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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus 4 th COPS Workshop, Hohenheim,

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Presentation on theme: "Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus 4 th COPS Workshop, Hohenheim,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus 4 th COPS Workshop, Hohenheim, 25-26.9.2006

2 2 Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus@meteoswiss.ch) Outline Quick review of MAP D-PHASE Common interest and joint efforts with COPS Storage of atmospheric model data list of variables output format storage space needed Generation and visualisation of atmospheric model products Questions to COPS Milestones, organisation, and 1 st MAP D-PHASE Meeting

3 3 Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus@meteoswiss.ch) Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP) MAP: 1 st WWRP RDP Phase 1: Preparation, 1993 – 1999 Phase 2: Special Observing Period, Sep – Nov 1999 Phase 3: Analysis, ongoing (formally ended in Sep 2006) MAP D-PHASE: Phase 4 of MAP: Demonstration Focus: heavy precipitation … … and hydrology Endorsed as 2 nd WWRP FDP in Oct 2005 D-PHASE: Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region June – November 2007

4 4 Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus@meteoswiss.ch) D-PHASE Approach: Distributed real-time end-to-end forecasting system, including (limited-area) probabilistic forecasting, both for atmospheric and hydrological processes high-resolution deterministic modelling & nowcasting centralised visualisation of model data and alerts forecasters and end users evaluation, objective and subjective

5 5 Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus@meteoswiss.ch) D-PHASE Goal: “To demonstrate the benefits in forecasting heavy precipitation and related (flash) flood events, as gained from the improved understanding, refined atmospheric and hydrologic modelling, and advanced technological abilities acquired through research work during the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP).” (proposal to the WWRP) How: Distributed real-time end-to-end forecasting system, including (limited-area) probabilistic forecasting, both for atmospheric and hydrological processes high-resolution deterministic modelling & nowcasting centralised visualisation of model data and alerts forecasters and end users evaluation, objective and subjective

6 6 Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus@meteoswiss.ch) end-to-end forecasting system

7 7 Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus@meteoswiss.ch) end-to-end forecasting system QUALITY ASSESSED

8 8 Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus@meteoswiss.ch) Atmospheric models: ensembles COSMO-LEPS MOGREPS SREPS SRNWP PEPS micro-PEPS …

9 9 Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus@meteoswiss.ch) Atmospheric models: driving models and others …

10 10 Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus@meteoswiss.ch) Atmospheric models: high-resolution and others …

11 11 Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus@meteoswiss.ch) Hydrological catchments Emilia-Romagna (Reno, Secchia) Liguria Lombardia (Oglio, Mella) Bavaria (Iller, Lech, Isar) Lago Maggiore Canton of Glarus (Linth) Canton of Wallis (Rhône) …

12 12 Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus@meteoswiss.ch) International collaboration: COPS Joint data archive data (atmospheric and hydrological models, nowcasting tools, observational data) & data derived products alerts feedbacks Generation of atmospheric model products (‘quicklooks’) Visualisation of atmospheric model products

13 13 Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus@meteoswiss.ch) Atmospheric model data: List of variables to be stored TIGGE (http://tigge.ecmwf.int) – inspired:http://tigge.ecmwf.int single level fields (up to 41 per output cycle) e.g., 2m air temperature, Total precipitation: grid-scale only, Total column cloud ice (ice water content), Surface short wave radiation (outgoing), Convective Inhibition, … upper-air fields (up to 11 variables) e.g., temperature, cloud water, graupel, … on up to 9 pressure levels on (some or all) model levels For details, check here (or in the COPS/GOP/D-PHASEhere Common Data Implementation Plan!)

14 14 Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus@meteoswiss.ch) Atmospheric model data: List of variables to be stored Different output for COPS and MAP D-PHASE domains ensembles (D-PHASE domain) single level fields (22, 3-hourly) upper-air fields on pressure levels (54, 3-hourly) deterministic driving models (D-PHASE domain) single level fields (41, hourly) upper-air fields on pressure levels (54, hourly)

15 15 Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus@meteoswiss.ch) Atmospheric model data: List of variables to be stored high-resolution deterministic models single level fields (41, hourly), upper-air fields on pressure levels (54, hourly), and upper-air fields on model levels up to 4000m above msl (180, hourly) for D-PHASE domain additionally, but for COPS domain and 1.6.2007 – 31.8.2007, only single level fields (41, every 15 minutes) upper-air fields on (9) pressure levels (99, every 15 minutes) all upper-air fields on (60) model levels (660, every 15 minutes)

16 16 Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus@meteoswiss.ch) Atmospheric model data: List of variables to be stored Output format: GRIB1 (details to be specified by WG-DI) Estimated storage space: ensembles 311GB PEPS and micro-PEPS 184GB deterministic driving models 337GB high-resolution models (D-PHASE domain) 8461GB high-resolution models (COPS domain) 7456 GB total storage space for all models 16752GB

17 17 Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus@meteoswiss.ch) Atmospheric model data: Visualisation Generation of atmospheric model products with a common plotting software (which will be provided by COPS) to ensure uniform ‘look and feel’. Options: Generation on CPU and disk at M&D (triggered by COPS or model providers). Generation on computational environment of model providers. List of products to be defined … If possible, use of common visualisation tool and/or platform.

18 18 Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus@meteoswiss.ch) Questions to COPS (and observational data providers) … List of atmospheric model output variables ok? Input for list of model products? Any alerts needed? Anything missing? … ?

19 19 Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus@meteoswiss.ch) Other international collaborations Meteorisk (http://www.meteorisk.info)http://www.meteorisk.info Joint visualisation platform THORPEX/TIGGE ETReC07 B08FDP/RDP COST 731

20 20 Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus@meteoswiss.ch) D-PHASE: Milestones Completion of MAP D-PHASE Implementation Plan (and COPS/GOP/D-PHASE Common Data Implementation Plan) as soon as possible, preferably until the MAP D-PHASE Meeting in Vienna (6 – 8 Nov 2006), e.g., specification of output variables, output format, model products, visualisation platform, and data flow Dry run: 26.2 – 2.3.2007 data archive up and running model output ready generation of model products implemented data flow established visualisation platform set up

21 21 Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus@meteoswiss.ch) D-PHASE: Organisation International Steering Committee Dorninger, Staudinger (A), Rotach, Schär (CH), Volkert, Wulfmeyer (D), Bouttier, Richard (F), Buzzi, Frustaci, Ranzi (I), Mylne (UK) Working Groups WG-DI: Data interface chair: Andrea Montani, ARPA-SIM (I) WG-HEU: Hydrology and end users co-chairs: Roberto Ranzi, U Brescia (I), Christoph Hegg, WSL (CH) WG-VER: Verification chair: Manfred Dorninger, U Vienna (A) WG-DP: Data policy chair Mathias Rotach, MeteoSwiss (CH) Project Coordinator: marco.arpagaus@meteoswiss.chmarco.arpagaus@meteoswiss.ch For details: http://www.map.meteoswiss.ch/d-phasehttp://www.map.meteoswiss.ch/d-phase

22 22 Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus@meteoswiss.ch) 1 st MAP D-PHASE Meeting 6 – 8 November 2006 Vienna (‘Springer Schlössl’), Austria Topics: Probabilistic atmospheric and hydrological modelling Perturbations in high-resolution atmospheric and hydrological models New generation of high-resolution NWP models Hydrological modelling and verification Verification of ensemble forecasts Object oriented and grid point verification Nowcasting related to heavy orographically induced precipitation Cost/loss analysis and societal impact Needs and experience of forecasters and (end) users Case studies in heavy precipitation and flood forecasting Check out http://www.meteorologie.at/dphase_info.htmhttp://www.meteorologie.at/dphase_info.htm

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