledge-Based Neural Models (KBNM) i.e. Knowledge (Diff eqs of physics, dynamical system analysis, filters, information theory, expert, fuzzy rules) based neural networks

22. Neural network prediction of Dst, 1990

23. Download Lund Dst model in Java and Matlab (www.lund.irf.se/dst/models)

24. Workshops arranged by us Workshops on ”Artificial Intelligence Applications in Solar-Terrestrial Physics” were held in Lund 1993 and 1997.

25. Applications Input parametersOutputKBNM method Reference Daily sunspot number SOM and MLP Liszka 93;97 Monthly sunspot numberDate of solar cycle max and amplitude MLP and Elman Macpherson et al., 95, Conway et al, 98 Monthly sunspot number and aa Date of solar cycle max and amplitude ElmanAshmall and Moore, 98 Yearly sunspot numberDate of solar cycle max and amplitude MLPCalvo et al., 95 McIntosh sunspot class & MW magn complex. X class solar flareMLP expert system Bradshaw et al., 89 Flare location, duration X-ray and radio flux Proton eventsMLPXue et al., 97 X-ray fluxProton eventsNeuro- fuzzy system Gabriel et al., 00 Photospheric magnetic field expansion factor Solar wind velocity 1-3 days ahead RBF & PF MHD Wintoft and Lundstedt 97;99

26. Applications Input parametersOutputKBNM methodReference Solar wind n, V, Bz Relativistic electrons in Earth magnetosphere hour ahead MLPWintoft and Lundstedt, 00 Solar wind n,V, Bz, Dst Relativistic electrons hour ahead MLP, MHD, MSFM Freeman et al., 93  Kp Relativistic electrons day ahead MLPStringer and McPherron, 93 Solar wind V from photospheric B Daily geomagnetic Ap index MLPDetman et al., 00 Ap index MLPThompson, 93 Solar wind n, V, Bz Kp index 3 hours aheadMLPBoberg et al., 00 Solar wind n, V, B,Bz Dst 1-8 hours aheadMLP, ElmanLundstedt, 91; Wu and Lundstedt, 97 Solar wind n, V, B,Bz AE 1 hour aheadElmanGleisner and Lundstedt, 00

27. Applications Input parametrsOutputKBNM methodReferences Solar wind V 2 B s, (nV 2 ) 1/2, LT, local geomag  x e,  Y w Local geomagnetic field  X,  Y MLP and RBFGleisner and Lundstedt 00 Solar wind n,V, BzNone, weak or strong aurora MLPLundstedt et al., 00 foF2foF2 1 hour aheadMLPWintoft and Lundstedt, 99 AE, local time, seasonal information foF2 1-24 hours ahead MLPWintoft and Cander, 00 foF2, Ap, F10.7 cm24 hours aheadMLPWintoft and Cander, 99  Kp Satellite anomaliesMLPWintoft and Lundstedt 00 Solar wind n, V, BzGICElman, MLPKronfeldt et al., 01

28. Real-time forecasts and warnings based on KBN Solar wind observations with ACE make accurate forecasts 1-3 hours ahead possible. Solar observations with SOHO make warnings 1-3 days ahead possible. Solar input data

29. The NAO response on increased solar wind E, one month later! That makes forecasts one month ahead possible. North Atlantic Oscillation and solar wind activity 11 års, 1.3 variations are seen both in solar wind and NAO.

30. ESA/Lund Space Weather Forecast Service

31. Near and farside solar activity from MDI/SOHO observations

32. Latest information on arrival of halo CME at L1

33. Latest info on forecasts of satellite anomalies (SAAPS)

34. Latest information on forecasts of Kp, Dst, AE and GIC

35. Forecast Centers (ISES/RWC) David Boteler, Director (Canada) Henrik Lundstedt, Deputy Director

36. Today’s space weather

37. Forecasts of aurora as SMS, voice messages or WAP service

38. Knowledge-Based Neural Models The basis of using neural networks as mathematical models is ”mapping”. Given a dynamic system, a neural network can model it on the basis of a set of examples encoding the input/output behavior of the system. It can learn the mathematical function underlying the system operation (i.e. generalize not just fit a curve), if the network is designed (architechure, weights) and trained properly (learning algorithm). Both architechure and weights can be determined from differential equations which describe the causal relations between the physical variables (solution of diff eq is approximized by a RBF). The network (KBN) is then trained with observations. The architechure (number of input and hidden nodes) can also be determined from dynamic system analysis (reconstruction of state space from time series gives dimension). Neural networks can discover laws from regularities in data (Newton’s law e.g.). If one construct a hierachy of neural networks where networks at each level can learn knowledge at some level of abstraction, even more advanced laws can be dicovered.

39. Cosmic ray variation at time of solar wind IR and VAI (storminess) Solar-weather relations 1981

40. Medelvärdesbildade longitudinella fotosfärsmagnetfältet 1975-2000