1. Greater Phoenix 2100: Building a National Urban Environmental Research Agenda Jonathan Fink Vice Provost for Research Arizona State University

2. Greater Phoenix 2100 What kind of Phoenix do we want in 2100? How do we describe Phoenix today? How do we characterize explosive growth? What tools can help forecast our future? Can science help answer these questions?

3. What’s being done nationally? Los Alamos Labs Urban Security Project USGS Urban Dynamics Project NSF Urban Research Initiative Various university institutes State/regional “smart growth” initiatives Few Coordinated Activities

4. Plume dispersion over N. Dallas modeled with HOTMAC-RAPTAD- GASFLOW system Los Alamos Lab Urban Security Initiative

5. USGS Urban Dynamics Research Program U.S. urban growth: 1975-1995

6. What’s missing? Coordinated Federal effort Federal/state/private/academic collaborations Linkage of social, biological, physical Scientific foundation for growth debates Tools for forecasting impact of growth

7. NSF Central Arizona – Phoenix Long-Term Ecological Research Decade-scale monitoring project 48 co-investigators from 14 departments ASU partners with State, cities, federal labs Complement to Baltimore LTER Ideal platform for urban modeling/analysis

8. CAP is one of two urban LTERs Phoenix Baltimore young city rapid growth arid rugged libertarian politics old city slower growth humid flat activist politics 53

9. CAP LTER Objectives Test ecological theory in urban settings Better understanding of ecology of cities Relate ecological and sociological factors Archive large body of scientific data Engage public (K-12) in scientific discovery Spin off additional research opportunities

10. LTER-related research projects at ASU (most > $300K/year) Urban airshed modeling (DOE, ADOT) Remote sensing of 100 cities (NASA) Urban CO 2 island (NSF-URI) Urban ecology grad. program (IGERT-NSF) SW Center for Env. Res. & Policy (EPA) Center for sustainable water reuse (EPA) SUPERPAVE (US DOT) Benign semiconductor manufacturing (NSF)

11. Why study Phoenix? Geographically delimited –Resource constrained (water, power) –Relatively simple boundary conditions Change is very rapid (“An acre an hour”) –Fastest growing county in U.S. –Second fastest growing & fifth largest city Typical of arid urban west –High tech jobs, little mass transit, cheap land

12. What are the boundary conditions for modeling Phoenix? Spatial: city strictly limited by infrastructure Population: well documented, rapid growth Cultural: built along Hohokam canals (AD 1000) Topography/Geology: Basin and Range Water: canals, reservoirs, streams, groundwater Air: eastward flow, CO 2 dome, “brown cloud” Land Use: desert agriculture urban Economy: mining/agriculture high tech/tourism

13. Urban fringe sharply defined Photo courtesy of Ramon Arrowsmith

14. 1912 Maricopa County land use

15. 1934 Maricopa County land use

16. 1955 Maricopa County land use

17. 1975 Maricopa County land use

18. 1995 Maricopa County land use

19. Remote sensing used for urban resource management

20. Phoenix ADEQ APSSRP ADWR ADHS ADOC Intel Motorola ASU NIEHS DOE ADOT DOT NSF EPA NASA NOAA USGS USFS DOC DOD AIR HEALTH HUD HOUSING WATER TRANSPORTATION MANU- FACTURING CLIMATE URBAN SECURITY FORESTS LAND USE USDA BLM POWER AGRICULTURE ADOA Lincoln Institute Biosphere MAG Greater Phoenix 2100

21. Greater Phoenix 2100 Targets Physical Environment –Air (ADEQ)(EPA) –Water (ADWR, ADEQ)(EPA, USGS) –Climate (Biosphere)(NOAA) –Forests (ADOA)(USFS) –Agriculture (ADOA)(USDA) Social Environment –Health(ADHS)(NIH) –Housing(ADOC)(HUD) –Education(AZ DOEd)(USDOEd) Infrastructure –Land Use(ASLD, Lincoln)(DOI) –Power(APS, SRP)(DOE) –Transportation(ADOT, MAG)(USDOT) –Manufacturing(Intel, Motorola)(US DOC) –Urban Security(LANL, DARPA, Nat Grd)

22. Greater Phoenix 2100: Which Phoenix do we want? Coordinate federal/state/academic efforts Link with similar studies of other cities Answer questions people care about Provide objective information Build state-of-the-art forecasting tools Start of urban-LTER network across USA