1. "There are so many fish being caught it's crazy." (According to a veteran troller for king salmon out of California's Half Moon Bay) - Pacific Fishing September 2002 "Washington's coastal troll season was productive when the biggest run of the biggest kings seen in years just kept coming." - Pacific Fishing March 2003 "There's been a lot of good stuff (chinook salmon) coming out of Oregon off the coast...the Columbia River was a real good run this year - beautiful fish - the best run I've seen out of there in many, many years." - Alaska Fisherman's Journal July 2003

2. Peterson and Schwing GRL, 2003

3. Mantua et al. 1997

4. Positive PDO Negative PDO

9. Victoria’s Secret: On the Recent Shift in the State of the North Pacific Ocean Nick Bond, Jim Overland, Mick Spillane, Phyllis Stabeno, Muyin Wang Winter - The PDO takes a break Summer - The plot thickens GCM projections for the early 21 st century

14. Gargett 1997

17. Observed coastal ocean temperature changes in summer 2005 17.5C on July 14 ~11C on July 20 Stonewall Banks Buoy SST 18 June - 2 August 2005 20 July 2005 NOAA CoastWatch image Buoy SST plolt courtesy of Pete Lawson

18. Salmon catches in June surveys: 1998-2005 Catches of coho salmon in June 2005 were lower than June 1998 during the El Ni ñ o. True also for Chinook salmon

19. 2005 - worst year on record for Farallon Island auklets (42 km west of San Francisco) Mean productivity = 0.70

22. Differences between 1999-2002 and 1994-1997 SST Clouds 700 mb OmegaPrecip. H2O

23. Warm SST off Coast Cool SST off Coast

24. SLP SST Omega H2OH2O

25. More Precipitable H2O Fewer Clouds

30. North Pacific SST Animations http://tmap.pmel.noaa.gov (and follow your nose)

31. E. Curchitser, Lamont-Doherty

32. G.A. Vecchi, NOAA/GFDL

33. Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) – Leading Mode of N.Pacific SSTA BCCRCGCM3-T63 CCSM3 CGCM3-T47 CSIROGISS-AOM GISS-EHGISS-ERINM IPSLMIROC-HiMIROC-Me MRIPCM1UK-HadCM3

34. Principal Components Black – Observed PDO

35. 2 nd Leading Mode of SST Variability

36. Temperature anomaly o C Ice concentration

40. Hori and Ueda, GRL, 2006

42. Summary 1.The “classic” PDO mode is incomplete in characterizing North Pacific climate variability. 2.The wintertime North Pacific SST variability during the last decade is dominated by a shift in the 2nd leading mode in the late 1990s. 3.This switch in the 2nd mode may help explain the occurrence of increased productivity in the CCS along with continued productivity in the GOA. 4.The summertime PDO shifted from positive to negative in the late 1990s. 5.SST anomalies along the U.S. west coast may have tangible impacts on the weather inland.

43. GCM Projections of North Pacific Climate 1.Some modeling systems appear capable of mimicking the observed variability during the 20th century. 2.The Bering Sea shelf represents a particularly useful (and important) testbed for evaluating these models.