1. 1 IS CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA’S TRADE PERFORMANCE STRONG ENOUGH TO REALIZE ITS POTENTIAL? Dr. Emine Demir Anadolu University Open Education Faculty, Economic and Administrative Programs

2. 2 Introduction *Central Asian region has all opportunities to become powerful economic center of the world *Central Asia span a vast territory of approximately 1.6 million square Miles *The region is inhabited by 60 million people * Half of people are of working age * The adult literacy rate is 99%

3. 3 ECONOMIC STRUCTURE OF THE COUNTRIES IN THE REGION Economic Growth

4. 4 ECONOMIC STRUCTURE OF THE COUNTRIES IN THE REGION Economic Growth

5. 5 ECONOMIC STRUCTURE OF THE COUNTRIES IN THE REGION Inflation

6. 6 ECONOMIC STRUCTURE OF THE COUNTRIES IN THE REGION Inflation

7. 7 THE NATURAL RESOURCES IN CENTRAL ASIA *Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan have important reserves of natural resources *Kazakhstan has the world’s largest reserves of tungsten, and the second largest reserves of chromites and phosphorous *At the same time, Kazakhstan has significant reserves of oil, gas and coal

8. 8 THE NATURAL RESOURCES IN CENTRAL ASIA * Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have abundant hydropower potential *Turkmenistan has the fifth largest reserve of natural gas in the world and the second largest reserve of oil in Central Asia. *Uzbekistan has the world’s fourth largest reserves of gold, and is currently the ninth largest producer of this metal

9. 9 TRADE PATTERNS AND POTENTIAL IN CENTRAL ASIA *International trade and investment *Trade and integrate into the global economy *Oil and gas wealth of Central Asian states *Possess significant electricity-generation potential via hydro-power dams

10. 10 The commodity composition of trade in the Central Asia countries * *Crude oil accounted for 62,2 per cent of exports from Kazakhstan in 2004 *Gold comprised 40 per cent of exports from Kyrgyzstan *Aluminium and cotton made up 63 per cent of exports from Tajikistan in 2003 *Natural gas, oil and oil product accounted for 84,6 per cent of exports from Turkmenistan in 2003 *Cotton and gold comprised 49 per cent of exports from Uzbekistan in 2004

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12. 12 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS International trade and investment can make ; *contribution to human development *human security *raise productivity * raise employment *boost economic growth *reducing the probability of political conflicts *increasing the variety and improving the quality of goods

13. 13 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS International trade and investment can make ; *International trade generally fosters economic growth *Reducing policy-related *Reducing institutional barriers *Cooperate with each other and neighbouring countries *Improving their transport links with the rest of the world

14. 14 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Due to their great economic potential, the Central Asian states have drawn strong attention from international Western companies. Central Asian region has all opportunities to become powerful economic centre of the world Central Asia is poised to become a major world supplier of energy, especially in the oil and gas sectors.

15. 15 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Regional preferential trade agreements have not worked in Central Asia for political and economic reasons and are not likely to do so in the near future. The Central Asian countries’ trade and investment performance has been less than satisfactory by international standards.

16. 16 THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME Dr. Emine Demir e-mail: edemir@anadolu.edu.tr