1. A comparative study of Central Eastern European Countries’ export performance using disaggregate data: A constant market share analysis Abel Reyna-Rivera National Centre for Research on Europe University of Canterbury, New Zealand

2. Content of the Presentation Introduction Theoretical considerations Summary of key results Conclusion

3. Data and Methodology From OECD database in the form of International Trade by commodity Statistics SITC Revision 3 4-digit level (1120 commodities) 12 sectors and 12 markets Are in nominal US$ Time period 1995 -2005

4. Constant Market Share Analysis Total = Competitiveness + Structural Effect effect effect

5. Constant Market Share Analysis Total = Competitiveness + Structural Effect effect effect Structural Market effect + Effect Product effect + Residual effect

6. Constant Market Share Analysis Competitiveness Effect + Market Effect + Total Effect =ProductEffect + ResidualEffect

7. Constant Market Share Analysis Total Effect

8. Constant Market Share Analysis Competitiveness Effect

9. Constant Market Share Analysis Market composition effect

10. Constant Market Share Analysis Product composition effect

11. Constant Market Share Analysis Residual effect

12. Table 1 – Geographical distribution of exports from CEECs 1995-2005, in percentage of total 200519951985 North America*3.662.472.89 Asia*0.560.710.60 Europe*76.0067.5444.05 Oceania*0.130.090.15 Africa**1.001.674.40 South and Central America**0.580.801.51 Eastern/Sothern/Western Asia**5.635.3411.36 CIS**6.9316.4427.10 Unallocated, unspecified or other economies5.524.947.93 Total100.00 Source: Own calculations based on UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics, 2006-07, and UNECE, Economic Survey of Europe, 2004, No. 1, Table B.14 * Developed economies, **Developing Economies Note: Total exports do not include the intra-regional trade among the Central Eastern European Countries.

13. Table 1 – Geographical distribution of exports from CEECs 1995-2005, in percentage of total 200519951985 North America*3.662.472.89 Asia*0.560.710.60 Europe*76.0067.5444.05 Oceania*0.130.090.15 Africa**1.001.674.40 South and Central America**0.580.801.51 Eastern/Sothern/Western Asia**5.635.3411.36 CIS**6.9316.4427.10 Unallocated, unspecified or other economies5.524.947.93 Total100.00 Source: Own calculations based on UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics, 2006-07, and UNECE, Economic Survey of Europe, 2004, No. 1, Table B.14 * Developed economies, **Developing Economies Note: Total exports do not include the intra-regional trade among the Central Eastern European Countries.

14. Table 1 – Geographical distribution of exports from CEECs 1995-2005, in percentage of total 200519951985 North America*3.662.472.89 Asia*0.560.710.60 Europe*76.0067.5444.05 Oceania*0.130.090.15 Africa**1.001.674.40 South and Central America**0.580.801.51 Eastern/Sothern/Western Asia**5.635.3411.36 CIS**6.9316.4427.10 Unallocated, unspecified or other economies5.524.947.93 Total100.00 Source: Own calculations based on UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics, 2006-07, and UNECE, Economic Survey of Europe, 2004, No. 1, Table B.14 * Developed economies, **Developing Economies Note: Total exports do not include the intra-regional trade among the Central Eastern European Countries.

15. EuropeCIS 2005199520051995 Bul57.742.93.417.4 Czech86.981.32.55.6 Estonia82.770.18.425.1 Hun82.374.23.110.5 Latvia79.458.311.638.3 Lithuania73.953.716.342.3 Poland81.978.77.810.2 Romania74.759.12.35.7 Slovak86.784.82.66.9 Slovenia69.973.25.44.3

16. TABLE 2 - Sector distribution of exports from CEECs 1995-2005, in percentage of total Sectors20051995 Food items and Agricultural raw materials5.148.92 Textiles,10.0316.66 Fuels3.995.07 Wood and Paper11.3813.27 Chemicals7.4010.10 Iron & Steel Industry5.038.53 Non ferrous2.044.32 Machinery12.9113.72 Vehicles15.047.18 Electrical14.708.82 Electronic12.162.63 Not Elsewhere Specified0.170.78 Total100.00 Source: Own calculations based on OECD database.

17. TABLE 2 - Sector distribution of exports from CEECs 1995-2005, in percentage of total Sectors20051995 Food items and Agricultural raw materials5.148.92 Textiles,10.0316.66 Fuels3.995.07 Wood and Paper11.3813.27 Chemicals7.4010.10 Iron & Steel Industry5.038.53 Non ferrous2.044.32 Machinery12.9113.72 Vehicles15.047.18 Electrical14.708.82 Electronic12.162.63 Not Elsewhere Specified0.170.78 Total100.00 Source: Own calculations based on OECD database.

18. TABLE 2 - Sector distribution of exports from CEECs 1995-2005, in percentage of total Sectors20051995 Food items and Agricultural raw materials5.148.92 Textiles,10.0316.66 Fuels3.995.07 Wood and Paper11.3813.27 Chemicals7.4010.10 Iron & Steel Industry5.038.53 Non ferrous2.044.32 Machinery12.9113.72 Vehicles15.047.18 Electrical14.708.82 Electronic12.162.63 Not Elsewhere Specified0.170.78 Total100.00 Source: Own calculations based on OECD database.

19. TABLE 2 - Sector distribution of exports from CEECs 1995-2005, in percentage of total Sectors20051995 Food items and Agricultural raw materials5.148.92 Textiles,10.0316.66 Fuels3.995.07 Wood and Paper11.3813.27 Chemicals7.4010.10 Iron & Steel Industry5.038.53 Non ferrous2.044.32 Machinery12.9113.72 Vehicles15.047.18 Electrical14.708.82 Electronic12.162.63 Not Elsewhere Specified0.170.78 Total100.00 Source: Own calculations based on OECD database.

20. TABLE 3 – Global results of the CMSA (1995 - 2005) in absolute terms COUNTRIES Export Market Share Total effect Competiv Effect Market Effect Prodt Effect Resid Effect 20051995 AUSTRIA1.14811.1852-0.03920.02670.0071-0.0631-0.0098 FRANCE4.39575.9167-1.5145-1.35170.0351-0.1799-0.0181 GERMANY9.727210.8827-1.1516-1.01470.0056-0.0809-0.0616 UK3.90594.8247-0.9202-1.06340.06110.05620.0260 ITALY3.58724.9699-1.3609-1.07640.0945-0.38630.0073 NETHERLANDS3.20383.4771-0.2640-0.1168-0.1315-0.07150.0558 NICs13.442911.30392.14002.87950.0509-0.80800.0176 USA9.599212.5401-2.9764-2.6090-0.2878-0.10320.0236 JAPAN6.11199.5244-3.4020-3.3186-0.14820.2134-0.1487 EU-102.63121.61071.02281.1323-0.0387-0.0705-0.0003 CIS2.26781.37020.89230.6094-0.06730.3777-0.0275 Source: Own calculations based on OECD database.

21. TABLE 3 – Global results of the CMSA (1995 - 2005) in absolute terms COUNTRIES Export Market Share Total effect Competiv Effect Market Effect Prodt Effect Resid Effect 20051995 AUSTRIA1.14811.1852-0.03920.02670.0071-0.0631-0.0098 FRANCE4.39575.9167-1.5145-1.35170.0351-0.1799-0.0181 GERMANY9.727210.8827-1.1516-1.01470.0056-0.0809-0.0616 UK3.90594.8247-0.9202-1.06340.06110.05620.0260 ITALY3.58724.9699-1.3609-1.07640.0945-0.38630.0073 NETHERLANDS3.20383.4771-0.2640-0.1168-0.1315-0.07150.0558 NICs13.442911.30392.14002.87950.0509-0.80800.0176 USA9.599212.5401-2.9764-2.6090-0.2878-0.10320.0236 JAPAN6.11199.5244-3.4020-3.3186-0.14820.2134-0.1487 EU-102.63121.61071.02281.1323-0.0387-0.0705-0.0003 CIS2.26781.37020.89230.6094-0.06730.3777-0.0275 Source: Own calculations based on OECD database.

22. TABLE 3 – Global results of the CMSA (1995 - 2005) in absolute terms COUNTRIES Export Market Share Total effect Competiv Effect Market Effect Prodt Effect Resid Effect 20051995 AUSTRIA1.14811.1852-0.03920.02670.0071-0.0631-0.0098 FRANCE4.39575.9167-1.5145-1.35170.0351-0.1799-0.0181 GERMANY9.727210.8827-1.1516-1.01470.0056-0.0809-0.0616 UK3.90594.8247-0.9202-1.06340.06110.05620.0260 ITALY3.58724.9699-1.3609-1.07640.0945-0.38630.0073 NETHERLANDS3.20383.4771-0.2640-0.1168-0.1315-0.07150.0558 NICs13.442911.30392.14002.87950.0509-0.80800.0176 USA9.599212.5401-2.9764-2.6090-0.2878-0.10320.0236 JAPAN6.11199.5244-3.4020-3.3186-0.14820.2134-0.1487 EU-102.63121.61071.02281.1323-0.0387-0.0705-0.0003 CIS2.26781.37020.89230.6094-0.06730.3777-0.0275 Source: Own calculations based on OECD database.

23. TABLE 5 - Central Eastern Europe: CMSA (1995-2005) Geographical breakdown Export Market Share 2005 Export Market Share 1995 Total Effect Competi v Effect Market Effect Product Effect Residual Effect EU-152.0835521.2958890.7869400.936353-0.086874-0.058116-0.004423 North America *0.1601840.0713830.0884980.0761140.013674-0.0018200.000530 Aust/NZ0.0070290.0033100.0037120.004172-0.000104-0.000176-0.000180 Japan0.0171990.0120200.0052370.011119-0.004448-0.001271-0.000164 Other Europe0.1351270.0551890.0799010.082846-0.002191-0.0023750.001621 CIS0.1242140.1083640.018633 - 0.0162790.040369-0.0070750.001618 Asian NICs0.0569880.0408960.0162290.0119320.004664-0.000326-0.000041 Africa/ME0.0382040.0167350.0215140.020943-0.000259-0.0000330.000864 C&S A0.0087530.0068870.0021400.005131-0.0035660.000675-0.000099 Total2.6312491.6106741.0228041.132332-0.038735-0.070517-0.000276 Source: Own calculations based on OECD database.

24. TABLE 6 - Central Eastern Europe: CMSA (1995-2005) Sector breakdown Sectors X Market Share 2005 X Market Share 1995 Total Effect Competiv Effect Market Effect Product Effect Residual Effect 20051995 Food items & Agricultural raw materials0.1353470.143686-0.0071900.0384160.004846-0.040023-0.010430 Textiles,0.2638820.268411-0.0038380.073706-0.008444-0.068274-0.000826 FUELS0.1050870.0816060.026837-0.009461-0.0017440.041560-0.003518 Wood and Paper0.2994210.2136990.0860790.126769-0.005678-0.0378610.002849 Chemicals0.1947130.1627270.0318530.0032710.0014300.0199950.007157 Iron & Steel Industry0.1323170.137357-0.0050940.004108-0.002949-0.000906-0.005348 Non ferrous0.0538040.069592-0.015825-0.001450-0.001898-0.0139930.001516 Machinery0.3396250.2209430.1189310.142053-0.003567-0.0254480.005893 Vehicles0.3958700.1156720.2789950.243464-0.0070350.0119400.030627 Electrical0.3867480.1421070.2436360.252075-0.0083740.021877-0.021943 Electronic0.3200850.0423250.2766610.266315-0.0052440.022219-0.006630 Not Elsew Specified0.0043510.012549-0.008240-0.006935-0.000078-0.0016030.000377 Total2.6312491.6106741.0228041.132332-0.038735-0.070517-0.000276

25. Conclusions An interesting result of the paper suggests that the overall export performance of the EU10 countries, during 1995-2004 has been mainly influenced by a favourable competitiveness effect. In comparison with the Asia NICs, the export performance of the EU10 countries was hindered by the unfavourable product specialisation, in particular a much lower export share in the sector of electronics.

26. Conclusions In the long run, Central Eastern Europe should remain aware of the trade growth potential associated with the Asian NICs and the other emerging economies and tend to a greater diversification of exports.